NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY 18 JUNE 1985

Created: 6/18/1985

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iegotiations 'Egypt-SucUm High-Level Meeting

Beliraised

China: Provincial Shaaeupa Continue Turkey:Police Powers Bill Maw Zealand: By election Loss

Chile: Slate ol Siege lilted

Artillery Developments

In Brief

Special Analysis

Nicaragua: Sanoimsta Counter insurgency CHorls

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NatMh Barri and Naona

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Nabih barri hopesuccessful MaevKfl loTWA rescuing, includingelease o' Shias held in Israel, writ Increase his influence j"hia community and place thr US in his debt

aHMMBay Dwaptle Barn* aftorts to manipulate tha ht|ac"-mg to his advWToge. he is urrikkefy lo force tne release of the hostagesommitment by Israel lo free the appro*hia detainees Barrl's influence with the hijackers Is limited, especislly since some ol Ihem are Hlxbafleh sympathizers strongly opposed icBarri's moderate policies. Shia radicals have made major Inroads Into Amai'she southern suburbs Of Beirut, and Barri's supporiust be very careful in opposing their more radicalnistt openly. Bern's resources ore further strained by Amai's four-week -old campaian againsi Palestinian fighters besieged in Beirut refugee camps.

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Hkjh-Level Meeting

Egyptian President Mubarak made an unexpected one-day trip to Khartoum yesterday lo meet with Military Council Chairman Suwar al-Dahab for the ttrsl lime since the coup in Apnl. The delegation accompanying Mubarak included Egypt's Defense. Foreign Affairs, and Interior Ministers.

ubarak's trip is partew Egyptian strategy to counterubya's growing Inlluence In Sudan. It almost certainly was prompted by the visit to Khartoum last weekend ol Libyan Deputy Chief of Siaft ai-Mumaydi. OadhaH's personal envoy. Suwar al-Danab may have encouraged lhe meeting with Mubarak to undermine domestic criticism that his rcolmals unable to contain Libyan inroads

in Sudan, i

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Chlneee Ralallona Preraed

Beijing's official English-language Journal. Beijing Review,"import ani steps" by President Reaganimproverelations. Including his handling of obstacles posed bythe US favoring Taiwan. The journal also highlightedefforts to "reverse" Ihe US-Soviet miliiaryfour years ago. It repealed, however. Beijing's standard criticismUS opposition to popular Third World

Beijing Is Irying toositive atmosphere lor the visit of President Ll Xtannlan to the USonth. The language in tho article is the warmest since President Reagan's visll lo China last year. The favorable characterization of the admeVatrallon's handling of Taiwan-related Issues may be Intended lo offsetast month by General Secretary Hu Voobong on the possible use of force against faiwon as well as the cancellationisit by US naval ships to China. Similarly, ihe comment on reversing the US-Soviet military Imbalanco seems designed to establish on implicitly ami-Soviet

viewpoint on strategic issues despite improved Sino-Soviet

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CHINA; Provincial Snake up* Continue

In the largest reshuffle sinceearly hall ol China'srovincial-level party chtels may be replaced by tho encj ol June. Eight Itfst secretaries heve stepped down since April, and more Changesecied before theune deadline for provincial reorganization set by General Secretary Hu Yaobang. Most ol Iheparty secretaries are in. and several have college educations, conlormlng lo Bering's Idealounger and better educated leaders .fMmm

- lie leadership changes areeformist strength ai Deng Xiaoping and his proteges prepare for the party delegate conterence scheduled In September. Local resistance may be slowing the process, however. Now party chiefs lor Yunnan and Shanghai Provinces. pubUcly named last month by Hu Yaobang. have yet to be officially confirmed In their assignments. Some ol the new party chicls have been selected from relative obscurity, and they probably have stronger ties to Beijing's reform leadershipo trie party committees In their i

New Polk-all

Anew bill lhal gives sweeping powers lo in*ety lo put more slrein on Turkey's relations with Western Europe. Prime Minister Oral claims tho bill is necessary to allow tne government to maintain law and order when nationalaw is completely Hied, bui Ihe opposilion. including some members o' Orai'a own Motherland Parly, say It willolice slate. Socialists In Western Europe have bitterly criticized the bin. and EC officials have warned lhal it wet cause lurther deterioration in Turkish-EC rata lions Oral has reacted strongly, accusing the EC Of interfering in Turkey's internal aram asBBBBBs^

he Oral oovnosi controversial piece of legislation. Tho law defines broad new areas of responsibility for lhe police, such as regulating moral behavior and controlling clubs and organizations, and permtia police to head suspects lor up toars lor crimes mvolwng sntistate activities, conspiracy, drugs, or smuggling The strong proles Is from Western Europe and Ankara's harsh response almost certainty wet further damage relations already strained by human rights issues, frozen EC aid. and EC quotas on Turkish lenities I

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ZEALAND: Byataction Lees

The strong swing away tiom the Labor Party in lastlection wiU be partocutarty embarrassing lor Prime Minister lange's government, laoge had involved his entirehe carnoeign. Labor's share of the vote droppedompared withercent ai Ihe notional election last year. The opposilion National Party wonercent and the rightwing New Zealand Parly wonercenjjQ^jhjJargost vptei; turnout evr In a

(Although many local observers see the voters ksftweig candidate, party insiders win blame Finance Minister Douglas's austere economic policies. They wM ate (he large turnoutepudiation ot Lange's economic relorm program and will increase pre&suro in the party caucus to return to traditional welfare-stale policies. Tho announcement on Saturday Ihat Ihe government would postpone introducing its new sales taxlast-ditch of Ion to save lheIhat Lange's moderate faction is already shaken. The previously sagging political lor tunes of opposition leader Mclay. meanwhile, will be boosted by Ihe victory. At ihe seme lime, the balloting snows that the neutralist New Zealand Paily end Its charismatic leadercontinue to win Now Zealand's young conservativa

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CHILE: BUI* of Rktge Lifted

ifting ol tho seven-monlh-oM state ol siegeo*lsle ol emergency pfObatVy wll lead to an increase In oppositionnterior Minister Garoiarop In terrortsl violence fuatrfled Ine action and said the government Intends lo restore freedom of Information Heet some preae censorship end limits on public meetings and political party activities will continueI^BII^^IIBife

Still be prohibited Irom reporting such events as terrorist acts and antlreglme protests, that the nightly curfew wiU be retained, end that the Government can continue to relegate opponents lo Internal exile.

Moderate opposition patties probably will try ton the more open climate by promoting large-scale protests, and someIhe Christianbe more willing to collaborate with lhe Communist Party. Terrorism, which continued unabated under the stale ol siege, may now become more lethal as the radical left attempts lo provoke an overreaction by the regime. I

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reactions mixed thus far to Argentine's lough. opposition Peronim end their labor allies strongly criticalusiness loaders cautiouslyost AiQenlmes adopting wait-and-see altlludo.

sludy Indicates cocaine and rnanjuena abuse inncreasing rap . use spmad.no tolasses. probably rellect*vj greater supply, tower cost. y likely to aid US eflorts to locus attention on drug issue tmmWB

ffSffBBfjgBBfBffffffJI^fl^ Peruvian Iraflickers operating under polTllcaition^^TncnTigvflU against narcotics police, forcing withdrawal In somecattered violence is setback to eradication snorts.

Jordanian Primeinor Cabinet changes to consolidate his control over policyikely to Shift Foreign Minister and remove Finance and Information Minis:- fjMBk

Tunlala has raised luel and Sugar prices as much asercent io trim budgetill link future hikes to wage levelseasures fail to satisfy demands lor real wage increases,nresi . unions and poor noted over lood prices last year SJBBBBB)

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Soviet Industrial perlormance Ihrough May showed continued improvement from winterpercent Over same period lestut oil production remained net despite manaoomentra workers

com in nod

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Crachoalovak Central Comsession begins today . arty leader Husak may suggest adjustments to domestic, economicorbachev's cans loreconomic changes reportedly mace some Crechosiovsh hardlinersSBeVeV

H-ngart-oalany Polish oast paper at large discount due to Soviet pressors anted payment fromigh-quality goodsoscow apparently objecting because arrangement outside regular CEMA trade structure.

Zeirlan diss-dents based in Tanzania again altacked.sr Moba mShaba.

m,nlonlrpi key llCMiai

Libya aiTiost Certainly supported if- fafafB

flii Lankan insurgents blew up section of railway connecting Colo moo with northern cHy Of Jaffna Saturdayossible retaliation for security lorces'of IS Tamil insurgentsay hinder progress toward new negotiations.

Special Analysis

CounterinEfforts

Th* SancHnlataa arm using *oor*aalv* amalhunlt tacticstrying* *dv*at*g* of thoir tuporlornd mobility againat th* atlll-tormldabt* Inaurganta Inat tour ma/or combat lonti. Managua alao la makingse ot th* Air forcaIf ill count erinturuvncyfBBaafpt

In ihe north, small Army units ar* having (united success blocking rebel inlillfation through continuous patrolling and artory deployment.!

tains probably will hinder lha Army's abilityove troopsfor the next several monihs. especially in the mountains.ate likely loreater threat from Iheinfiltrating Irom Honduras ando rely more heavilylire support ond rosupply.fi

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