Created: 2/18/1986

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Special Analysis

ol Growing Insurgent Threal

7ne Insurgentlowly gathering strength aareacts against Inflation, high unemployment,repression. Violent damonstratlons will continue)aa they have Irom time to lime over the peat twoguerrilla warfare Is unlikely toerloualha next two yaera.

Witti an Inflation rate ofercent and unemploymentairowing number of Chileans livelevels with little prospect for relief. Theto permit opposition aclfvlty.ritical press,the constitution to hold free elections has provokeddisobedience and some terrorism. The radical left Isdiscontent to build support for its efforts againstof President Prnochot.

Radical Left Progress

The Chilean Communist Party with its affiliated terrorist group-trie Manuel Rodriguez Patrioticase capable of supporting an armed struggle by recruiting and training new members, acquiring resources, eliciting foreign aid. and develoe'no popular

The government is firmly In control snd ready to deal forcefully with subversion. If Pinochet further curtails human rights In response to growing demonsiratlons. however, some elements ot the moderate opposllion may lond enough support to the radical left to enable it lo iurull-blown Insurgency In the next lew years.

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