National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday5
Cable
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Warning Page
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Over SDI
Tbe Christ'.*, democratic Party's squabbling over SDI demonstrates its continuing leek Of consensus on security Issues.
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Democratic spokesman der lasl week ina strongly negative appraisal ol SDI and Wc paicntial benefitsby the Neiherlands. De Boer reportedly questionedfeasibility ol SOI and reiterated Dutch concerns Ihatbe used only for the defense of North America. He also madeindictment" of past US-West Europeancooperation and contended that Western Europe would
Olime scientific expertise by joining SOi research esaefeVJ
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Foreign Ministern Drue- 'u'tous win ocpeech because it ignored an agreement ne had win me party caucus to support the government's earlier and more balanced statements on SOI. Ootense Minister de Ruiter's reachon to tne speech, in ontrasi. was more restrained and appeared to agree with de Boer's claim thai the Dutch would derive lew benefits from SDI partiopalion.
Christian Democrat* leaders prooaoiy will be able to blocH.an Opposition motion today callingan on developing Space-basedddition, ihey win try to limii tne intraparty damage caused by de Boer by reaffirming the* supportnited Western European union response and byutch decisionest European working group reports on SDI next month.
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De Boer'sculcon-of GDI. and thec reactions irom van den Broek anc de Ruiter to it. underhnas the tackhristian Oemocralic consensus on security issues miraparty fractiousness on both SDI and INF probably will sharpen as summer progresses and as the party prepares to debate us election platformongress i" October or. tne eve of The Hague's INF deployment decision dJJJBJh
IRAN-LIBYA: Strategic Alliance
Tne strategic alliance treaty between Libya and Iran, announced yesterday. Is unlikely to alter significantly tbe miliiary orelationship between the Iwo countries. Libya said trie alliance badboon signed during tho visit laat week ot Consullative Assembly Speaker Rafsanjani. Ihe two countries agreed tooint polilical and military committee and to establish an "Army o( Jerusalem" to liberate Palestine In an implied criticism ol Syrian policies in Lebanon.condemned Ihe attacks on Palestinian camps in Beirut. Iran declared Its supper) lor Libya's right to defend Ihe Gulf ol Sidre.
HUhTfcARY-ROMANIA Strained Relations
unganan-
Romnniun relations, olten marred by disputes over Romania's treatment ol Its large Hungarian minority, have worsened recenily Romania dosed its single Consulate in Hungary in January and now reportedly is pressing Budapest to close its Consulate hi Romania. Ootn Consulates were opened as7 agreement tc resolve
dltlerences over the minority
Budapest has formally protested Romanian harassment pi Hungarian tourists atsynQSfMJMp,
SafsaaBBBBaaatRomania'I eltorts to reC^ce ccmact between Hungarians and Iheir constionais in Romania reflect heightened concern aoout Budapest's increasingly Open criticism ol Romanian minority policy and the damage this is doing to its repulaiion abroad The Romanians may also be hypersensitive about Hungary's consular and toumii contacts among ethnic Hungariansime o'.severe austerity in Romania. Although Hungarians are likely to demand that their leaders be more assertive, the Kadar regime probably will lone down its rhetoric to try to save Ihe Consulate.
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Impiuc on Cocaine Chemicals
Stroessner Is delaying the court-
ordered destruction o' cocaine-refining chemicals seized last September, citing environmental concerns. US refusal to lake responsibility for Ihe chemicals prompted Asuncion to approach the eaaaaazaBBaBBBBS" marmfac'urer. which has offered to take back the shipment aJJLyeah
Stroessner does not want to destroy Ihe chemicals and apparently isolutiontl satisfy boih drug traffickers and lhe US- it is unclear whether the manufacturer would destroy the chemicals or resell them. Public destruction of ihe chemicals wouldtrong signal lo the traffickers and improve Paraguay's reputation tor drug control. Asuncion's continued inaction, however, lends credibility to reports of high-level complicity in ihe importation of the chemicals and encourages traffickers who believe they may yet supplies.
63
In Brief
reportedly computnodzechoslovak President tlusak over booing of Soviet hockey teem last month In Praguen contrail. US team cheeredregime embarrassed but hard put to stifle anti-Soviet sentiment
Soviet party secretary Romanov signed obituary last week lor Marshal MoskatenKo ndicates lhat. contrary lo some Western reports, he has not tost poktacaldverse rumors continue, however, luggesing his position insecure fMMMM
Annual meeting ol CEMA Premiers convenes today iniN focus on CEMA's lagging science and technologyembers*0 plans likely lo emphasire taster growth of machine-but Id ing sectors andl new^
have concluded that group called United Liberation Bncade behind recent. .headed by amimonarchist politician exiled inatnmandu suspects group has support ol localeighboring Indian state aaaaa
continued
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TopSecro
Special Analysis
AHostage Situation
Amal leader Nabih Barri etercises only nominal control militiamen holding most ol lhe TWA hostages.
ong-nai inree hijackers appear to nave under taken tne operation without the foreknowledge ol either Amal or Hizballah leaders.
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i tne member ol the hijacking; team who was arrested pi con lasted that he and his two comrades belongedmall group of Shias Irom southern Lebanon whose relatives were killed or captured lighting ihe Israelis; he claimed they were motivated- for revenge against Israel. The bens and demands ol ihe hijackers tend to support his statement.
Barri's Rolo
Barn nas been trying to eiploll Ihe Inc-dent to improve his standing. among an increasingly radlcaliied Shia population. He is lighting loi his political life against eKtromitts both within Amal and from tne lundamentalisl Hit batten movement.is challenging Mm in Beirut and southern Lebanon Ann-American sentiments are running high among Amal members,umber of Am*indudttg some of Dam's lopBarn's authority and sympathize with the Hubasahffg^
Bam" probably believes that forcing the release of tne prisoners held in Israelol whom ate presumablyajor political coup thai could improve his and Amai's poliiical foriup.esinitially hoped also to place the US innis dabl byeal for the release of the Americans. His public commitment to the hijackers' demands, however, has eroded nis attempts to play boih sides
Outlook
ability to eie'clse authority in Ihe situation is limited. Many the Amai militiamen holding hostages probably are under the Influence of hardlinera and may not obey Mm II he orders lhe Americans released.
The Hizballah has strong Interests In prolonging the
situation, both lo embarrass and manipulate the US and to undermine Barri's
conhnued
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