NID - CHILE: NEW POLITICAL SEASON

Created: 3/15/1986

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Special Analysis

Political Season

7fte and of lha summer vacation partem hat brought renewed entlgovarnmant profit* pint Increased tha iikallhood ot vlolantha faff of Philippine Prasldent Marcos hat convinced Itrge isotora of tha moderefe opposition lhate It ripe for Increased aoelal mobilisation. Church eettvltm. and US pressure en the regime. The Communists remeln committed to vtoltnee. and Presidentalgna of growing concern In the mllltarr aoovt hit madamantly opposed to political llbersllietlon. |

oderate opposllion otr.esmount protasis over the next tew months, annougn tnay ram am dMdad on tha issue of cooperation wftn tha far ten. The moderates reported* acknowledge that the viotanca that inevnaory accompanies such protests may strengthen Pinochets hand. Out they be*eve Inaction would cede rne mutative to the Communists. Moreover, men. think that developments in the pm ppmes have pieced the

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olitical season may be more agitated thanecantecause terrortsl activity wtu probably increase dresiicaay ixv*sa PMoclset ursa.pecieOrrancUUstory stance, violence win increase and tne country may become sharply poemad Re mposillon ot mer*ate the (unie and kmportant mtliiery sectors, such as the AJr Force and the paramilitary poi-oe Eveny omcers prooabry would questionove, particularly It Pinochet also rejected new transition proposals oy iha Chorcn and m* moderate opposition.

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