NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 3 SEPTEMBER 1986

Created: 9/3/1986

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Con ton Is

for Presidentialr^rveuvertng

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Bolivia: Tensions Ease

Internatlorul: Nlceraguan Bid foe NAMOppoaition lo ProposedAfrica: Opposition Rartes

Lebanon: Shia BlcAemg Over UNIF1L

Regime Plana Resettlement

Phlllpplnee; Now Leftist Party Form ad

rjolrvo To Meet Muslim Loader

In Brief

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The Insurgency Thlt Summer Syria: Now Pressures Posed by Economy

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to* Prealdentlel Eiactkm

-ras/danf fr.hedne (hea for rhe presfdenffe/fo be na/cfmf toaw. btrtTfnr-apfroBlllaf, It Ukalf to pate obataclat to hit plant. SjWMbt

Tha Bangladesh Govwnment announced yesterday that presidential otacilons wouM be rytd onctober

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also volunlarlty retired horn the military onugust and relinquished his post as Army Chief ol Staff to Mai. Gen. Atlqur RahmnnJJan gin dash's mod senior Army ohloor, SjWafJjWpsWaaW v.

Admlnlslralor and Commander In Chief of the Armed Forces but /

Meanwhile, the parllamenlaryJon. headed by theLeague,ix-hour national strike Mondsy toimmediate rifling of martial lew and to protest the resultsonugust for eight parliamentary seats. Thewon alt eight seats, but the opposition charges that Ihe votlno 1rigged and hasew vole.

from^jgcal aflmenls and will probably

Erahad Is Hkary to cal Parliament into session later this monthhat would legitimize his martial law orders. AlthoughLeague and other opposition pertiea have refused toa bin. the government canc<wsary two- ,vote to approve pessage.P

tatMMaa* Ershad sees the presidential election-which he would certainlyeans to Institutionalize his rule. HIV over of the powerful post of Army Chief ol Staff lo Rahman that Ershad Is confident he retains the Arfcy's

Rahman reportedly suffers fror serve only on an Interim basis.

The continued agitation by the opposition reflects the likelihood oftho election If Ershad does not first lift martial law.may approve an earlier lifting ol martial law as soonpasses the ratification bin In order to have aIn October.

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PAKISTAN

A new moderate party nea ipllt tha opposition, andPresident Zla amy rlam Ita founderotential seccesaor to Prime^

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Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, lormer leedor ol the People's Party inproclaimed last weekend thai his now NationalIsue heir to Prime Minister Bhuttos legacy, butthe demand ot Ihe oppcefiton led by Bhutto'stor early Woclions. Jatola would-be political partnerwas arrested Saturday on hit return from setHmpoeed exile on iearlier charge ot plotting agalnat lit7

A senior Muslim Leaguethat the ruling party

teefs secure because ol Bhutto's tenure to sustain heron public

meetings there has been lifted and thaiouthern Slnd have returned to their barracks

P-wpfc's Perry, which would ensure that Bhutto's ractlcaJ advisers win continue to control opposition strategy. Bhutto, who hasday detention order agamn her. will be hard put lo counter Jatol from jail. fMJgM

Jatol wants lo eetabllsh rUmeetlredible alternative to Jurvejoand denies havingeal with Zla. Even eg, both Jatolhas taken pains lo distance himself from in* recantfrom Junejo'sare keeping iheir options open.Indicator of Zla'e Inlentlons Is likely to be the handling ofagainst Khar, whose base of support In Punfab Jatol needsIs to build his partyational force. The release of Kharat the least, that Zia wants to lest the Jstol-Khar team's , eJtlifs.^

Junejo almost certssnfy welcomes me aplR in the opposition and there are tew moscationa mat Ziareparing to replace him. ai tne same time. Junefo sees Jatolhreat, andreetment ofsource of Melton between

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BOLIVIA: Tensions EiM

Tn**u'8 of sage imrjosedThursday has 'o'esfalod ma (orand bought time for the gtn/ernmeni toecovery ptan . troubled mining Industry

ajaWmost ol theiners who partk^ated Inrotest march have gone home and that La Pea has released the ISO labor leaders and

Is trying to take advantage of the current calm to implement long-term solutions to Bolivia's On crisis snd avert prolonged labor agitation He wW have to stretch an already llghl budget to provide alternate employment and compensation to tintraditional politicalhac.red.by the closure of unprofitable stale-Owned mines, i

1 Sawembar ISM

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MTERffATIONAL:or HAM Chairmanship

Nicaragua's bid to chair lhe Nonaligned Movementic-baiog motwlnfj

BeateeWrte Managuarecommended lo Zimbabwe, tho current chairman, thatrevent the Issue from being taken up until8 foreign ministers* meeting. Last week several Latin AmericanBolivia, Colombia, Jamaica,

discussion ot the Issue during the moating, which ends Saturday.

everal counlries have Indicated their preference for postponingmanship decision, and Mugabe can avoid resoMng. the Issue through parliamentary maneuvering. Managua may stltf press Ha candidacy, however, hoping that members will not publicly oppose It. Meetings earlier this week Involving Cuba, Peru, and Nicaragua maylan to select Peru'a President Garcia as the next chairman In exchange for harsherS language In the Central American section of the communique. <

URUGUAY: Opposition to Proposed Amnesty

politicians haveool rocoptlon to President Sangulnettl'B proposed amnesty for ell officers aosysed of human rights abuses under tho previous military regime. Althoughotes needed to pass the blri In Congress.

as decided to press off art expected supreme court fiction over tho trials to civilianilitary concern over the Issuep their public campaign for

Although congressional Intransigence could still derail the proposal, SangutnettI wtll probably workompromise with opposition moderates over the next few months. He may be willing to allow exceptions to unconditional amnesty to gamer the additional dozen or so volos ho needs In Congress. Most political loaders outside the far loft want to resolve this sensitive Issue. Human rights trials In civilian courts would compMceto already tense cMl-mflttary relations.;

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SOUTH AFRICA: Opposition Rtllin

Black loaders mm planningmass public funeral tomorrow an Soweio Township for butctca kBhsd In tne dash wUh police last wenfc TIM vQ&mrGta. including the Lrnrted Democratic Front end tho Cong-oas of South African Tradeave not completed plans but have Invited white arill apartheid group* to paiticlpato <JMlKPrelcrU projtabjy wHI piece restriction* on tho gathering bul not prohibit I,

'Tt^rxakl become thetate ot emergency waa Imposed, and both atoee are lately to eee It as an Important teat. Restive blacks anxious to challenge the goverrirnent wBl regard the event as en Important act of defiancel be looking tor algna of how much protest Pretoria wta tolerate. The government probably hopes that parrntsston lo hold the funeral, coupled wtthshow of firmness, win eese tenstoneeavy security presence la certain, out security forces probeWvjwW be irartxercisen effort to avoid vtolenoe. ffeM

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LEBANON kVhU Bickering Over UMFVL

recant wave ol attacks againat the UN interim forces Inmon*1rataa tne mairtstnaam Sha Amai'a difficulty In controlling erVernial element* within Its rncrvarnent In southern LebanonTsria lhe) hardening ol the pro-Iranian Hbrbailsh'a attitude loward the peacekeeping lores. Most attacks have been directed primarfy against the French conllngenl, but Norwegian. Irish, and Fijian units have also been attacked..

The attacks on UNIFIL are trvproducts ol the Httbaiuuv Amal rhrstry In southern Lebanon and ar* Ikefy lo brtsratfly, especial

endorses them. They also reflect rutttfanTgrosnVsfltscampaign against Amal and the tsneeUouthern Lebanon la beginning to pay off. The nations rsprssertted In UNini. are IrK^sejlngly concerned about lhe violencecornmltment to stay In southern Lebanon, i

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AF0HANI8TAM: Regime Plana Reeettlement

Kabul apparently bopea lo reduce eupport for the insurgents and constrict supply rouleo by0 lamMes from the eastern Jwrder to the sparse* seilled western provinces, i

decision lo'overpopulelW end . ,

the regime wW noi rely strict* on voluntary movement but that It win use force. The government has not announces; when lhe

Heavy fighting and bombing attacks In key regions In the east have already depopulated many areas, although support (or lhe insurgents remains significant. The families that have not fled are not likely to move voluntarily, however, and the government will almost certainly have to use force to accomplish Ifa goals. Forcible relocation would probably prompt many ot those affected to flee to Pakistan.

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Philippine New Leftist Party Formed

Tho former head of the ConvrwrWl Newrmy, Bemaoe Buecayno. and the founder of the Commvntsl Party of the Philippines. Joae Maria Sison.ew politicalnoweekend to field candidates in local and legislative elections expected next spring. Roisndo CHaiia, heedarge Commuritt-dominated labor federation, was elected party chairmen Advertising itsetf as the "People'sepresenting the woridng and middle ctaases, the party la stridently natlonallattc and advocates the removal of foreign mBrtary bases from thesSJJMf" J

new party almost certainly will functionommunist front group, despite claims by Sison and Suscsryno that they have severed their Ilea to the Comrmmasi Party.opular rvon-Communbrt. apparsntty wtl serveigurehead to attract moderates. The formation ot the partyharp shift In tactics by the Communists, who presumably Intend to avoid repealing the mistakes ol previous election boycotts. The new party's prospects In next year'sould be good-eepedaih/ al the local level-It Presiderrl Aqu.ro remains unaova to improve economic conditions in the countryside.

Aquino To Meet Mushm Laede*

President Aquino wffl meet wtlh Moro National Liberation FrontMisuari this week to discuss ending lhe Mushm insurgency inPhilippines.who up lo

I that predominantly Muslim areas eecede from the ireturned IrompossdAsxfe an the MkMe

East lest weekendnited front with other Philippine Muslim groups lor negotiations with the government

no probably hopes tcettlement based on the Tripoli Agreement ofprovides guidelines for limned Muslimon the artlcfea In the proposed draft constitution that would formally establish autonomous regions In the Muslim sections of Mindanao. She should garner political cap rial at home and abroad for her apparent willingness to compromise on Muslim grievances.el lona Hum within the Muslim community will make It very difficult toettlemeni that aat sfjws all Muslimasting cease-fire Is unlikely faWrsal

Special Analysis

Insurgency This Summer

Afghsn fnaurge/ira neve beefl ecffVe fhfs summer, ttUcttirg lit. urban areas and along kef Nnat ot communkrsr/on

raafstsftee is won lad, howwrmr, trwt ccHtnlerlntvrg+rrcr mill reduce fn*n* ttghUno II can sustain (hfa raff.

hasthis autnrner In and around Afgtu.rrfstan's threend Qendahar. The triswgents probably hoped that pushing the flgtrtlng Into the towns would help reduce the pressure on their supply lines and base campe and retute government aaaertiooa that the urban areas were under regime control, flTaVf

rocket attacks'

and explosions In the capital last spring, the frequency and extent ot such actMty Increased beginning hi early July. To conduct sabotatge operations kn Kabul, the kneurpente have had to penetrate elaboratencluding restricted rooee *no>numeroui checkpoints and guard poata-|

around Qandahar have made Infiltrating men and mater* Increasingly dflTlcurt, but aastaaagjasjeja^^

that 8ovlet and regime foroes* gains from this surnmerTbatflee nave been ItmHed jg control of lhe airport outside the city and ot the road

During the summer. Herat has been subjected to repeated Soviet and )lme attempts to clear the Insurgents out of the city.

continued

O* isse

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The Soviets may believe that their recently augmented air powerIntense air operations will compeoaalo In part (or the Inabilityforces toarger portion of the fighting and forof the two motorUed rifle regiments Ihat Soviet leader proposed leu mcnih.

Analysis

Powd by '

Syria la In Ita moral economic altlmp Unca President Aaatd aaltad power in WO, and, despite modest reform* and new oil

panto. Biterx/ed

hardship* tor thm Syrian population and pressures onbudget may fore. Assad to Introduce personneladditional reforms and, ultimately,capegoat,thorough overhaul of the economy Is

Three yarns of failing domestic output and weak markets for tin principaloil and phoaohaiea-hava shrunk Syria's exports by SSOO million since tflM. Foreign aid has also (Mien by simoeteroenlo0 mittonconomk; problems have grown worse over the past year as surging Inflation andjrfdespread shortages have butfeted the entire

FeeaWig the Pinch

r^joafita of Damascus hava been especially electrical power outages lasting afshortages of food and other necessities forceSyrians to queue for several hours athis year estimated Ihe annual rale of Inflation atpercent. Syria'a hard currency short age-aggravated "promised oil-has reached critical

economic decline stems from misdirect ad Balhtsl socleltsi economic policies, the mlHtsry burCan imposed by Assad's drive for strategic parity wfth Israel, andyear-old military Invofvonvsnl In Lebanon. The coals associated withan armed forces and extertsrve Soviet and Easl European military deliveries wtfl continue toources from more productive ur^^gfchtSjjfe ,

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Oea*mg Aimrm

Syria's leaders have scknowleOgad me gravity of currentbut the Ba'lh Party ts likely to derail significantand Increased domesticproduction probaWyexpectations, rjamascus taciuy recognized its noaoirecently for lhe first time by allowing private Importersbarter arrangements to use the Wack-marketpounds perIs blowing tourists and Syrianto buy atounds per

Nevertheless, the exchange rate reforms Initiated by _

Economy and Trade Minister 'Imedl. which were deefgned to curb Syria's extensive smuggling network and bring more transections Into official channels, wfii not subetsrrUalfy Incraase foreign exchange) reserves or shore up domestic rlrtirvcee. Nor wfll higher domestic oHIs likely to fump0 barrets per day thisthe foreign payments crunch, although It win somewhat reduce Syria's reliance on Iran and lhe spot ntsrker laWKfe

Ah hough economic problem* will continue to bedevil therule Is noi In danger, and he win probably do little moread hoc reforms and perhaps personnel changes. Moat ofanger has been directed thus far at cabinet members,Prime Mlnhrter Kasm, who are kJenlrhed wttfi economic policy,laary candidate lor dismissal.

At this stage, Assad Is probably unprepared to push the reforms

i st opgap measures Improve foreign payments and Increase pnvate-seWor production, but major policy Sberaitiallon Is unlikely. Syria almost certainty will also continue to press Its radicalandecD-vomle help In return for close political relatione.

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Svpupit* toee

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