NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 23 FEBRUARY 1987

Created: 2/23/1987

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Discontent Win Regime Grows

Crackdown on Militia* Threatened.

Fleectlon to BrodUan MoratoriumStslue ol (ktimuiiii!Tenure lor

Pakistan: Riot log Continues In North-Weel Frontier

In Brief

More Energy Cutseview ot First-Use Option

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Discontent wrth Regime Grows

Tha ifove/nmmnlnromtrmtnt loon Tnursda* am* frid my, but moraHeed of Government flwlrfiteered thi*Me oraipecl ofrence.,

In an unprecedented display ol opposition to the military's rule, uppeople took to the streets In Paramaribo on lourlast week to call tor Bouterses ouster. Most ot thestudents, but onlookers el so Joined In. denouncing shortagescooking oil. and other bask: foodatuffaJ

the demonstration on Friday was more subdued lhan earlier proleaU. some students were arrested and manylub-wielding policeman dispersed protesters "

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evidence, and military police reportedly entered two high schools In an spparent attempt to Intimidate students from participating In Ihe demoTutlrallons. The regime's plan torooovornmont counterdemonslration on Friday apparently failedH

ational address Friday night. Bouterseew plan for coping with Surname's growing economic criala. Bouterse said thai, instead of Imposing harsh austerity measures mat would have an immediate Impact, his government would Increase foreign exchangepromotingdecrease hard currencypart, by cutting the budget of Surname's embassies overseas by rjeJf. lie also promised thai basic foodstuffs would remain available!

though the demonstrations have shown Httle organ Oat Ion. more protest activity Is expected this weak as the regime celebrates Its seventh anniversary amidst food shortages and lhe military's Inability to defeat lhe Brunswljk rebellion. Even though Bouterse moved adroitly In not announcing heroh austerity measures, anticipated etrid gasoline rationing aa energy imports are reduced Is Bkefy to prompt more demonstrations."

The Increasingly aggressive tactics employed by the military polios have proved effective so far but could spur more violence in the coming days. In addition, the Increased number of policemen deployed to handle thn demonstrations Is likely to inhibitountorlnsurgency effort against the rebels

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Syrian Creeps faneedOre-art mocft of Mfoaf CerVarfnsecus -n'mshwri fhef,7 -Tl harwhlf MM anytighter, remaining on tho afreet*

ol Syrian military Inleaigenoe In wemed that lha troop* hava order* lo treat eneur* that mM prtaonera held by

Syrian military Intervention respondsormal request by several Muslim Cabinet ministers, but many Wast Beirul factions and the Lebanese Christian community are opposed to the deployment. President Gemayel. who was not con lulled about Ihe Intervention. pubOcfy denounced It Saturday asLO spokesman In Tunis yesterday expressed concern that the newly arrived troops would boliter Shia Amal efforts to destroy PalestiniannWaal Beirul mhigee carn<"tjHB|

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drat objective is to Intimidate Druxe leader WaHd Junblatt. whose forces gained the upper hand In lastighting Although Assad secured Junbfatt'e support for tha Intervention. Syrian troops admost certainly will encounter oppoettloni the dty and will have to resort lo force to prove their reeol.e]

The confrontation wai takeew dinvsnalon If the Syrians move Into theh-con Irolied southern suburbs because Damascus would then bo openlytho firstHUbaileh Innoonoe In West Bek-ut, an expansion that has become especially Irritating to President Assad.'

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Brai/Hea I'mrmonlw more for firm

tocurritical In

financial reaction to fh*

jA/pentlna'a Finance Miniate* -in travel lo

.Jrawuploiot etrateuy for debte

Peruvian PreaUdant Garde Iwim BreatUaa McMoruepandpoymoote. andtwv<af> Rapyfettc

a rescheduling

and thai perymerrta wai ba resumed aa aoonanM at cornotafed.lwan wnt negotiate wtth ttm creditors but to reach sn.

Tha acawty public reaction ao far from BrezM'a prfvata creditors Indicates thay ere hopaful thai negotletlone can Madow Bflraarnenl. fwsvertheleas, tha fh-eeldont of tha IBankir. largest prtvatarotaaartton srjafcnst tha bank*

I of unnatarai o> Jointdebtor, would further tot credrio. corrhdenoa. In addition, aban*ank loenaetraction of Irade credits to the'-^normal banking operatlonaj |^

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petrols and aecurtry oparationa

lulrto'a proooaala

Ahhough the Communists hava publicly rat

tor

ksaderaliip Is dabatlng whatog, taPursoe. Tho ineurgeot.several attacks In nacant weeks, but their activity haabacauaa localave apparently boon waitingfrom tho party leadership

| Manila has not taken advantage of thad nsassHa coumamsurgency eftorta. CMC acbonmmnaaty for the tneurgants. land reform, andhave not bean Implemented. The appointmentSoriano as Aquino'a National Security Advaaar andot the counierlnsurgency programlop forward,hea Utile experience with auch actlvttleer

military hi preoccupied with tla dirfarenoaa wtth lheIta pay. slowcuMerlrau-gencyIn vesical lone of human rights abuses.ecentmldflW-leve- officers -as helphj. but tensions betweenmem and tha military are Dkefy lo remain high until at notto redreee lhe mOiary's

T*mn for MougKey

Tee onerf-term eerrvhrefrfen Prime atfafsroe otoerflnalo Weegftea'a minorityleery,ee*fausfeJe efrarawfhrel.Uter Meet

iHaughey U inenough Independents to berime rm meter whenreconvenes onarch, Under the Irish Constitution, failure to rime minister would force an Immedlala elect ion

rogram to combat the hlghurkampioyment rateHaughey hie beet chenoe to wm short-term support.are divided on whether to Increase social apendlng.

tajoa. or empheocce more austere pcociee.arginal

m spending can probably win votes from iefrvrirvj (noopevvdents and tne Looo- Parr. BBBJB^

ksland'o budget deftcft and foreign cjeot wmh* iw.sfinnoaspork barrel strategy But Haughey may hop* he can inglrsser_

drop in unemployment andew eoection before

coneaqusnoaa of higher deficits ore feet

' any mlaatep could bring Haughey down, manyof hisI Party are probablyhe new Progressive Democratic Parr, of former flanna^

cabinet minister O'MeMey. O'Maliey ha* made It clear, however,J

his price for Supporting any Flanna Fall government la Haughey's

Tho Prime Minister aaoignaie's preoccupation with economic

probksma and political ourvtvel Is hkery to omit the attention he can

gfre to Northern Ireland Protestants bi the province were quick to

trumpet Ms eiacliorv-night avowal of support for eventual Idah unity.

but heositionush London for ccnooesions He real

Inst Utile progress on th* Anglo-Irish accord Is likely until

British election, and he know* that hi* domestic opponents are more

united on supporting the accord than they are on economic policy.

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PAKISTAN: Rwttng Continues in North-West Fron Her

assive truck bomb.

nd Injured moreparked two days of rtoilng and Ihai much of the vk>ler>ca wsa direct ad against the Afghan refugees* presence In Pakistan. VtgHarits groups burned vehicles and facilities, attackad Afghan refugees, threw rooka at Ihe US Conauiate, and exchanged gunfire wtth Insurgents.olher border ctttea echoed the sentiments ot Peshawar rioters by demanding that Afghan lafugses be moved from ma) Pakistani dllea and Ihot all refugees bo confined to camps^

[The bombing) was probably the work of the Afghan intelligence service. If so. It represents the largest attack In lhe Soviet-Afghan campaign to force Pakistan lo withdraw ha support lor the Afghsn raslatance byedge betweennd Afghsn refugees. The attack may nave been staged to Increase preeaufe on Islamabad prior lo the next round of negotiations on Afghanistan,ed forebruary In Geneva. New elements In the current unrest are the unprovoked attacks on Afghan refugees and gun bathes between locals and Afghsn Insurgents. Aft hough tensions appear lo be eecaJaling In border areas, the government etiMajority of the populace's support tor Its Afghan program.

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ROMANIA: Mora Energy Cuts

President Ceeusescu this month cdared household consumption ol nntural gaa and oiedflcHy lo ho reduced byercent and other users not directly Involved In production to absorbpercent cuts. The letter Include psrty and

land

ICeausescu appears concerned ihai poor performance by (energy sector Is hurting Industrial production and export earnings, but hla effort to aqueeze domestic consumpllon further will not yield much and was*ens his control. "

probably suffered as well. The public has endured reductions In energy rations the past several win tea and wUl boar the brunt of these measures; It Is nevertheless unlikely to protest openly.

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AY-NATO. IWitiw of First-Use Option

Norwegian Foreign Minuter FrydenlurvJ nun/ have upset some ASlee by Ma unofficial alatament early this month that,tep lowwdo<d< Nuciear-Weep one-Free Zona. Oaio may aak NATO to reexamine Ita nuclear flrat-ua* Option. Tha goverrvrvenl. howavar wti probably not follow througha formal request. NATO's present oat arrant poatur* la at Odde with the oonoeptuciear-hee rone because Allied contingency ofane Include nuclear owpicvmeots In member countries threatened wtth conventional sitae*)

|Frydenlun<ra remarks drew Immediate flro from Oefenae MinNter Holat.orme) proposal wouldough lime getting even Cabinet approval. Moreover, although lha Idee would appeal to krftwlng La Dent as. the non-Soclallat majority in parliament would probebfy prevent Oslo from making such an approach to NATO The suggestion that NATO may discuss the free rone could give Nordic skeptics an excuse to put Offwjh-level working group to study theove the Nordic foreign Ministers will diacuss again nasi i

aif sis

ITALY:

powerful but Increasingly bmlmmgumred Communlit Parly wilt mlmoal catmlnly bo left on thm tldmllnma wtimthmr thmhrm-pmrfy governing comtttlon dmcldma next month to Implement /la agreement lo trenater the prlme-mlnlstertml post oe to hold mm early eiecllon. The perty continues lo lace political Isolation end electoral atagnetlon deaptte lie efforts toore rnoderate and pro-Wma tarnhenly rami chance ofhmra of power would be In the unlikely event that the Modeller* and Chrlatlan Democrats come to mn Irreparable breech over policy or over possession of the prlme-mlnletry. In which case either party woe Id needCommunlst support totable mm/orlty government^

The pany no longer enjoys the Influence and popular support It had under Enrico Berilnguer In the lates. when It won one-third of the vole end participated Indirectly In Christian Democratic-ted governments, lis share of the vote flank belowercent In3 elncllon. and It has been shut cut of national decisionmaking by the governing coalition ever since. The party alsotunning setback5 when It lost control of Italy's major Ulles aitd WSts defeatedeferendum It hedaponsgred challenging the government's austerity pooctesj

The Communlata' New Course

prosaic successor. Alesssndro Nana, has tried to build on the moderate course Berllnguer set for the party In Ihe hope of Increasing Its appeal to tha el eel orate and to potenlial coalition partners. He hasreater measure of Internal debate and has moved further away from Ihe party's longstanding advocacy of radical social and economic change. Notts slso has tried to pavo the wayeftist alliance wtth lhe Socialists by toning down criticism of Prime Minister Craxl and has alternatively called for the party's Inclusion In^^iajlonBl coalition government basedommon

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In foreign affairs Nntta and his colleagues have tilted toward tho West by reaffirming the party's Independence from Moscow and its disapproval ot Soviet foreign adventurism. It has also cultivated links to Was! European social democratic parties, often at the expense of rotation? with other Eurocommunlsf parlies. Last November lhe parly leadershlo finally pushedong-discussed document on security policy Ihai formalized the party's decade-old stance ot grudgingly accepting Italian participation In NATO as long as tho Alliance sticks to strictly defensive object!veal'

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Natta'a strategyno sign, of bringing the partyohara ot powar. Neither ot thawo possible coaHtionSocialists and tha Chrtatlanshown any willingness to cooporala wtth lha Communist a. Socialist Prim* Mini-tar Craxl haa. fn tact, repeatedly questioned the sincerity of the Communists* ahtft tornooaraterder to woo moderate Communist wot*

Communists' prospects tor scoring significant electoral gainsthe near future also remain bleak. Opinion poila show the party fun not benefited from Its Incroaaed moderation and will face tough competition In tha next election from Craxi'e Socialists and from thebut acQv- environmental panies that are popular wtth younger

The party's prospects could also be hurt If Soviet leader Gorbachevsublicized domestic reforms and efforts to improve Moscow's repulatlon abroad create internal periy pressures on the leadership to move away from Its pro-Wnstem UIL Many party offtdals and activists prrnrlousfy critical ot the Soviets already appear to be impressed wtth So vie! developments. I

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