NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 15 OCTOBER 1986

Created: 10/15/1986

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Contents

USBR: Gorbachev Juslllies Reykjavik Pnrtormancfl US Sit-Afghanistan: No* Units Prepare (or Wlinarawni

Presidential Section Holes

Iran'Iraq; Offensive Preparations Continue

Argentine: Constitutional Reforms Proposed

Uruguay. Human Rights impasse

South Korea: Maneuvering on Constitutional Revision

arty Congress Delayed

*Electoral Redisricting

Belgium: Prime Minister Often

In Brlel

Special Analyses

Iranian Support ol Hizballah Debt Strategy

5

is ooom ise*

Gorbachev Justifies Reykjavik Performance

Inesterday. General Secretary Gorbachevore polished Image then during his remems on Sunday andone ot sorrow rathertflan anger. His mstsajrt. no-over, was j

Thc Sovieter charged that President Reagan had noi been prepared to dealn the issues despite the "Targe scale" Soviet compromises and voiced skepticism about the proposal tor sharing the benefits of SDl. In more strident language. Gorbachev claimed the President had come lo Reykjavik emptyhanded and had responded wiih the same "trash" lhat ho said was stalemating the Gcnpv i assea*^ I

Ending onrelatively positive note, however. Gorbachev coocRjoed that the work that went into tne meeting would not be wasted. Me said the path had been cleared for progress on disarmament "rt the US adopts realistice noted the USSR was experienced in dealing with the US nnd recounted nowhc internal

Gorbachev emphasized that hla proposals in Hny.|avlk had theof the Politburo, had been discussed prior to thethat'all groupsJncluding the rrWatary had baen involved n^

3 Gorbachev Is attempwig to take the hlgn moral ground

in hopes ol building US domestic and International pressure on the administration. While Indicating thai dialogue with Ihe US would continue, his reference to tho changeable political climate In Washington seemed to serve warning that Moscow Is preparedew administration. The Soviet leader appeared lo go out of ha way to refute Western speculation that he wasome lo achieve an agreement

USSR-AFGHANISTAN:

bKb3

Untie Prepare for Withdrawal JJccref ervnnounced tha withdrawal

S3rA,flMnW" tloceHe also claimed "

Tha two newly Introduced ur

units propar-:ng to par^cipaTointneceMemonlas tor tnviteoNeither ot Iho original motorized ride regimentsthese new units gtvoa any Indication ol

wnne iournaWstD may be able lo estimate accurately the number ot troops at tne ceremonies, they win not beosition to determine how many actually leave the coon trySjyogi ments. It luty manned, would amount toJ>

Theemains demoralized and under Strength and wouldhard pressed to assume additional duties. The Soviets, however, by withdrawing throe air defense regiments and one tank regiment of little utility In theanks kwrgduCssflJiom the USSR onlye puBedflHMl tnBBMaMiafJMMfvrlliTtlin

Viwm -

V. 3 6

Presidential Election

ErahadIt certain to win Ma presidential election today leap/ft recent press allegations mbout hit corruption end efforts by thoIt boycotting thtdisrupt tha

Ershad is running virtually unopposed in ine election. Bangladeshs hrst presidential haunting1 The election boycott by the leftist Awami League and the centnsi Bangladesh Nationalistthe Iwo major opposition parties-laavesErshad runningelatively unknown candidates*

ershad has been tarnished by recent press reports of hi

rinar^iai orxrupilonB but

opponents have been unable to capitalize on

er>of the

military ski supports Ershad anc sees rvm asest guarantor of Its

The opposition parties, which are boycotting the election because thoy charge It is rigged, have had trouble organizing protests to disrupt the election. The newspapers, the opposition's chief method of communicating with its supporters, have been on strike for most ol the election campeugn. Moreover, the government has banned al

ions and arrested several oo ponton leaders.

JErshad will next seek to have ParliamentIH protecting his martial law acts from legal challenge, and then he Is expecteeltcjiftmari^ which haa been In effectprocabiy haa trie necessary two-thirdsarliament to passin despite opposition from pariismeitary members Of the Awami leagueS fk

uuu

Ershad's election win. despite the opposition's boycolt, will give him some ot the legitimacy he has sought since he came to poweruring his five-year totm. he Is likely lo continue hla pro-private-sector economic poNclee and moderate foreign policy He will work to ilntain dose ties to the US and current levels of US economic aid.

ii cciMif iwo

ARGENTINA: Constitutional Raforma Proposed

An advisor) panel appointed by President Alfonsin announced po'ideally controversial recommendations for constitutional reform this week. The most Important proposal would reduce tho presidential tarm from si. years to four years and permit the chiot executive, who currently cannot succeed himself, to serve two Successive terma. The panel also endorsed adoption ot elemenlsarliamentary system, including the olfice of prime minister. The government Is pushingonelltutionai convention, delegates to which would be ejected during the congressional election in 3

_,The proposed changes are likely to meet stiff resistance irom the opposition Peronlsts. most of whom foar that allowing the popular Allonsln to run9 would doom theirwo-thirds vote of the National Congress Is required tooristrtuMone: convention, but Alfonsms party hasare majority in the Mouse ot Deputies and is outnumbered by tho PeronlsuUn the Senate -

URUGUAY: Human Right*

Prosldenl Sanguinem ia under renewed pressure to resolve the military amnesty issue following ihe Uruguayan Senate's rejection laat weekill to limit trials cf officers accused of human rights abuses unorr me previous miliiary regime Tho supreme court docldo whethnr ihe cases

' decision Sanguinettl makes will be strenuously Opposed by either the matter

I

or.iilM.onai fio.if.cn

on cons.ituUonTft.o^

ardline approach in iho Assembly would expendsnare of the political espial Chun has gained since lastino government agreed to parliamentary debaterevision. His coals would be especially high II heto crack down on opposition poatictens andrutlng-party olfiolols probablyuse the threat ofto encourage opposition moderates to supportparliamentary pr opos ay 3

J/IETNAM: Party Congress Delayed

.u. lhe congress have been marked by

unusually harsh pubhc criticisms erf the party and ofover the past decade, particularly Hanoi's inability todecline. Popular confidence in regime leaders probablyan allUme low. and support for younger leaderspartial decentrekzatton of the economic decisionhas gamed momentum over the past yearto nave the edge in setting 'he party's agenda for the nextConservative rasiatance to reform and the reluctance of theto rohnqman power^hpwever. ensure continuing tumun priorcongress >

p*r

or.rCi cling

The ssembly approved lbs government's electoral redtstnctlng bl'l oo Monday after an oopoaitton bid to censure the government toil seven votesmore then the ruling coalition'she Assembly. The bXl will now go to the Senate, where It is expected to pass quickly. The electoral redistrtcUng taw restores the two-round, majority voting system thai tne Socialistsno-rouna. proportional representation system last

Jtnij parliamentary success confirms theaoUdai

Prim* Minister Chiracs coalition

BTLGIUM prime Minister Offer. Resignation

Prime Minister Marions tendered his resignation .to King Qaudouln yesterday after falling toispute between Flemish- and French-speakers that has spat his government. The King has not ye* decided whether to accept the resignation. Martens was successful In insulating the government from linguistic rival'lea during his five previous administrationsartens and Baudouin win probably try to lei tempers cool before coniioenng a

ikVne King is comfortable with the center-right government oi tv^ens and probebry will ask him to reconsider his resignation Martens may sUI be able toompromise on the thorny linguistic problem, and hie attempt to resign may be an effort to put pressure on his party and his governing partners to reach an acoommoOatlon.olution Is not found and the resignation Is opted, Baudouin will probably ask Martens to form anothert^pariiclpatlonew election la

^SOclobe.

In Br.ef

President Mitterrand announced Monday he. will noi run In nexl French election, scheduledould changeelnchea him Irom preelection maneuvering, frees him lo pick hrsocialist infighting likely lo incense

Cube. Peru. Ecuador by

probably hopes Cuban his plan to increase Madrid's

Spanish PrimeMin7

v.sii will placate leftists participation In NATO.

Poland reducing sentences ol three of four who murdered activist priest Pop-otusiko andied to kHling of policeman may be concession to security service as roault of recant release ol political pnwnnr;fj I

Iwo Soviet arms carrwrs accompanied by Sovtet minesweeper In Persian Outf. carriers probsbry arrived Kuwaitinesweeper apparently re frigato that escortnd five arms carriers to Kuwn.iMajfj^

North Korean President Kim ll-aong lo visit USSR late thisral visit sinceikely to seek more economic, security assistanceelations Improvingoscow still does not recognize son. Kim Chong-ll. aa successor I

cciel

lb6

Special Analysis

Support at

end Ils ally Hisballah, Ih* radios/ Shia orgenlsetlon In Lebanon, view Increased Hizballah operations In aouthem Lebanonay ol expending Hlsballeh'a Influence there and ol making progress toward their goalebanese Islamic Republic. Iranian support Is an Important asset In Hizballah's Struggle tor the leys'ty of Lebanon's Shle community; Tehran's provision ot weapons and training haa helped Hisballah to emergeorce to be reckoned with. Tehran noses that attack, by Hisballah egelntl treopt. Israeli forces, and th-Isreell-becked Army ot South Lebtaon will drew even more Sftfea info the radical camp and demonstrate lhal military force can prevail tgelntt the enemies ot Islami

Irancy guidance, train,ng. and militaryfrequently artistry, em est arms, ammunition, mortars, and rocket-propeHed Revolutionary Guard personnel stat

military and paramllrlery training and Instruction Inney nave trained thousands ol Lebonose Shia2

Political and Social Tlee

ban also promotes pcwiieel, reDgious. and social activities by Hizbafian designed to establish the groupermanent political force vrtth grassroots appeal. The Iranians are helping Hizballah to create In Lebanon the kind ol mosque-cenicred network of clerics. Shia fundamentalists, and sympathizers that brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power in Iran Tehran has promoted religious and political proeetytbrlng and Indoctrination to gam new converts to the use- Tehran provided equipment andoizballah radio station in Balabakk. lenjiaHy enabSng Hizballah propaganda to blanket the country.

continued

M.I

u

Iran finance* social welfare programs trial are the loundalion of Hizbasah's appeal to tne Beleaguered Shia of southernas replaced buttdtngs damaged during fighting with the Israelis, given financial aid to wounded fighters, financed hospital construction, and provided free medtcalo thousands of Lebanese The Iranian Martyrs'odat welfare organization, haa offleea in Ba'labakk and southern Lebanon In addition, AyaloUah Montazeri. Khomeini's designated successor, has promised toenter lor Muslim theological studies and a

medical school In Beirul,

the Important goals lhat Mizbaflah shares with Tehran, the radical Lebanese group haa managed to maintain rts treedom of action. II retains close mltltary ands lo the PLO, for example, despite Tehran's low regard tor PLO chief Arafat. That connection has helped Hizballah to gain adherents and to conduct rnrirtary operations, particularly in West Beirut and southern Lebanon.

The Road to Jerusalem

Iran Is 'Ikaiy to encourage cross-border atlacks on northern Israel by Lebanese Shia even If Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon. The Iranians Would view such attacks aa serving their alms of eliminating Zionism from the region and ot "liberating" Jerusalem. Many Iranian leaders also appear to believe that Hiiballah operations inside Israel and on ihe West Bank would encourage the growth of Islamic acthrlsm In those areas, but there Is noevldence that Hizballah Is actively considering such operations"* <

Tehran and Hizballah leaders see UN lorces In Lebanon as aiding Western and Israeli Interests by helping to protect Israeli forces and operations. Iran views the Israeli presenceerious obstacle to ItsIslamic Republic In

IS6

Special Analysis

Strategy

Is llkel, to push hard tor concessions to reduce Its debl repayment burden In Ihe coming round ot negotiations with foreign commercial banks. Deaplte Its hard line In public, however. It probablv will not adopt radical policies to achieve Ita oblectlves. US banks currentl,illion Iqercent ot the total commercial bank;

Presidentovernment will begin negotiations wtth lis commercial creditors late thU month to reschedule debts Ihat rail due during the next live years BrThird World's largest debtor -has publicly indicated mat it must ease the foreign debt burden to -sustain strong economic growthesult, some International bankers foresee contentious

Although tho government has yet lo set its negotiating position. OraiHian officials repeatedly have said they win atrlve to reduce net debt payments from moreercent of gross domestic product this yearercent next year. The difference will be used to help fund additional importe and domeatlc Investment neeged to maintain economic growth and alleviate social ineaulties.-fJ IM

have said they veilowerpercerrt reouction could payments to about 3

ercent target

Of gross domestic product next year eek new voluntary loans that woutd burden and allow Brazil to meet Its

return for lower Interest payments. Brazilian officials may be prepared to negotiate an agreement with therequired to obtain debtafter the congressional elections next month. The government realties that an accommodation wtth the Fond is necessary to reschedulebis io foreign government creditors through the Pails ' ft

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