IRAN-GULF STATES: PROSPECTS FOR EXPANDED CONFLICT

Created: 5/17/1986

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

6

Special Analysis

STATES;

Cor Expended

MJ around operations

Seudl ind Iraqi policies ere not being coerdlnefed, but both ere adding tlgnlfleant nam ttralnt lo han't already troubled economy Tehrena cnofcee. more freou.nl .Hacks onIn tho southern Oulf, Increased uso ot terror It subversion, end now ground, air, snd missile attacks

i JinoaItaqs sporadic air am

have struck targets that ale vital to Iran's domestic economy. Including oil refineries at Tehran and fisfshsn. Iran's rail link to _ v. jrjd possibly pumping stations that move oil to the refineries.

The Iraqi attacks appear to be aimed more directly et undermining Iranian crvftan morale then were previous raids on Khert island and ranian tankers. The loss of gasoHne and fuel oil supplkes and imports through Turkey would be felt Immediately, damage to Iran's o- export capacityore indirect Impact. Iraq will have to sustain an effective bombing campaign, however, to Inflict enough damsoe to force the clerics to reconsider their war

Iranian Optlone

Aa Its economy declines further, Iran Is likely to Intensify its campaign -gainst Guff

SEP 9

dm, SB

.6

attacks on Gut! snipping faM to change Rryadhs policies, Iran is alrncsi cansjnio tumftofiynbu and cine* Ciul* state

ore aggressive tactics probably will prompi Iranian leaders to try to regain tne initiative. Tehran Is likely toeries ofecks at .arlous points along the border, hit Baghdad wtth Scud missiles, or strike at Iraqi economicale* orTenatva during Is unlikely but cannot be ruled

the summer

Proepecle

The confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia threatens to broaden the Iran-Iraq war and turn ft Into an Iranian-GuM statesevelopment Iren had attempted to avoid until recently by soekmg good reiailons with the littoral states. Tehran's willingness to take such risks now Indicates the seriousness of the threat to Its economy from declining oil revenues and more effective Iraqi attacks. The conflicting objective, of the parties-Iran's extermination to oust the Be trims in Baohded. Iran's hoc. of ortnrJirv, me r

Original document.

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