SELECTED ITEMS FROM THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 13 NOVEMBER 1985

Created: 11/13/1985

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USSR: Supercomputer Disinformation

Soviet media continue to claim that the USSR doe. not need Western supercomputers since ll has Its own high-performance computers buporcompulera have numerous applications In nuclear weapons design, armor and anil armor penetration mechanics, cryploioay weather forecasting, and the moderrng of advanced aerodynamic vehicles. WHhm the past year, the US and Japan have worked ooether to develop safeguards for Western supen:omputors Ino deny Soviet Bloc access to I'

Soviet claims of domestic supercomputer capabilities are -xaggerated Th.owever, still hope the claims wit-influence other countries to weaken or oppose tha U3 and Japanese supercomputer safeguards piograms. If lhe USSR gained access to he detailsestern supercomputer. It might save up to five yew in developing it. own design Ihe best Soviet hioh-oerlormanc^

low* than US

supercomputan, .nc tack good mass storagend systems

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f^TVn^ ttarrfer deveicoman.beo IS year

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MOZAMBIQUE-USSR: Foreignoscow

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A Mowmbican delegation led b> Foreign Minister Chissono met briefly wtm General Secretary Gorbachev In Moscoweek anrt neid extended discussions withte,party Iniernaiional Department need Pcnomarr. 7ASSin* ruling with Gorbachevxchange of op-xons" on WalSTiernational issues and the talks wtth Shevardnadze and Ponomurov as "warm endccording to TASS. the tworessed satisfaction over their bl'aloral relations nnd Mozambique indicated Ils support (or Moscow's foreignMMg

iFoeowtng President MaeheTs recent visit to the USam probably wanted to assure Moscow ol their interest in exaWlauad close ties lo th* uSSft. The taw with Gorbachev appears toeen little moreet-acquainted session; the Soviet leader may hove expressed Moscow's concern over the prospect of increased Western Influence In Mozambique. No agreement on economic or military aid was announced, bul lha Mozambicans did endorse Soviet positions on South Africa ana Namibia, probablyow-cost demonstration of their interest in conUnued good relations.

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In Uriel

teles providing neocopler iterlngirst attempt by Quit incil members lo defend ships Irom Iranian

demonalrallows in several Spanish elites Sunday involvedotal less than some earlier protests .. lower turnout likely to Cheer Prime Minuter Gonzalez.

Nicaraguan security detained journalist of independent la Prente. searched his home lasl weekend, according toegime in past has charged reportors in similar oases with counton ary cr imes fM

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mm 0,

- protesting austerity someS stringent policies likely

Responsibility for hijacking of Ugandan airliner farrylng troopaeool spokesman denies Involvement though plane landed In rebel-held territoryikely to complicate Nairobi, talks, undercut government abilities to redeploy Iroopa.j

Students rioted In Cr.

measure]

situation nowo cause increasing unretlJ

nave begun new round ol talks on consular affairs

ntJaaTJpTJW did agree In Juno to simplify visa procedures, reopon consulates in Leningrad.urrent tl probably focusing on details for reopening consulates.!

Special Analysis

SOOTHProspects

strong showing a, righlwing pmrtlms In thm treelust month has rmlsmd thm spectercr. rervathbacklash In Sooth Africa, butliprobablf does not reflect a ,nationwide thltl to the

Although lha National Party won lou' ol tha live racea. thohtwing vote was three times higher then In the general election1 in those dietr icta. The National Party2 votes compared to tho rtghtwlng totalhe support lor the Conservative Party, which spin Irom tho National Party2 over the issue ol raoai reform, and the victory ol iherightwato Merstote Nas*onaleasoiburg-ihe first since its SoM from tho National Party in lM9-lndicaie that the parties on the right have replaced the liberal Progressive Federal Parr, as the government's principal adversary for whlto suppo-iM

The ruling National Party currently Is not In danger ol losing controlIteatsember house, andare noi scheduledf nationwide electionstoday, local observers suggest that the ryhnp party might lose noe*t. to the rxjhtveng

The recent election results probably undaratale theot the National Party. Recent nationwide opinionthat moat whites approve of limited racial reforms andpercentIhlnh Presloent Botha is doinggood Job. Theol thewere held in conservativethe rtghtwlng parties, but Ihe well-oiled machinery ofParty undoubtedly would oyerpowor Ihe smaller

partieseneral etectlonafjj

The NerSllgte Nasionale Party's new confidence atao mayinfighting The two rtghtwlng parties agreed not toother in four of the eve races, including Sasotburg. TheParty's vtciory. however, mayt less willing tojf ol election* to help the Conservative^

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Righlwing Appeal

latest election lesults do rolled tha Impact ol poliilealfy sensitive racial relorms, compounded byonths ol major black unrest end the worst economic conditions In South Africa since. Of the five seats contested. Sasoiburg was the only district under the governmont'B state-of-emergency regulations The rightists capttaided on white racial fears and benefited from voter confusion over the extent and pace of Botha's reform program Blue-collar workcs In Industrial areasfill hard by recession and highconservative partlas In larger numbers than in pest

A prolonged slump In tha economy would benefit conservatives and make whites loss wining lo accept aspects of racial reforms that affect the Job market. And South Africa's economic outlook is bleak: Inflation Is running atpercent and economic growth la expected to remainepressed rate

Rapid deterioration of the unrest would further shake voter confidence in the National Party and draw more wlMies toward the rightist parties. Moreover, growing block militancy and demands for more far-reaching rolorms win Increase the number of whitesthat limited relorms will inevitably lead to black majority rule.)

Outlook

the right wing does not pose an Immediate threal to the National Party's control ol pariiamenl, conservative gains are likely to continue bocauso ot Ihe endemic violencetagnating economy Continued dissension within Ihe National Party over relorms. meanwhile, might enable the ilghlwlng parties to persuade more of Its legislators to defect over the coming years. The threal of defections may cause the National Party to modify Its position on reformsand to adopt even harsher measures against nonwhite

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