GUATEMALA: PROSPECTS FOR THE NEW GOVERNMENT

Created: 2/1/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Guatemala: Prospect-for. the New Government^

Di lector of Central IntelKaence

ational InteUigence Estimate

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THIS ESTIMATE IS ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE.

THE NATIONAL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BOARD CONCURS.

The following intelligence organiiations participated in the preparation of the Estimate:

The Controlgency, th* Defense InMJiligence Agency, the Notional Security Agency, ond the intelligence orgoniiationi ol the Department* of State and the Treasury.

Aho Participating:

The Assistant Chief of Stall io> Intefugence. Department of the Army The Director of Naval hraffcgence. Department of the Navy The Assistant Chief of Staff. Mefkgence, Deportment of the Air Farce The Director of Inteftgence, Headqvorlert, Motet Carpi

Warning Notice Intelligencer Methods Invol* (WNINTEL)

SECURITY Unouthoriied Disclosure Subfi

-Iminal Sctnctiorrs

ABBREVIATIONS

PftOPIN-

ORC

foreign Nationals to COrnroctors or

CX^ CJH t)

ledccmcmon Involved Dnse-ninotion and Extraction of Inforrnotion

Confeled by Originator This Information Has Been Aumorired for

fteiease

a t< esom * Mtme mow *Myi

A microfiche copy of Ihri document is ovoiloble fromrlnled copies fromegular receipt ol DDI reports in either microfiche or printed form can also be arranged mrough CPAS/IMC

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guatemala: prospects for the new government

annex c

Irrfonrullon avguablcaiofnjeiaiion ot ihii EflimoW. which wisbv ibc National ForeignBoard on

rs 10

Nicaragua, and sonic of the Sovicl Bloc countrin have provided Guatemalan insurgents with training, money, and perhaps tome arrru Over the part few years, however, (he success of theGovernment's cour urgency campaign and the failure of the various guerrilla groups to unify appears lo have caused foreign support to the rrlseli to diminish5 Havana and Managuato supply communications support and training assistance, while Moscow reportedly gave financial aid to the PCT/O. We have no evidence to confirm that any significant arms transfers were completed during the year

the bulk of the training given to the Guatemalan citreme left occurs In Cuba,imited amount is provided by the Sandinistasreater role in facilitating the travel of training candidates to Havana. For example,aptured insistguerrilla trainingand IS months in Cuba. The insurgentthatman platoons receivedIn Nicaragua in preparation for theirinto San Marcos Department. Guatemala,in March

trained In Cuba and Nicaragua and that most ORPAommanders and half of their troops also were trained therrLavt July,

I thatucrtiTiTirujtruct^rs^crr ir.ii.tuted (torn Nicaragua Into Guatemala iising lab tied Nkaraguan passports The new instructorswere (Colombian. Nicaraguan. and Chilean, and all traveled ai Nicaraguan rcfugrei

Solid evidence of foreign arms support in recent years is sporadic.

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inns irupment to the PGT/O. The source sayi that Managua agreed to allow the shipment to pass through Nicaragua and that the Communist Party of Elwould help transfer the arms to the Guatemalans Thus far, we have no Indication that the guerrillas have received the Bulgarian shipment.iB^H

Imurgenijteceivearnis anrJnlnersupplics through Meiico. and sometimes Belize In addition, we believe tbat land routes through Honduras for weapons from Ntcaiagua des lined for tbe Salvadorarts probably are also used to transport materiel to the Guatemalans.

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Original document.

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