NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 16 JULY 1986

Created: 7/16/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Security Priorities lor Punjob

postponementthe thirdthe trenster ol territories between the Steles ol Punjab and Heryeno suggails that Prima Minister Gandhi's first priority is controlling Ihe extremists In Punjab, fBtaasassj

I Punjab Chief Miniate- Bnrnala lold New Delhi he is preoccupied with improving Ihe security situation in Punjab and would preler to delay meetings with the commission in charge ol Ihe transfers. Punjab security forces arrested more Ihanuspected Sitfh extremists^ weekend, aid New Delhi has sent additional paramilitary troops to thc Pakistani border In an ellortlock intilrraticn oy Sikhseliegodlyakistan. Sikh extremists yesterday told Sikh moderates In Punjab they are witling tone-month "uCe

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Joth Gandhi and Bamaia may be using security issues a: an excuse lo avoid lhe no-win situation resulting from tie territor-al transfers. Gandhi risks losing political supoorl wiih Hindus and his Congress Party il ne appears to be gfvlng loo much to Barnafa and the Sikhs. Barnala's political opponents in Purdah, meanwhile, are portraying tne transferellout of Sikh interests to .N'rjw Oetht.

Gandni may have concluded that the crackdown on Sikh extremists, if successful, would strengthen Barnala's position and night in time allow Pun|ab to go through with tne transfers awarded by the commission.i

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USSR: New Airliner Programs

The Soviets are developing three new elvuMr- Irare superior to Westernhe aircraft will emphaslie efficiency and fuel economy and will incorporate lochnosogies roughly equivalent to current Western stale of thedigiial avionics, sidestlck controls, composite

Comment: Ihe new Soviet aircraft are unlikely to malch-the performance Of those In the West or Io offer much sains competition cicept ir. client States. Previous Soviet experience suggests Ihe aircraft win rci meet Moscow's oerformance claims, in pan because the USSR has been slower than me westproducing new manulacturing technologies. Nevertheless, tne transports will probably givo Aeroflol additionaln augmeniing miliiary cargo aircrall in carrying troops and.esser extent, equipmentariety ot domcslic and internatio"al missions!

USSR: Minister of Machine Tool Industry Replaced

Panlcnev has replaced Boris Baimcet as Minister of the Machine Tool and Tool Bunding industry.eaM^ k

Balmcnt. who had held iho post since-as said to nave retired, allhough hc is

I The change reflects General SecretaryIO root out resistance to his industrial moCerniialion He recenlly t 1I

rnacnme tool industry will serveodel for other industrial sectors, ine Ministry has come under public attack for low-quality production, and Premier Hyihkov crltrcned Salmon) lasl month lor failure to support managerial reorganization intended to spur technological innovation end to raise elliciency. Salmon! had also proposed performance targels for his Ministry that were less ambitious than national plans. Panlcnevtrong proponent of rapid relucting and modernization o' the machine tool Industry. He favors tho importation of Western robols and control systems lor equipment.aysJpJfJ^rjf^fB^psBB

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In B'iel

Papua New Guinea banning commercial, cable television pending government study . influence bom US. other imponedan Clouds Investment

President Mubarak beginning whirlwind Trip to several European capitals. arranged on Short noticexpected to ask lor increasednd support In dealing with IMF on Cairo's severe debteesaj

Saudircreasing In Julyore . et back Ion lulaser barrel lor Arab Light PEC anger aver Saudi moves may dampen prospects lor production accord at meeting nest

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con.'tnued

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Special Analyst*

J Pressing Oil Expo'l Project*

is steadily rebuilding its oil export capabilities despite domestic financial shortages, the world on glut, and Iran's miliiarye recent attack on 'he Karkuk olllietd. Baghdad has taken exceptional measures to defend Ils new facilities Irom military threats and lo continue Ihe projects In hopes of higher oil earnings alter that are completed.

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the Program

The economic problems tnat naveIreo to cut moons and mm OeBt payments are unlikely to prevent the reouiirjing ot the oil eaporl system. Construction1 oe funded hy tore.gn credits. Da-tared o'lownpayment. and Iraqi currency to cover local costs. Given Ihe weakness in Ihe word's oil construction and services market. Baghdad is likely Jpjind contractors willing to accept Ils repayment lerms.

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Special Analysis

N.il Move

sent troops into West Beirut primarily to counter the growing number ot Palestinian lighters there loyal to PLOratsiSyrian

iop ihe factional

lighting In Wesl Beirut, however, and Damascus probably it prepared to increase the number ot troops It necessary to rein In or expel the Palestinians or to put pressure on Ihe Christians In East Bv rut.

Damascus Ms become increasingly alarmed Ol PLO tighlers returning lo Lebanon.,"

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Syrians have been concerned for some lime over developing cooperaiion between Arafat loyalists and ihe Iranian-backed radical Shia Hiiballah. Tney nave accused lhe Oruze ot helping :noeturn io Bcir.il and are worried lhat even President Gemayel is trying toelationship wiih the Palestinians.

The Syrians are trying to bottle up Palestinian fighters in the refugee CJmpC and Jo cut aff Uie.fr supplies. They have stationed troops along the coastal road ard at the Khatdah junction to block additional fighters andom infiltrating through the Druze port at Khaldah. Syrian control of 'he airport road severely resiricis Ihe movement of Palestinians to and Irom ihc camps. The Syrian forces want to avoid fighting the PLO direcily but have already been atiacked sporadically and are too few to impose permanenl stability in lhe city

Possible Future Deployments

cennnuea

The Other major infiltration route for Palestinians returning to Lebanon Is "

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Special Analysis

in Abu Nidal Attacks

recent pause in terroristoperations by the Abu Nidal group is probably the result of several lactors: roluctance ol Syria end Libyappear implicated In such operations, the group's perception ot improved security in Westsrn Europe, and Ihe teilure ot King Hussein's peace initiative. Tne organisation is probably using this period to reevaluate tactics, lighten security. train new members, and ptan future Operations. It also may be considering whether to conllne Its activities to support operations for other groupshile end reduce, the scale 'ol Its own operations.:

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The group has staged no attacks since those al the Home and Vienna airports lasl

Reasons for Reduced Terrorism

US bombing of Libya last April and international publicity about Syria's terrorist connections have almost certainly lorced Abu Nical to reevaluate the eonsecucnces of new

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The group staged most of its attacks last year in Western Europe and some of iis members are still jailed there. The strength of its network in Western Europe, its record of successes, end the wide selection of targets make it unlikely Abu Nidal will shut down operations inr

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Special Analysis

Insect Pljguea Threaten

rain/mil$6 hat provided eacetlent brooding conditions for grasshoppers end locusts InIhc most serious insect three! to the coailnent in CO yeers. The situation it especially critical In Sudan, where Immediate ection Is needed to stem tne continental spread ol two locust species andrevent severe damage to Sudanese cop

nasi andighted ii theoramb for the fii

tnreaiei Niger. Mali. Senegal.

problem isnsect populations to

atory locuasanzania.

hoou. est Uganda

-noncy is spreading lest and west. Ita have been oulhMalawi, and

ec iccusts. as nas Kenya.

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Elsewhere in westernauritania are also in danger Although the tr control, lavorabje rains could cause the ease quickly.

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souinern Africa brown locuais areyear high In both South Africa and Botswana. Despite extensive spraying, control has been poor. Major agricultural areas are still unaffected, but with favorable rams locust populatona could increase and spread nett year to Zimbabwe Mozambique. Zambia, and Angola

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control efforls appear to beesternbut in eastern Africa counter measures are proceeding slowly, umess control measuresudan cry nest month, spread of the migratory and desert toc-stsamage in surrounding countries could be significant, and In Sudan the loss could approach that ot pastmuch as one-third Of the first year's crop andubsequent years. IIocust plague can last nearlyears and couldore serious crisis than the recentm^^^

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