Created: 6/1/1986

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Chile: Risiru Violence

Weat the Chilean Communist Parly (PCCh) it making considerable headway in Hi campaign to stage frequent amiregime protests.

harass ihc security forces, and gain acceptance as the country's leading opposition forces. The PCCh is one of the oldest, best organized and, after Cuba's, the largest such party in Latin America

| We believe, however, that the Communists will succeed in neither becoming Chile's main opposiiion force nor in flesubiliiing the Pinochet regime any time toon. In our judgment, the PCCh will not deviate from its basic strategy of seeking to oust Pinochet by force, and wc believe that it isimetable that calls for launching an all-oul insurrection within the next three to four yean

VteJes.ee on lh* Rise

a monthlong sene^runrvcrsT^TCcen^ duringwhich the Commenbtsrominentkfiitt terrorist activity has intensified. Over ihc May Day weekend there were numerous bombings, including one against the US Ambassador's residence claimed by the PCCh-amliaicd Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (H'MRl. and shootout* between terrorists aad police and Army units resulting in several casualties (see inset and accompanying aniek

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increasingly receptive to ihe violent line urged by the PCCh and other far-lefi

groups. Minever, leaden of nveral moderate opposition parties have tcJd the government'! heavyhanded acuorTduring recent repeated sweeps of slum neighborhoods haveense of "rage" among the poor that coniraiu wkh ihe fear produced by previous dragneu. We believe that (bis adds to ibe explosive situation in tbe slam and ultimately will benefit the Communists and their allies.

Moderate Opposition ActWIiUs Moderate exposition forces are also gearing up for more forceful amiregime activities. The key player is ihe Christian Democratic Pony (PDCk which reportedly decided recently toigorouslyational strike

8 8 9

wkh ihe PCCa. ai the risk of addinglimate ol violence and of playing into Pinochets hands. Given Pinochet's current intransigence, the moderate! seem prepared to take this risk in order to pressure the mililarj into making Pinochet more flexible.gSffJJJ

activity is likely to continueigh level for several moream panned by frequent and iacreauagly lethaluccessful pcusoaged national strike do not appear brigbl at present. Opposition protest activily. increased terrorism, aad growing unease within the government and ihe armed forces over Pinochets leadership, however, will probably leave the Preiident more aad more isotsied. He may also have to contendhaving his authority undermined within IheMany cAtcrs are beginningb ibe loundacu of his decision! and may begin to pressure him io ihift course otore open challenge from the military.pfjpj



Chile: The Dangerous FPMkI

injuring five people. Three more carone last February thatolicemen iubeen conducteder* In another development the FPMR fired rockets successfully for the first time late last year in attack* against sn electrical power plant in Valparaiso and an Army air lie-Id in Sanii:

Although the bulk of its bombings are still directed against domestic targets, the FPMR also attacks US and other foreign interests in Chile. We believe ihe FPMR was responsible for seven anti-US stuck,4 andncluding oneoca-Cola facility in Saniiago that caused S! million in property damage. In5 ihe group alto bombed vis Mormon churches and the US-Oilcan cultural ccnicr. reportedly io protest the propmed accord on ihe use of Easier Island a* an emergency landing site fur (he space xhutlle. The car bombing of the US Consulate last July was ihe lirsi FPMR, attackS Government facility I

o aniKieo" ihni the FPMR will Increase its polilical activity in oruer to eipand its nsrrow base of popular support in the cities. According io press reports. FPMR tenders say thai (he organization is still m "preparatory phase" andgeneral armedwo or ihrce years away. PCCh and FPMR leaders probably calculateuccessful popular uprising require* neighborhood rebellions and iwiiliiitgcd and nkkaorcad strikes, in addition to dramulk' terrorist

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Weeapcci thai ihe FPMR will cuminuen icrrorbt ihreal in Chile over Ihe nest two or ihree year* I

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