Warning Page
MOZAMBIQUE:
Independence? Annlvetaary
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guerrillas continue lo make gains throughout lha country. Thay ate acilvo In every disirtcl ol Zambezia Piovhioo and haveoads therc.l
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lnsu.gent atlacks In the Maputo araa are likely lotrrorrow, but anatould be difficult Tho Qucnlla? have navof mounted, atlacks Inside Ihe capital, and aocv'liy aroundo heavy
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fiIsction
to choosa Preildent Pertlnl't successor beginspreliminary signs favor Christian DemocraticFrencesco_
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The new president vili be chosenember electoral college consisting ol Doth houses o( Parliament endepresentatives from the regions. During the first threewo-thirds majority Is required to win; on subserjuentorlty is Sufficient. fJ^JjY jj ^)
The Christian Democratic Patty, the largest in the governing coalition, is anxious to regain the presidency, having ceded It to me Socialist Party when Pertlnl was elected. The Christian Democrats Insist, however, that the new president must also be acceptable to the other governing parties and the opposition. Most Italian observers believe that, II the Christian Democrats fa* to-elect one of their own. they win demand the premiership as compensation. The press concludes that Cosslga has the broadest potential support and Is touting him as the Initial front-runner.
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resident has not been chosen on the first ballotnd, unless the patties have fixed firmlyandidate before the Initial vote, the first three rounds are likely to be crowded with favor-te sons. MM
Presidential elections mote often than not produce surprises. Even II Cosslga tuns well In early ballots, his support is likely to weakenecision Is not reached Dy the seventh ballot, opening the way tor any
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MOROCCO-LIBYA-CHAD
Maneuvering
Efforts by King Hatsan toompromise between Chad end Libya Is-unllkely to deter the Libyans from tmUJng more military pressure on President
eeting with Habreibyan official In Rabat last week Hassan soft-pedaled an offer for Chad to [oln the Libyan-Morocear
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Comment: Prospects that Hassan might Influence Qadhafl and hopes (or economic assistance from Morocco probably lured Habre to Rabat. The French may have helped promote the meeting In hopes thai Libya's eroding position In northern Chad might make Qadhati more receptiveace-saving UDyanrawai*|atfMiaH
The Libyans, however, ate unlikely to compromise and will continue to seek ways to step up pressure on Habre. Although Libyan lood shipments Into western Sudan probably are Intended for local Sudanese rather than Ctiadian dissidents. Libya's Inclusion ot arms Indicates thajjjabre's (oafLibyan activities there is well
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In Bricl
caller has told US media Sikh Student Federation
responsible lor bomb blast on Indian plane thato connection established to bomb. In Tokyo auoarc Canaan that also originated In Toronto. f, jgj
Eaat
President Assad returned Saturday after (out-day visit toac* of communique may indicate differences, butintrias^oMb^ jjyee on goal of blocking Jordanian-PlO
Saudis preparing for trouble
Saudi Arabia and Iran have again agreed lo quotaranians for anrxial pUgrrmage loar sought substantial Increase
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an *
Use o( Beirut Airport
urposes.
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been usedumber of groups lor various nefarious pu The airport hes been used lor many yearsransit point, lor travel, orite tor terrorist activities or attacka
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Lebanese Snias use the airport (or travel to and fromseveral hijackings have begun, ended, or passed throughThe majority ol airport employees ore Shias. and taxlcab drivers provide a
support network tor Shia groups hoping to abduct-either foreign or Lebanese nationals using the alrp or:
Both pro- and anti-Arafat Palestinian groups move personnel In and out ot Lebanon via Beirut International. Until2 Palestinianterrorists made oxtensrve use of the airport to move materiel end personnel to and from Europe. Since the Israeli Invasion ol Lebanon. Palestinian use oUhe airport has declined, bui It has not ended.
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Airline hljackjn
The Amal-efftilated Musa Sadr Brigade probably uses the airport lo send some of Its operatives to Europe on missions to attack Libyan Interests, and many ol the hijackings of this group have involved tne airport. The Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction almost certainly has sent some of Its operatives and materiel to Europe through the airport. Armenian terrorists have flown from Beirut to Europe, where they attacked Turkish diplomatic facilities.'
s involving the Beirut Airport havearticular
lis persistent use ol Beirut
Airport by terrorists (or cj least IS years indicates.Ujerohronic securlly problem there.'
i collapse of the authority ol the
LoPancsc.Government In the'past thiec years has accentuated the problem
Security at Beirut International Airport Is pracilcally nonexistent, lis facilities are surrounded by impoverished Shia Muslim neighborhoods in which pro-Iranian extremists operate virtually at will. The radical Hizballah organization Is strong In many of Ihe areas adjacent to Ihe
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Special Analysis
and lha Soil Oil Market
bf OPEC and low-demand continue toressure on oilhe carta, mean In ViennauTy In another effort to restore faltering discipline. Itormldeble challenge to keep price* up. Only Saudi Arable'* willingness to cut back production over the past two yeers haseler'prlce break, but, with Seudl output at en IB-reer low. Rlyedh I* no longer willing to carry the burden elone.
HtUa or no prospect (or an Increase In Ihe demand 'or oil In the noar term. the market will remain weak and (ha pressure on prices is unlikely to abate. Non-Communist consumption ol oil continues to fall. Slower economic growth In the US, the end ol the British coal minors' strike, and gains In conservetjonnnd substation are limiting oil use In lha Industrialized countriesJ)
Adhering lo Quotas
Strict adherence lo production guidelines by OPEC couldrice cut. but this would stm require Saudi Arabia to hold production below Ihe level itThe MM tmarvaal pressures on several oir.trcreover. makeestraint unlikely Wthr^ decrease in current production levels, prices will have to fan.
It Ssudl Arabia retatoles againsi quota violators by lowering prices and sharply Increasing exports, the drop could benilateral price break by the Saudis, which cannol be ruled ouL couldlr.eolul.on ol OP EC. majfaffk,
With iholr own production so low. ihe Snudla clearly now need the other members of OPEC to share the burden ol eajjblllxlng the market through turlner culs In exports. Their oil earnings this year will not4 levels It they alone continue to absorb the slack In the market, the Saudis will have lo make further deep cuts In many .domestic and foreign Ifranclal asstslencodraw heavily on their lorelrjr(3)
Poanble Saudi Actions
The Saudis are disturbed by their declining share ol me market and reportedly will begin lo mafKet their oilthe QPECfo
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Riyadhas these actions. It wBI further weaken OPECs (slitting pricearteryear with Boeing Starviewed by those In the ou marketaio< change In Saudi oil policy and as jtjstificaifrjn for other OPEC members io violate pricing juidellnes.
Effect of Lower Prices
OPECs ability toreak In prices will be extremely limited II other members do nol begin to ahare Ihe burden of supporting prices. Although lower oil prices would help efforts to keep Inflation under control in consuming countries and encourage economicharp drop would create severe fawicial problems lor oil-producing nations with heavy debt burdens and odd uncertainly In the__
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Original document.
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