NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 13 NOVEMBER 1985

Created: 11/13/1985

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Contents

Liberia: Coup Atlempt Apparently Falls Poland: Personnel Changes

Colombia: Aftermath9 Attach Peralan Gull: Now Mediation Effort

In Brief

Moramblque-USSR: Foreign Minister Visits Moscow

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Analyses .'

Lebanon-Syria; Peace Accord Stalled South Africa: Rightwing Prospects

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Attempt Apparently Fall*

Information aa0 hour* EST Indicatesoyal to Head ol State Doe have regained control ot Monrovia, while th*bouta ol rebels who attempted the coup on Monday -tmeln unknown.

Is calm and moat gunfire has subsided as Doe's troops move to raoccupy lha city with no apparent resistance trom rebels led ty former Co mm angina General QulwonkpaJTJBtjTJfaTaaoBBTaBoaTannounced on locu! television last night thei hla forces had quashed tho attempt and were searching forChief of Staff Dubar ordored thearreaithis morning of all opposition party leaders for questioning!

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Qulwonkpa'a followers apparently controlled portions ofhis hoinB county In north-central LiberiehortDespite Initial popular demonstrations In support ofMoniovfa. backing tor the_coup apparently erodedofan

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Uhe rebels probably met resistance from loyal members of aoe-man Executive Mansion Guard, which Is comprised predominantly of Doe's fellow Krahn trlbosmon. and trom the lat Infantry Battalion which numbersen and was established by Doe to guard against coup attempts. Allhough tho rebels remain unlocated, they may try to escape through nolahborlng lorra_Leone or Ivory Coast whore tho plot was probably hatched.

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almost certainly hoped he could take advantage of opposition protests of alleged fraud In last month's presidential and legislative elections to rally support for hla takeover. Tho ottompt, however, will now provide the Moud of Slato wtth me opportunity to firmly suppress further criticism of the elections and Intimidate opposition loaders.r

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Changes

sweeping personnel changes made over lhe lasl tow days seem Intended to create the Impression ot more vigorous leadership In key areas, especially the economy, and.to Increase First Secretoryolitical cuntroi.m

All live deputy premiers announced yesterday by Premier Zbigniew Messner have economic backgrounds. Messncr also consolidated acvcrai economic minislries and reduced Ihe number ol cabinet posts fromwo ol lhe olliciaJs with porttolioa concerned-with youth allairs ware also replaced. Most ot theew ministers are illtical unknowns who have noi held senior government positions.

Parly oversight ot the economy was changed on Mondaymember earcikowski resigned his Centralresponsibilities in. lavorolitburo member with

economic experlen

Only one mtJHaryeneral In charge ot the Mlnislry for Local

Government. loal Itis fob. while the general who heads lhe cabinet

secretariat was given ministerial rankfjj

Former Politburo member Stefan Olszewski's fall from power was finalized with his loss ot tfte foreign alfalrs portfolio. Olszewski told Western diplomats In Warsaw late lasl week he would retain the position. His replacement. Candidate PoPtburo and Central

Cornrr.lti-d- Secretariat member MarianIs

oro-Sovlet.hardliner but nonethotess has supporled Jaruzelski.

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|The removal of Olsxowakl, Jaruzalskl's mainla'probaoty the opening move In Jarualakl'e etforlsgreater control over tho party before Its congress convenesspring. The victory may have been tempered, however, byInfighting. JarurelskL to compensate tor Olezowskl. mayIO drop his rumored plans Jo elevate two of his militaryfull Politburo- 3

Olszewski has returned trom the political wilderness before, however, and couldocus oj opposition to Jaruzelski even withoutgovernment or party post.I

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9 Attack

e aftecft on trie Palace of Justice test week endIncrease In guerrilla violence In recent month*thc longstanding controversy overhandling ot thc guerrilla problem and probablyhis popular standing '

The governmeni has ruled Ojt luMhcr negotiationss winingeet wtth the Revolutionary Armed Forces ol Colomhliiuoi interested in continuing the peace process

Betancurs handling ol the seizure of the Palace of Justice Isixed reaction. Many commentators have condemned9 and express solid support (or Betoncur's actions. The0 unionized court employees, howover. have called an indellnltc strike to protost the government's refusal to negotiate lor the release ol Iho hostages.^

[The attack was the culmination of the expanding Insurgency9 has conducted since Juno, when It abrogated the cease-lire accords. Batancur probably refused to negotiate becuusc of concern that his past vacillation toward the guerrillas encouraged them to act and his tear that anything shortull-scale retaliation would have worsened relations with the military, which (eels that it Is being blamed for the Increasing violence. The affair, however. Is giving the President's politicalew opportunity to attack his policies lor peacehe country, which hove been steadily losing popular

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia is likely to accept the government's offer to continue negotiations because II has Invested too much In the elections next year to resume open warfare. At this stage, however, there probably are moreallthe truco Ihon nominally supporting tlf"

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New Mediation Effort

Quit Cooperation Council stares are apparently embarkingew eflort to mediate the Iren-lrea war following Iheir summit latt week In Qman.{

(rod last woekend for consultations

Amantary yesterday urged trie Council to Involve the

USSR In any negotiations, and Omanj Foreign Minister Alawl went to

llfto Gulf states' Increased Interest in mediation probably was prompted by their concern that tho conflict may spread because of Iraq's repealed attacks on Khark Island. The states hope that their eftorts,inimum, will deflect any Iranian hostility against them. Future diplomatic probes of Tehran are ilkeiyfl

o indication ao tar of an official approachouncil member to the Soviets, but such an initiative may be made If the situation deteriorates and tho Gulf states Judge thai the US has little influence with either belligerent. Tho Soviets would welcome an_ iroach as an opportunity to Improve tics to the Gulf st

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Foreign Minister Vlalta Moscow

A Morambican delegation led by Foreign Ministermoth Gsnerst Secretary Gorbachev In Moscow last wee* end hold extended discussions with Foreign Minister Shevardnadze and party International Department head Ponomtrov.the meeting with Gorbachev as an "exchange of eplnlons" on bilateral and international Issues and the talks with Shevardnadze and i'unofwuv aaana Irlendlythe two

rer their OlIaTerarrelations and Us support for Moscow's foreign poWcyJ

r-resiaemeceni vtsll lo the US. the Mozambleans probably wanted to assure Moscow of their Interest In continued close ties to the USSR. The talk with Gorbachev appears to have been little moreot-acqualnted session: the Soviet loader may have expressed Moscow's concern over the prospect of Increased Western Influence In Mozambique. No agreement on economic or miliary aid was announced, but the Moiambtcens didSoviet positions on South Africa and Namibia, probablyl their Interest In continued gooo relations.

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IS NmwnDtr iSiS

Anti-NATO demonstrations in several Spanishotal less thanower turnout likely to cheer Prime Minister

Nicaraguan security detained journalist searched his horns last weekend, past nas charged reporters kn counterrevolutionary crtm

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Africa

aeklrvj of Ugandan airliner (erryvigebel spokesman denies Invoh/emenl though plane landed in re bet-nek}ikely lo computet* Nairobi, talks, undercut government abilities to redeploy

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Situation now'resident to cause increasing unreal.!

- USSR. China nave begun new round of talks on consular affairsagree In June to Simplify visa procedures, reopen consulate'. In Leningrad.. current ttiiws probably focusing on details for reopening consul alas.

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Prominent Indian Journalist says Prime Minister Oandhi will offer Pakistan friendship treaty next month after President Zia ends martialeither has commentednay bo discussed when Iwo leaders meet In Oman Mondi

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Special Analysts

Accord Stalled

car bombingooting ot Lebanese Christian leaders yesterday la unlikely to altect the deadlock over the termsyrlan^brokored agreement that saaks to end the civil war and reorganize the Lebanese Government. Disputes hove arisen over the conditionseate-tlre, the distribution ot political power, end personalities. Despite Intense pressure from Damascus, numerous. Lebanese leaders across (tie polilical spectrum continue to voice opposition to the dralt agreement. Wetting militias still damlnatt the tltumtlan on tha ground, end national reconciliationistant dream.

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molnstroam factional loaders oppose the plan. The Christian community Is deeply divided over the accord, which many believe would give MuBtims too much power and grant Syrian hegemony over Lebanon^

Amal chlel Barri supports the plan, but other top Shiaegotiating with thc Christ

[Druse loaoorunwilling to deal directly with Christian militiawholstheprlmary Christian official participating in

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Syria Is pressing its Khaddam ndmllted' that Damascus doc any time un

in addition to the nearly Insurmountable polilical disagreements, the droit agreement Ignores lhc military realities ol Lebanon. Factional miliiias have stoHod out their claims to large areas ol Ihe country alter years ol battling each other and the Lebanese Army, and sporadic lightingaily event. The miliiias are unlikely to surrender their weapons voluntarily: Damascus does not yet appear witling td_ send Syrian military forces to try toease-fire. Although

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Specie) Analysis

SOUTHProspects

Tha strong thawing by rightwing parties In the livelaat month has raised the specter ol abacklash In South Africa, but It probably does not reflect*

rapid, nationwide shift to the- j

Although the National Party won tour ol the five races, tlie totot rightwing vote was three times higher than In the general election1 in those districts. The National Party2 votes compared to lhe rightwing totalhe suppori for the Conservative Parly, which split from ihe National Party2 over the Issue of racial reform, and tho victory of lha extreme rightwing Herstigte Nasionale Party Infirst alnee Ita spill from the National Party Inthat tho patties on tho right have ruplnccd the lioeral Progressive Federal Party as the government's

Federal Party

principal adversary for white

Tho ruling National Parly currently Is noi In danger ot losing control ol parliament. Iteatsember house, and general elections are not scheduledt nationwide elections were" held today, local observers suggest that the ruling party might lose no more thaneats to the rightwing partles.r'

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The recent election results probably understate the fundamental

atranglh of the National Party. Recent nationwide opinion polls

indicate thai most whites approve of limited racial reforms and Over

erceni still think President Botha Isood job. The limited

scope of thewere held In conservative districts

favored the rightwing parties, but the weii-oOed machinery of the

National Party undoubtedly woukJoverpower the smaller rightwing

partieseneral ek*ctionffJ

The Herstigte Nasionale Party's new confidence also may Increase rtghlwlng Infighting. The two rightwing parties agreed noi to oppose each olher In lour ol the five races, including Sasoiburg. The Herstigte Nasionale Parly's victory, however, may make ijjesswtlllng to stay out ot elections to help the Conservative Party

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Rightwing Appail

The latest electiondo rotlect the impact ot poUtlcaliy sensitive

racial reforms, compounded byonths ot major black unrest and

Iho worst economic conditions In South Africa since. Ol Ihe

livo seats contaatea. Sasoiburg was the only district under the -

government's stale-of-eniorgency regulations. The rightists

capitalized on white racial (cars and benefited from voter confusion

over the extent and pace ot Qoiha'a reform program. Blue-collar

workers In Industrialhard by recession and high

to* the conservative parties In larger numbers

than In past elections

A prolonged stump In the economy would benefit conservatives and

make whites less wiling to accept aspects of racial refonns Ihat affect

the job market. And South Africa's economic outlook is bleak:

Inflation Is running atercent and economic growth is expected to

remainepressed fate

Rapid deterioration of tha unrest would further shake voter

confidence In the National Party and draw more whites toward the

rightist partioa. Moreover, growing block miitancy and demands lor

more far-reaching reforms will Increase the number of whites who feaj;

thai limited reforms will inevitably load to black majority

Although the right wing does not pose an Immediate threat to the National Party's control of parliament, conservative gains are likely to continue because ot lha endemictagnating economy. Continued dissension within tho Notional Patty over reforms, meanwhile, might enable tho rightwing parties to persuade more of Its legislators to defect over Ihe coming years. The threat of defections may cause the Nattonol Party to modify Ita position on reformsdopt even harsher moasurea against nonwhlte unrest.I

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