MEA BRIEF FOR 3 SEPTEMBER 1986.

Created: 9/3/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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PAS CONTENTS

I. BANGLADESH: PREPARING FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2. SOUTHERN AFRlCA-USi FRONTLINE STATES FRUSTRATION 3. FRANCE-LEBANON: UNIFIL CONTROVERSY t. INTERNATIONAL: NICARAGUAN BID FOR NAM CHAIRMANSHIP S. SOUTH AFRICA: OPPOSITION RALLIES 6.

7. IE BAUDS; SING OVER UNIFIL 8*

9. AFGHANISTAN: REGIME'PLANS IH BRIEF

I. BANGLADESH: PREPARING FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

PRESIDENT ERSHAD IS SETTING THI STAGE FO*JHE PRESIDENTIAL

Approved for Release

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ELECTION TO BE HELD IN MID-OCTOBER AND AN ENO TO MARTIAL LAW, THE OPPOSITION IS LIKELY TO POSE OBSTACLES TO HIS PLANS.

THE BANGLADESH GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED. ELECTIONS OWOUIG BE HELD ONCTOE

ERSHAD ALSO VOLUNTARILV RETIRED FROMH ANO RELINQUISHED HIS POST AS ARMY OHJEf Of STAF

ICLADESH'S MOST SENIOR ARMY OFFICER.

. BUT THE IN THE

ERSHAD STILL HOLDS THE POSTS Of CHIEF MARTIAL ADMINISTRATOR ANO COMHANOCR IN CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES CONSTITUTION REQUIRED HIM TO RESIGN FROM THE ARMY TO RUN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

MEANWHILE. THE PARLIAHENTARY OPPOSITION. HEADED BY THEAWAMI HAGUE,l*-KOUfl HATIONAL STRIKE HOHOAYTHE IMHEOIATE LIFTING Of MARTIAL LAW ANO TO PROTESTOF SELECTIONS ONUGUST FOR EIGHT PARLIAHEHTARYJATtYO'PARTY WON ALL EIGHT SEATS. BUT THE OPPOSITION .CHARGES ,THE VOTING WAS RIGGED AND HAS EWJ>

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SERVE OtftY OH AH 1

THIS LAW

ES HAVE GATHER

? HHHI ERSHAD SEESPflESI DEHTl AL ELECTIi CH HE WOULD ALMOST CERTAIftlYA MEANS TO INSTITUTIONALIZE HIS RULE. HIS TURNING OVER OF THE POWERFUL POST OF ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF TO RAHMAN HAD IS CONFIOLNT HE RETAINS THE ARMY'S SUPPORT.OM PHYSICAL AILMENTS ANO WILL PROBABLYBASIS

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ERSHAD IS LIKELY TO CALL PARLIAMENT INTO SESSION LATIfl MONTH TO VOTE ON THE BILL THAT WOULD LEGITIMIZE HIS MARTIAL ORDERS. ALTHOUGH THE AWAMI LEAGUE AND OTHER OPPOSITION PARTI REFUSED TO APPROVEILL. THE GOVERNMENT CAN THE NECESSARY TWO-THIRDS VOTE TO APPROVE PASSAGE.

THE CONTINUEO AGITATION BY THE OPPOSITION REFLECTS THE LIKELIHOOD GF ITS BOYCOTTING THE ELECTION IF ERSHAD DOES HOT HIT MARTIAL LAW. ERSHAD. THEREFORE. MAY APPROVE AM EARLIER OF MARTIAL LAW AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT PASSES THE RATIFICATION. OROER TOREDIBLE ELECTION OPPONENT IN OCTOBER

OUTHERN AfRICA-USs FRONTLINE STATES FRUSTRATION

RECENT CALLS BY INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED LEADERS Of THE INT-ST

TATES fOR CLOSER COLLABORATION WITH THE USEXPECTATIONS iHAT THE WEST COULDUICK fl*

HLV'^IIIHt LEADERS AGREED IH

ST WEEKAGUE PROGRAM Of ACTION AGAINST SOUTH AfRICA THAT INCLUDES PUSHING FORI" DIPLOMATIC AHO ECONOMIC AID TO NEIGHBORING STATES. THE LfADEHS. HOWEVER, WERE,UNABLE TO REACH ACfllfMENT ON THE IMPOSITION Of SANCTIONS. ffjjfjjftft3

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ff ERENCES AMONG THE fROHTLINE STATES-ARE EVIOEHT OH OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES. BOTSWANAi CAN NATIONAL

SECRET

HE CALLS FOR CtOSEfi COLLABORATION WITH THE USAFRICA ANO THE UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS THAT THE VESTROWING SENSE OF FRUSTRATION. SOMEHOPEKEHOUSE CONFERENCETO BLACK HAJORITV RULE IH ZIMBABWE. THE CALLS BY SOMEHOWEVER. SUGGEST THEY BEL ICVE THAT COMPREHENSIVEWOULD SKUT CC-NSUUIHCONOMY ANO FORCE THE BARGAINING TABLE.

FIGHTING IEBAHO

RECENT HILITIAS UNIFIL.

RANCE-LEBANON; UHIFIL CONTROVERSY

BETWEEN FRANCE'S UNIFIL CONTINGENT AND AMAL FOP.CING PARIS TO RECONSIDER ITS POSITION ON

STIR CHIRAC AND DEFENSE MINI ST Sk CIRAUOWITHDRAWING FRANCE'SOO-MANSTATEMENTS_lfl_IKE

CKS ON WESTERNERS

(CHIRAC ALMOST CERTAINLY BELIEVES THAT HEIGHTENED ENSIONS BETWEEN THE UNIFIL TROOPS AND AMAL HI LIT ISUPPORTED BY PRO-IRANIAN HIZBALLAHENDANGER FRENCH HOSTAGES IN LEBANON. HE ALSO PROBABLY TEARS THAT IF UNIFIL TROOPS AREBIIC OPINION WOULD TURN SHARPLY CRITICAL OF HIS EFFORTS TO- StOVWT Ttff RELEASE OF FRENCH HOSTAGES BY NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH TEHRAN. CHIRAC. WHO HAS APPARENTLY CONSOLIDATED CONTROL OVER HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS. PROBABLY HAS NOT YETEO TO WITHDRAW FRENCH TROOPS BUT IS UKEIY TO CONSIDER REDUCING THE FRENCH COMMITMENT TO UNIFIL II THE UN DOES NOT UNDERTAKE TO PROTECT THE TROOPS ANDCCOjflINUE S. MITTERRAND IS UNLIKELY TO CONFRONT CHIRAC OH THI flBs jj>

HIZBALLAH PROBABLY INTENDS TO EXPA IN UN FORCES. PART ICULARLY THE FRENCH.

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b. INTERNATIONAL: NICARAGUAN Bin FOR NAN CHAIRMANSHIP

O CHAIREING MET WITH GROWING OPPOSITION.

MANAGUA TJBMIHBHAS RECOMMENDED TO ZIMBABWE , IHE THAT IT I'm VENT THE ISSUE FROM BEING TAKEN UP UNTILFOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING. LAST WEEK SEVERAL LATINBOLIVIA. COLOMBIA, JAMAICA. PANAMA. ANDRES ERVATI ON TO JiANOIDACY. ZIMBABWE'STO AVOID FORMAL, DISCUSS ION OF THE

ISSUE DURING THE MEETING, WHICH ENDS SATURDAY, aft 2

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* POSTPONING THE C

iEVERAl COUNTRIES HAVE INOICATEO THE IR PREFERENCE FOR CHAIRMANSHIP DECISION. ANO MUGABE CAN AVOIO RESOLVING THE ISSUE THROUGH PARLIAMEHTARY MANEUVERING. MANAGUA MAY STILL PRESS ITS CANDIDACY, HOWEVER. HOPING THAT MEM8ERS HILL NOT PUBLICLY OPPOSE IT. MEETINGS EARLIER THIS WEEK INVOLVING CUBA. PERU. ANO NICARAGUA MAY INOICATiLAN TO SELECT PERU'S PRESIOEHT GARCIA AS THE NEXT CHAIRMAN IN EXCHANGE FOR HARSHER ANTI-US LANGUAGE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN SECTION Of THE COMMUNIQUE.

OUTH AFRICA: OPPOSITION RALLIES

BLACK LEADERS AREASS PUBLIC FUNERAL TOMORROW IN SOWETO TOWNSHIP FOR BLACKS KILLED IN THE CLASH WITH POLICE LAST VIE*. THE ORGANIZERS. INCLUDING THE UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT AND THEOUTH AFRICAN TRADE UNIONS, HAVE HOT COMPLETED PLANS BUT HAVE INVITEO WHITE> CROUPS TOHETORROSAf LY VI LILACE RESTRICTIONS ON THE GATHERING BUT NOT PROHIBIT IT.

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_ THE FUNERAL CDULO BECOME THE LARGEST DEMONSTRATION SINCE-THE STATE OF EMERGENCY WAS IMPOSEO. ANO BOTH SIDES ARE LIKELY TO SEE IT AS AH IMPORTANT TEST. RESTIVE BLACKS ANXIOUS TO CHALLENGE THE GOVERNMENT WILL REGARD THE EVENT AS AH IMPORTANT ACT OF DEFIANCE AHO WILL BE LOOK IHG FOR SIGNS OF HOW MUCH PROTEST PRETORIA WILL TOLERATE. THE GOVERNMENT PROBABLY HOPES THAT PERMISSION TO HOLO THE FUNERAL. COUPLEOHOW Of FIRMNESS. WILL EASE TENSIONS IN SOME TO.EAVY SECURITY PRESENCE IS CERTAIN. BUT SECURITY FORCES PHOBABLY WILL BE INSTRUCTED TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT IN AN EFFORT TO AVOIO VIOLENCE.

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LEBANON: SHIA BICKERING OVER UNIfIL

A RECENT WAVE Of ATTACKS AGAINST THE UN INTERIM FORCES IN LEBANON DEMONSTRATES THE MAINSTREAM SHI* AMAl'S DIFFICULTY IN CONTROLLING EXTREMIST ELEMENTS WITHIN ITS MOVEMENT IH SOUTHERN LEDANON AND THE HARDENING OF THE PRO-IRANIAN HIZBALLAH'S ATTITUDE TOWARD THC PEACEKEEPING FORCE. MOST ATTACKS HAVE BEEN DIRECTED PRIMARILY AGAINST THE FRENCH CONTINGENT. BUT NORWEGIAN. IRISH. AND FIJIAN UNITS HAVE ALSO BEEN ATTACKED, ACCOROI

COMMENTI THE ATTACKS ON UNIFIL ARE BYPROOUCTS OF THE HIZBALLAH-AfUL RIVALRY IN SOUTHERN LEBANON AND ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY. ESPECIALLY If HIZBALLAH SPIRITUAL LEADER MUHAMMAD HJSAYN FADLALLAH PUBLICLY ENDORSES THEM, THEY ALSO REFLECT HIZBALLAH'S GROWING BELIEF THAT ITS AGGRESSIVE CAHPAIGN AGAINST AMAL ANO THE ISRAELI PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON IS BEGINNING TO PAY OFf. THE NATIONS REPRESENTED IN UNIFIL ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNEO ABOUT THE VIOLENCE ANO ARE ECOHiJDERINC THEIR COMMITMENT TO STAY IN SOUTHERN LEBANON. ft|

9. AFGHANISTAN: REGIME PLANS RESETTLEMENT

KABUL APPARENTLY HOPES TO REDUCE SUPPORT FOR THE INSURGENTS AND CONSTRICT SUPPLY ROUTES BY0 FAMILIES EASTERN BORDER TO THE SPARSELT SETTLED WESTERN PROVINCES,!

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AHO OOMUfKG ATTACKS IH KIT Al EAST HAVE AIRIAOY DEPOPULATED MIS' ARIAS ALTHOUGH SUPPORT TNIHILI CS THAT HAVE HOT UD

ARE NOT LI KELT TO HOVE VOLUNTARILY, HOWEVER. AHO THE CQVIKNrUNT Will ALAOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO USE FORCE TO ACCOMPLISH TS GOAIS IfWClil *

N BRIEF MlCOLE EAST

APMCTeS IO FLEE

v. MINISTERIAL CHANGES IN MAURITANIA

ihister ousted,

AFRICA

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