TALKING POINTS FOR THE DDI; THE LIBYAN INTERNAL SITUATION

Created: 1/27/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Tha Libyan Intarnal Situation

whose public standingow point In Libyailed reaction frnm the Libyan ponulana to bis confrontation with In our flaw It ia unlikely that ho has significantly laproved bis internal positionesult of tha erlsls.

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Qadhafi's use of carefully staged rallies in Libya suggests that ha haa been unable to eipand bis doaestlc eupportardcore of young radicals, frees reports indicate that soaa Libyan audiences have not

a^stlcsll^YtoQadhagl't eahortatlona, and

rior to the exetcless^rewLibyans believed thai OS waa prepered to attack Libya, despite Qadhafi's warnings.

many alddle class

HMDC)

of whoa are aireany inclined agalnetthat OS econoaic aanctions would lead to the collapse of tha Libyan economy within two years, and tended to blaae Qadhafi for the crisis.

" aany laa not

carried out ailltary retaliation agalnet Qadhafi, aa they believetrike would hasten Qadhafi's downfall.

In addition, Qadhafi's actions in response to tha crisiias tightening restrictions on travel abroad by Libyans, increased ailitarlsatlon of schools and society In general, and th* constant ailltaryto aggravate the.very grievances that have fueled opposition to hi* reglaa.

ress report today Qadhafi has' sentHaiti'VTjtalTan Prima MinisterIrakis f faring^towcallfcon^iVAraba -to -halt attacksrope'an countries.Xln return Qadhafa* 'askeduaranteell"ndt' attackfcMs suggestsOS -navalIft tT 'Qadhafinfidertcej-.

WARNINGBY

INTELLIGENCE OADR

OR METHODSPROM MULT IW.E

SI

Qadhafi'a willingness to accept stiff Algerianaaibyan withdrawal from Chad, Including tha Aosouorder to me**', with President Bendjsdld may ba anothar Indication that ba la feailrtqraasura and consaquantly wishes to rsduca frictions with Algiers at almost any cost.

Va believe tba regime probably will MaintainIn th* face of immediatections, butwill resurfaoe

n tha Interior oE

coupinternal dissidents andwill lay low until tha crisis dira down In order to avoid being branded US puppets. Thoy alao may wait for Internal divisions within theeemerge before undertaking antlregime activities.

nationalist sentiment In Libya is volatile, and could

I change draatloally in tha eventilitary claah Pt suocaaafulilitary action that causes few casualties might tarnish Qadhafi's reputation for invincibility and encourage activity towards bis eventua removal. On the other hand, an unsuccessful OS strike, or one that cauaed aubatantlal civilian casuaitiaa, probably would atrengtben both bis own position and Ms efforts to promote widespreadentiment in Libya.

Original document.

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