MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA BRIEF FOR 31 MARCH 1986.

Created: 3/31/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

OT:AR 66

FROM: PAS CONTENTS

SOUTH YEMEN: RECONCILIATION DOUBTFUL

USSR-ALGERIA: BENDJEDID'S MOSCOV VISIT

NABIH BARRI'SSOUTH AFRICA: DEBT ACCORD

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I. SOUTH YEMEN; RECONCILIATION DOUBTFUL

NFIGHTING IN AOEN APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. AND THE SOVIETS ? MAY BE TRYING TOEXiJNCJlUTION TO PREVENT ANOTHER POLITICAL EXPLOSION.. _

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IROLINERS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT APPEAR TO BE GAINING THE UPPER HAND IN ADEN. AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. ATTAS'S NONPAR!ICIPATION IN THE SANAA TALKS AND HIS FAILURE TO APPEAR IN PUBLIC SINCE MID-MARCH SUGGEST HE MAT BE LOSING WHAT INFLUENCE HE HAD IN THE GOVERNMENT. MOSCOW WANTS IO PREVENT THE SITUATION FROM DETERIORATING FURTHER BUT IS HAMPERED BY THE VARIOUS FACTIONS' UNWILLINGNESS TQ COMPROMISE AND THE BY LACKTRONG LEAOER IT CAN

//ADEN'S REPRESENTATIVES AT THE RECONCILIATION MEETING. IF TAKES PLACE. ARE UNLIKELY TO BE FORTHCOMING.UCCESSFUL MEETING UNLIKELY. THE SOUTH YEMENIS'f_ TPUST IN THEIR LEADERS WILL LIMIT RESPONSE TO THE AMNESTY./i

SSR-ALGERIA: BENDJEDID'S MOSCOW VISIT

//THE KREMLIN WENT OUT OF ITS WAY TO MAKE ALGERIAN PRESIDENT BENDUEDIO'S THREE -OAY TRIP TO MOSCOW LASTUCCESS. AND BOTH SIDES PUBLICLY ACCENTED POSITIVE ASPECTS OF THEIR RELATIONS. OUT THE VISIT OOES NOT APPEAR TOALGERIA'S SLOW SHIFT TOWARO GENUINE

GENERAL SECRETARY

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IS GIVEN TO MOST FOREIGN LEADERS DURING STATE VISITS. THEMET FIVE TIMES. ONCE PRIVATELY, AND TASS DESCRIBEDAS "WARM AND FRIENDLY." IWO NEW ECONOMICONG-TERM COOPERATIONROTOCOL ONWERE SIGNED. DEFENSE MINISTER SOKOLOV ANDCHIEF OF STAFFOOK PART IN THE TALKS.AN INVITATION TO VISIT ALGERIA BUT DID NOT SPECIFY WHENMAKEJUP

//THE JOINT COMMUNIQUE APPEARS DESIGNED TO IGNORE DIFFERENCES AND GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF IMPROVING RELATIONS BYUTUAL DESIRE TO "DEEPEN" LONG-TERM COOPERATION. THE FOREIGN POLICY SECTION WAS COMPREHENSIVE BUT WAS DIRECTLY CRITICAL OF THE US ONLY IN REFERENCE TO THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND THE DECENT-CONFRONTATION,WITH LIBYA .

//ALGERIA DID NOT ENDORSE GORBACHEV'S PROPOSAL.-MADE DURING BENDJEDID'S VISIT. FOR THE REMOVAL OF BOTH SUPERPOWERS' NAVAL PRESENCE FROM THE MEDITERRANEANGREE ON THE NEEDEDITERRANEAN NUCLEAR-FREE ZONE -ND PREVENTION OF AN ARMS RACE IN SPACE. MOSCOW. FOR ITS PATH, MOVEO NO CLOSER TO ALGERIA'S POSITION ON WESTERN SAHARA, SUPPORTING ONLY STANDING UN RESOLUTIONS.

'//MOSCOW PROBABLY WAS EAGERUCCESS OUT OF CONCERN OVER ALGERIA'S INCREASING NEUTRALITY. BENDJEDID PROBABLY SAW THE TRIP AS BALANCING HIS US VISIT LAST TEAR. COVERAGE OF THE TALKS SUGGESTS THEY WERE CONS IDERABLY MORE UPBEAT THAN THOSE DURING BENDJEDID'S LAST VISIT TO MOSCOWORBACHEV IS MORE LIKELY TO TRAVEL TO NORTH AFRICA THAN ANY OF HIS PREDECESSORS. BUT FOREIGN MINISTER SHEVARDNADZE WILL PROBABLY VISIT FIRST.//

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REFERENCES IN THE COMMUNIQUE TO STRENGTHENINGCOOPERATION AND THE PROTOCOL ON POLITICAL CONSULTATIONS SUGGEST MAY BE PUSHINGRIENDSHIP TREATY. ALTHOUGH J

COMMUNIQUE SHOWS BENDJEDID IS WILLING TO SIDE WITH MOSCOW ONF MUTUAL INTEREST. HE IS RELUCTANT TO DD SO ON THOSE THAT WOULD COMPROMISE ALGERIA'S NONALIGNMENT.

EBANON: NABIH BARRI'S PROSPECTS

//MODERATE AMAL LEADER NAB IH BARRI. IS STEADILY LOSING POWER TO THE RADICALIZBALLAH.// "

//SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE UNDERCUT BARRI'S LEADERSHIP. RECENT HIZBALLAH ACTIONS. ESPECIALLY THE CLAIMED EXECUTIONRENCH HOSTAGE AND THE SEIZURE OF TWO ISRAELI SOLDIERS. HAVE CONVINCED MANY

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IS MINISTER FOR SOUTHERN DELIVER MANY ECONOMIC BENEFITS TO

IMPORTANT CONST!

LEBANESE SHIAS IHAI IHE HI2BALLAH CAN EFFECTIVELY CONFRONT THE L

lebanon, but hs_has_been un Ttuencies.//

FACES AN IMPORTANT CHALLENGE IN NEXT MONTH'S

INTERNAL ELECTIONS. HIS OPPONENT HASAN HASHIM. THE AMALD

CHIEF FOR WEST BEIRUT, HAS SUPPORTERS IN SOUTHERN LEBANON ASTHE SECURITY APPARATUS.I,

//BARRI PROBABLY WILLELL IN THE BEKAA, BUTCANITTLE FOR HIM IN SOUTHERN LEBANON. THE KEY^

LEAOER IN THE SOUTH, DAUD DAUD. IS INCREASINGLY DISILLUSIONED WITH ARRI'S LEAOERSHtP ANO INCLINEO TOWARD IRAN.//

//NEVERTHELESS. THE HIZBALLAH'S CLOSEST SYMPATHIZERS IN AMAL ARE NOT CHALLENGING BARRI IN THE ELECTIONS. SUGGESTING THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK FROM WITHIN TO WEAKEN HIM. BARRI MAY POSTPONE THE COMPLETION OF THE ELECTIONS-AS HE DID LAST YEAR-IF HE FEELS SERIOUSLY THREATENED. EVEN IF HE RETAINS THE LEA0ERSH1P. THE HIZBALLAH'S INCREASING SWAY AMONGANK. ANO FILE IS LIKELY TO UNDERCUT BARRt'S LEADERSHIP IN THE SOUTH.//

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4. SOUTH AFRICA: DEBT ACCORO

ERCENT. CREDITORS7

//PRETORIA'S FREEZEILLION IN FOREIGN DEBTS IS TO BE REPLACEO TUESOAY BY AN UNDERSTANDING IN WHICH CREDITORS WILL ROLL OVERERCENT OF CURRENTLY FROZEN LOANS THROUGH JUNE IN EXCHANGE, PRETORIA WILL ALLOW SOUTH AFRICAN DEBTORS TO REPAY THE

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WIILURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS OF SOME S2 BILLIONHICH WILL GIVE THE NATION THE WHEREWITHAL TO MAKE ITS PAYMENTS. PROVIDED MOST CREDITORS CONTINUE TO RENEW LOANS NOT COVEREO BY THE DEFERRAL. IF BLACK UNREST PERSISTS. AS IS LIKELY. CREDITORS NEXT YEAR MAY AGAIN RESORTHORT DEBT DEFERRAL IN LIEUESCHEDULING AGREEMENT TO -KEEP THE APPEARANCE OF PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOUTH AFRICA. AN INCREASE JM VIOLENCE WOULD SPEED SOUTH AFRICA'S ECONOMIC ISOLATION. CUTTING FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR DEBT REPAYMENT AMD PERHAPSOF CREOJTOR CONFIOENCE.IIV

6. IN BRIEFS AFRICA

//SOMALIA RESISTING UN. WESTERN PRESSURE TO MOVE ETHIOPIAN REFUGEES FROM BORDER AREA . .EARS SECURITY THREAT. OPPOSITION FROM LOCAL POPULATION . . OMING RAINS WILL REQlJCf FOOD. MEDICAL SUPPLIES. CAUSE EPIOEMIC AT PRESENT

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