Created: 4/24/1985

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Motional Intelligence Daily




Thli documanl mutl De daitroyadva workingIInotm-producad ot laelvtdual Kama may be ratalned up Kj JO dayi Cicepltona to the abeva raetrlotlotvs muat ba approval by lha orlslnator.





Special Amlysia

Problems lor Zhlvkov

leaderfacing en* of the meatooi In Ins four deeadetuium^

ccnsp.nno to murt HI

After scvora. years of relative prosperity and stability lor The nation, tha raglma la Increasingly worried about economic problems, ininmatlonal raaciion sgsinat Its brutal repression ot ethnic Turns, and Ihe prospect that the coming trlst in Rome of the Bulgarian. Sfoai Antonov. accused of compi/jno to murder tha Pope, may further damage rta reputation

Tha Antonov Affair

With tha opening of AntonoVs trial sehsdwled lorome. Softs Is bracing for mora bad publicity in the COursa of what are expected to Da long proceedings. Tha regime is concerned that tha trial will exposo Its Involvement In espionage and international arms and drug trafficking aa wall aa further embroil It In the papal caie. The Bulgarians are apparently preparing toountertrlal In So'la designed to debunk the testimony ol accused asasilent Apceand implicate tne CIAomplex plot to discredit Sugar

Csmpslgn AgelnsI Ethnic Turki

The violent reoress>cnBulgaria's Turkisn m'noMy Is drswlng CfWCtsm not only from Islamic countries snd tha West but s'.so from Bulgaria's allies In tha Wsraaw Pact. 1JBBBBJ

tho Soviets expressed st'OJigdisirapTovsTD^n'BTnTO of Tn'sTampajgn when Zhlvxovecret visit to Moscow In February tfhjjjjaj

Zhlvkov rsportsdly was told that tha repression wss seriously complicating Pact relations with Balkan stales outside the Pact. One East European diplomat privately called It "unfortunate" thst the campaign was taking plsceime when the USSR was trying to improve relations with the US.Bj

While prepared to withstand criticism from abroad. Bulgarian officials probably are disturbed by Indications of mora concrete repercussions. Turtdstl Prims Minister Ocal haa scrapped tentative plans to visit Bulgaria. Turkey, moreover, is rallying support among Islamic countries to move UNESCO's general conference from Sofls thisaction tnat Ziw^ov would sealow to his prestige


in addition tolean loo' confirmed reports of bombings in bulgaria, moreover, the repression issue has provoked at least three bomb wrests agslnst butgsrtan commerclsl missions abroad and severe) protest demonstrations in western capitals the latterare organized dy turkish and islamic groups

economic- problems

while bulgaria's economic situation is sun better than thai in mostsstern europe, new problems nave arisen. food supplies reportedly have declined in tha past year, says drought conditions sre causing dsmsgeheat, an important export to tha ussfl end to hard currency markets. low reservoirs ore reducing hydroBtactrlc power adding to the problem ol low industrial production caused by tho unusually harsh conditions this past wlntsrj

the regime has responded by encouraging conservation of water andblaokouts (orby ordering enterprises to work an additional dsy each weak. stiff penalties are being levied against wasteful energy and water users, and tha increasingly stringent austerity measures are likely to cause resentment. sjajasaBB

now eastern europe's eenlor perty leader. zhivfcov has dopended on close relations with moacow. improving living stsndaros domestic stability, and na own charisma. tha set pecks he has suffered may be having an adverse impact on his health. s|


diplomatic observers in sofia suggest zhrvkov is nol as vigorous or alert as he waa laat year. hi* political position still seems secure, but the new soviet leadership probably will be watching carefully in thaor any further ilgnarip is ico&snlng.fbbjjjj|

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