MIDDLE EAST ASIA BRIEF FOR 20 APRIL 1987.

Created: 4/20/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

- CONTENTS

1. PLO-ALGERIA: PALESTINE NATIONAL COUNCIL MEETING .

AIR HA: REACTION TO SOVIET ARMS' DEAL

DROUGHT COMPOUNDS KAUNOA'SLEBANON91SftAEli CLASHES IN SOUTH LEBANON INTENSIf

LEBANON) DRUG DEALINGS BY CHRISTIAN MILITIA

TAN: RAID HJJC TAJIK SSR 7. SRI LANKA: MASSACRE ENDS CEASE-FIRE

N BRItr

PLO-ALGERIA: PALESTINE NATIONAL COUNCIL MEETING

PLO CHAIRHAjh" ARAf AT'S APPARENT AGREEMENT TO ABROGATE THE AMMAN

b(3)

b(3)

b(3)

)

G c

0

6

>'

E

s S

G E

N G

M

E

S

s

A

G E

MM

co? rot: loesiti aph B?

ACCORD CN HIOOLt EAST PEACE HE REACHED WIT*5 MAS PAVED IHE WAY ALESTINENAL COUNCIL MEETiMG IN ALGIERS SCHEDULED TO SEC IN TCP. At. AMD THi: JB'J NI DAL CROUP "AY PARTI CI Poll AS AN

THE

TIMING Of THE MAT IONAL COUNCIL OPENING iS UNCERTAINTHE ISSUE Of PLO-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS REGAINS UNRESOLVED--BUTAL ANO OECISIVE PHASE.

fMSMrV ARAFAT CONVENEO THE PLO EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE YESTERDAY RATIF* ABROGATION OF THE AMMAN ACCORO BEFORE THE MEETING BEGINS..THE STATEMENT YESTERDAY BLAMES THE US ANO ISRAEL--NOT JORDAN'S KING HUSSElN--FOR FAILURE OF THE ACCORD ANO SIGNALS THE PLO'S INTENTION O PURSUE PEACE TALKS.

EFFORTS TO FIOMPROMISE FORMULA GOVERNING THE PLO'S'RTlATIONS WITH EGYPT MAY PUSH BACK THE OPENING OF THE COUNCIL MEETING. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE SOMETIME THISTHE GENERAL COMPROMISE AGREEMENT OOES NOT UNRAVEL. ARAFAT IS LIKELY TO RESIST DEMANDS THAT HE BREAK RELATIONS WITH EGYPT. WHICH HAS SPEARHEADED THE EFFORT TO INCLUDE THE PLO IN AN INTERNATIONAL PEACE CONFERENCE. IF THE REPORTEO TEXT OF THE AGREEMENT TO ABROGATE THE AMMAN ACCORO IS AUTHENTIC. EMONSTRATES ARAFAT'S INTENTION TO PUSHAUTIOUS STATEMENT THAT SAT ISFIES'RAO ICAL OEMANDSYMBOLIC BREAK WITH JORDAN BUT DOES NOT BURN All BRIOGES TO KING HUSSEIN AND HIS MODERATE ARABMHk

IF THE ABU NlDAL GROUP HAS PLEOGEO TO RENOUNCE INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. IT ALMOST CERTAINLY DIO SO PRIMARILY TO GAIN ACCESS JO THE COUNCIL MEETING. THE GROUP'S LEADERS PROBABLY SEE PARTICIPATION IN THE MEETINGAY TO ENHANCE THE GROUP'S STATUS WI'HIN THE PALESTINIAN* MOVEMENT ANO TO TRY TO RAOICALUE THE PLO. ABU NIOAL TERRORIST OPERATIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY OUTSIDE ISRAEL AND THE OCCUPIEO TERRITORIES. ANO THE GROUP IS UNLIKELY TO ABANDON THE ANTI-WESTERN TERRORIST ACTIVITIES FOR WHICH IT HAS BECOME KNOWN.

2, ZIMBABWE-SOUTH AFRICA: REACTION TO SOVIET ARMS DEAL

ARMS DEAL WITH THE USSR ARE

ST IRRi^GdHm^EWITHIN PRIME HINISTEH MUGABEOVERNMENT. BUTRESPONSE HAS BEEN

b(3)

J

b(3)

,

b(3)

b(3)

b(3)

)

N

G

U i

N G

v

S

s

i

N G

M

ft

r

SECRET

THEMES.

PRETORIA'S RESPONSE TO THE ACCORDR MAS BEEN LOW-KEY. DESPITE WIDESPREAD MEDIA COVERAGE IN SOUTH AfRlCA. REPORTS IN THEERNH1HT PRESS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO CRITICISM OF THE NEGATIVE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES FOR ZIMBABWE AND Of MOSCOW'S EFFORTS TOINFLUENCE THROUGH MILITARY RATHER THAN ECONOMIC AID. DEFENSE

THE ONLY OFFICIAL TO COMMENT. HAS REPEATED THESE

THE RANGE OF TERftS IS GENEROUS. HARARE COUID AFFORD THEM WTTiTQU' ECONOMIC DAMAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT OVER THE LONGER RUN THE ADDITIONAL DEBT WOULD AGGRAVATE ZIMBABWE'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE PINCH THAT IS ALREADY CAUSING SHORTAGES OF SOKE CONSUMER GOODS.

THOSE SENIOR OFFICIALSEHBERS OF PARLIAMENT WHO OPPOSE THE ARMS DEAL ARE UNLIKELY TO TAKETRONG STAND AGAINST IT IF THEY BELUVE THAT MUGABE SUPPORTS THE AGREEMENT. MUGABE. AS HE HAS ON OTHER CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES. WILL PROBABLY ALLOW DEBATE OF THE OEAl TO CONTINUE IN ORDER TO GAUGE DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN REACTION. BjTJBataat

SOUTH AFRICA'S RESPONSE SUGGESTS A DESIRE TO CONVEY AH IMAGE OF MILITARY STRENGTH RATHER THAN VULNERABILITY ON THE EVE Of NEAT MONTH'S WHITE ELECTIONS. NEVERTHELESS. PRETORIA PROBABLY WILL

PERIODICALLY RAISE THE ISSUS iQ.SUPPORT ITS CONTENTION OF

"COMMUNIST ONSLAUGHT."

3. ZAMBIA: DROUGHT COMPOUNDS KAUNDA'S PROBLEMS

DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN ANC WESTERN ZAMBIA AND LABOR UNREST ARI AOOING TO PRESIDENTS DOMESTIC TROUBLES.

IHE DROUGHT AND LATE OELIVERlES OF FERTILIZER HAVE0 TO iO-PERCENT REDUCTION IN THE HARVEST 01 FOODA PQQR HARVEST OF OTHER GRAINS SUCH AS SORGHO. IN THE SOUTH AND

WEST NEAR THC ZIMBABWEAN BORDER HAVE LOST SOERCENT OF IHEIR CROP. EEK THE GOVERNMENT RAiSEG PRODUCER PRICES FOR CORN IH ORDER TO OFFSET THE RISING COSTS 01 FERTILIZER. KAUNOA MASINTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP COPE WITH THE EMERGENCY. -

Sm*nm^^m',

,DROUGHT PERSISTS UNTIL THE END OF THE HARVEST* LATE IN TNI YEAR WILL BE PROBABLY RESULTING EED TO INCREASE IMPORT?AVOID

Mnvrurcr.CWm "EAR TERN. AN ACTION THAT PRCVOKfO FOOD RIOTS LAST YEAR. LUSAKA PfiQBABL* WILL HAVE TO INr*FA<l

T mR- T0 Of'*ET PRODUCERUNOERMI NING ITS IM' -BACKED ECONOMIC RE THE ZAMBIANE MINISTER PROBABLY WILLNW,TMANK AND HI

)

)

b(3)

b(3)

)

b(3)

u i

G

c I

N

M E

o

t

C

u

T G

s

G

M

t

s s

A

G t

CT G

a i

N G

M E

S

s

A

G

3

tor; Z APR 8?

LEBANON-ISRAELI CLASHES IN SOUTHERN LEBANON IHTLNSIf*

INTENSE riCHTINC OVER THE WEEKEND BETWEENALESTINIAN FORCES AND ISRAELI SOLDIERS ANO THE ACKED ARMY OF SOUTH LEBANON UNDERSCORE THE RECENT INCREASE INCTIVITIES.HRISTIAN WAS KILLEDATYUSHA ROCKET HIT MARJAJOft ASLfRIUJOR PREDAWN HIZBALLAH ATTACK ON ASL-ISRAELI POSITIONS ON SATURDAY WAS SUCCESSFULLY REBUFFED. ACCOROlNG TO THE ISRAELI PRESS. SEVERAL FATAH FIGHTERS INfILTRATED ISRAEL YESTERDAY AND KILLED TWO ISRAELI SOLDIERS BEFORE THEY WERE KIUCO BY OTHER ISRAELI SOLDIERS. 'gkWL K3

C OWE NT: BOTH HIZBALLAH ANOPALESTINIANS ARE DETERMINED TO ESCALATE THEIR ATTACKS IN THE SOUTH. BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE ATTACKS WERE COORDINATED IN ADVANCE. ISRAEL HAS ALREADY BEGUN TOHELICOPTERSEFUGEE CAMP AT AR RASHIDI YAH YESTERDAY. ISRAEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RETALIATE HARSHLY AGAINST BOTH SHIA VILLAGES IN THE SOUTH AND PALESTINIAN CAMPS NEAR SIOON IN THE NEXT WEEKS. THE ATTEMPT TO INFILTRATE ISRAEL BY FATAH WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY DESICNED TO BOLSTER ARAFAT'S IMAGE DURING THE PALESTINE NATIONAL COUNCIL MEETING IN ALGERIA THIS WEEK.

S. LEBANON: DRUG DEALING BY CHRISTIAN HILITlA

THE LEBANESE FORCES MILITIA'5 RELIANCE ON DRUG TRAFFICKING TO FINANCE MILITARY ACTIVITIES UNDERSCORES MILITIA COMf.*NOfRACK OF INTEREST IN COMBATING OTHER ILLJCIT ACTI" CORRUPTION WITHIN HIS ORGANIZATION.

JAJA ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE RELYING ON ILLICIT

ARE

THE CHRISTIAN INCRE

KC

LIKELY TO REDUCE HIS PERSONAL CONTROL.

FUNDS TO BOLSTER HIS PRECARIOUS POSITION INSIDECHRISTIANENCLAVE. DRUG-OERIVED REVENUESRITICAL SOURCE OF INCOME [OR THE CHR STIAN LEBANESE MILITIAS AND OTHER FACTIONS ANO ARE LIKELY TO

'ASE THE GROUP'S AUTONOMY ANO FURTHER COMPLICATE- POLITICAL FILIATION. ORUG ACTIVITIES AMONG JAJAJSITOLLOWERS, HOWEVER.

C USSR-AEGHANISTAN: RAID INTO TAJIK SSR

ON SATURDAY TASS SAID AFGHAN INSURCENTS CROSSED THE BORDER RIVER AND ATTACKED SOVIET GUARDS ON THE NIGHT OfPRIL. KILLING TWO GUARDS BEFORE BEING REPULSED ANO SUEfERING HEAVY CASUALTIES. TASS ALSO SAIO THE USSR WILL TAKE EVERY NECESSARY MEASURE TO PROTECT

TS FRONTIERS. MENTIONING THE US. THE SOVIET NEWS AGENCY SAIO EXTERNAL FORCES ARE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBSTRUCT ING A

POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN BUT THAT THESE FORCESTO JAILTASS AOOED THAT KABUL CAN COUNT ON FIRM

THE OHLY PREVIOUS MOSCOW MEOIA ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF

:7

INSURGENT OPERATIONS AGAINSTRP.ITOR. STRESSED ONPRIL THAT NO INSURGENTS PENETRATEO THE USSR ROSS-RlVER ROCKET ATTACK THAT KILLED ONE. THE MORE AUTHORITATIVE TASS STATEMENT INDICATED RISING CONCERN OVER BORDER VULNERABILITY ANO POSSIBLE EFFECTS AMONG SOVIET TAJIKS. ONE JUSTIFICATION FOR SOVIET TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN HAS BEEN AN ALLEGED US INTENTION TO THREATEN THE USSR EROMVTHERE. PUBLICIZING SUCH ATTACKS MAY BE INTENDED TO PREPARE THE SOVIET PUBLICONTINUED MILITARY PRESENCE DESPITE EFFORTS TOOLITICAL SETTLEMENT.

7. SRI LANKA: MASSACRE CEASE-EIRE

THE MASSACRE OF MORE THANEOPLE-1NCLUDING SOME FRIDAY, ALLEGEDLY BY TAMIL GUERRILLAS. SRI LANKAN GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE ITS UNILATERAL CEASE-FIRESPARK'.ANDWI DE RIOTING. MpflMMBklMWflMMMt IHE GOVERNMENT LITTLE EffORT TO RESTRICT INFLAMMATORY PRESS COVERAGE OF COLOMBO BLAMED THE LIBERATION TIG'.RS Of TAMIL POWERFUL TAMIL INSURGENT GROUP--FOR THE KILLINGS.HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE AREA, AND COLOMBO ISSINHALESE RESIDENTS fOR PROTECTION..

JffJjMBWB TIGER SPOKESMEN HAVE DENIEDR THEMEANWHILE.ROSCRIBED RADICAL SINHALESE MARXIST GROUP THE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION FRONT-LAST WEEKARGE SUPPLY, OF WEAPONS FROM AN ARMY CAMP IN THE SOUTH.

. THE KILLING'S ARE THE WORST SINGLE INCIDENT SINCE MAY

ND PROBABLY WERE INTENDED TO SABOTAGE COLOMBO'S EFFORTS TO RESTART INCIAN-BACKEO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS. SUCH EVENTS HAVE CAUSED ISLANDWIDE RIOTING AND REPRISALS AGAINST TAMIL CIVILIANS IN THE PAST. ILITARY SUCCESS AGAINST THE INSURGENTS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD AGITATI ON FROM THE SINHALESE COMMUNITY HAY FORCE PRESIDENT JAYEWAROENE TO DELAY RESUMPTION OF PEACE TALKS ANO RETURN TO MILITARY OPERATIONS- THE ATT ACKERS--REPORTEDLY SINHALESE SPEAKERSMAY HAVE BEEN MEMBERS Of THE RADICAL MARXIST GROUP FROM THE SOUTH. WHO HAVE STRONGLY OPPOSED THE GOVERNMENT'S PEACE INITIATIVE AND HAVE USED TERRORISM TO SABOTAGE SUCH EFFORTS.

fl. IN BRIEF' MIDDLE EAST

MAY CONNECT TO DORTYOL EXPORT

DRUZE LEADER WALID JUNBLATT VISITING MOSCOW THIS WEEK . . . JUNBLATTTO REQUEST SOVIET MlLITARY_AID. PROTECTION !ROM'

SYRIAN ASSASSINATION PLOTS.

VaatiHtaMK IRAQ, TURKEY PLANNING THIRD OIL-EXPORT PIPELINE FROM NORTHERN OILFIELDS TO BATMAN. TURKEY . . ILL REINFORCE ECONOMIC TIES . . .INE MAY TRIPLE EXPORTS TRUCKED THROUGH UNSTABLE KURDISH AREAINE.

b(3)

0

u

M

.

G I

b(3)

b(3)

)

C

u -

G

0

! I'J

G

f' E

S

s

A

G

b(3)

)

b(3)

)

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA