Created: 6/3/1987

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Special Analysis

Tensions in Kosovo Province

Tensions between ethnic Slavi enr* Albanians In Yugoslavia's Kosovoof two provinces In the Republic ofho/gflfened rocently, ratting the chance of communal violence. The ftepubllc ot Serbia Is trying to use these tensions to reassert control over tho Albenlen-Comlnated province.inimum, /nterreojonjiNioJpm/cs will flarearty planum later this montlt.M.

Kosovo's Serbs and Montenegrins Increasingly complain they aro being pushed to other parts ot Yugoslavia as Albanians buy their land and harass them. Tensions rose anew In lato April when police attempted to breakemonstration of more0 Serbs and Montenegrins protesting dlsaimtnatlon

Serbian leaders are exploiting ethnic Serb rosentmont against the Kosovo leadership. Serbian officials probably allowed nationalist Intellectuals from Belgrade to help organize the April protest, which sought to focus the national spotlight on Serb concerns.entral Committee plenum of the national party only days later, Serbian leaders aired their compjahits. accusing local Albanians ol genocide against Kosovo

Nonetheless, Serbian officials almost certainly want lo avoid

communal violence and are trying to contain Serb passions. They

probably encouraged the appeal for calm that the Serbian Orthodox

Patriarch made when he spoke onay atanancient Serb religious

cento*ostly Albanian part of KosovoM


Serbs wfll try to use the Central Committee plenum to renew their push tor constitutional Chang as that would allow them to Increase t their control over the province. Kosovo's Albanian leaders will resist and will trysupport of other regions that also fear Sorb domination.

An uneasy calm Is tho best that national leaders can hope lor In the next few months. As the Koeovo Serbs become more organized,olitical spark could result In violence Security forces, and If necessary the Army, would probably contain and crush any large-scale disturbances The more distant northern republics went political tensions between Serbia and Kosovo to remain In check,ailure at least to maintain the Se-bs' position hi Kosovo win fuel Serb national!!

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