GROWING PROBLEMS FOR ZHIVKOV

Created: 4/24/1985

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Intelligence Dally

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Special Analysis

Problems for Zhlvkov

Bulgarian partf (sedera facing ana ol trim most aitticvit periods in tha tour decades or hliJ

Alter several years ol relative prosperity and slsbility (or the nation, the realms Is increasingly worried about economic problems. International reaction against its brutal repression of ethnic Turks, and the prospect that the coming trial In Rome ol the Bukjerion Sergei Antonov, accused ol conspiring to murdef the Pope, may lorther dwmugo its reputation aboard.!

The Antonov Affair

With Ihe opening of Anionov's trial scheduled foray in Rome, Sofia is bracing for mora bad publicity In the course ot what are expectsd to be long proceedings. The regime is concerned thai ihe trial wtN expose Us Involvement In espionage and Iniernailonsl arms and drug trafficking ss well as further embroil fl tn the papsi case. The Bulgarians are apparently preparing toounlsrwisl in Sofio oosignsd to dobunk the testimony of sccusod assailant Ages and implicate the CIAomplex ploi to discredit Bulgaria!

Agslnst Ethnic Turks

The violent repression of Bulgaria's Turkish minority is drawing criticism not only from islamic countries andeal Put also from Bulgaria's allies In the Warsaw Pact.

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hen Zhlvkovecret visit lo Moscow In

Zhlvkov reportedly was told that the repression was seriously complicating Pact relations with BsiKan states outside tne Pact. One East European diplomat privately called It "untortunsts" that tha campaign was taking placeime when the USSR was trying to Improve relations with tho USj

While prepared to withstand criticism from abroad. Bulgarian officials probably are disturbed by indications ol more concrete repercussions. Turkish Prime Minister Oial has scrapped tentative plans lo visit Bulgaria. Turkey, moreover, is relying support smong Islamic countries to move UNESCO's genersl conference from Sofia thisaction thai Zhlvkov would seelow to his prestige.

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In additiont least four confirmed reports of bombings In Bulgaria, moreover, tne repression leaue has provoked at lean three bomb threats sgalnal Bulgarian commercial missions abroad and aevarat proieit demonstrations in Western capitals The laiter probably were organized bynd Islamic groupslj

Economic Problems

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While Bulgaria's economic situation is still better than that In mi countries tn Eastern Europe, na* problems have supo'-ss reportedly hove declined in the pasti drought conditions are ceusktg Oamige to i

important export to the USSR and to hard currency Low reservoirs ere reducing hydroelectric power, aoomg to ire problem- of low industrial production caused Oy the unusually harsh conditions mis past i

Prospscla

Now Eastern Europe'e senior parly leader. Zhlvkov has dependsfl on

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The ragjne hea responded by encouraging conservation of water and energy-limited blackouts for households-and by ordering enterprises to work an additional day each week. Stiff penalties are being levied sgainat wasteful energy and water users, and Ihe Increasingly atri.igent auaterlly measures sre Bkely lo cause resentment

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