MIDDLE EAST ASIA BRIEF FOR 7 FEBRUARY 1987.

Created: 2/7/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SUBJECT: HI DOLE EAST AS IA

FROM:PAS. CONTENTS

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l..EGrPTi (LECTION. LIKELY.

TSFfAtL-LEBANON:-HEW" ATTACKS BY HIZBALLAH

I. EGYPT: ELECTION LIKELY

NEXT WEEK'S REFERENDUM CALLEO BY PRESIDENT MUBARAK TO DISSOLVE THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY IS MKELY TO HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE PASSING. If IT PASSES.EW ELECTION MUST BE HELD BY PRIL. ALTHOUGH OPPOSITION LEADERS HAVE PRAISEO THE MOVE BECAUSE IT COULD EXPAND THEIR REPRESENTATION. THEY ARE CALLINGORE OPEN SYSTEM BEFORE THEY PARTICIPATE.

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ITHE REFERENDUM IN PART IY BE AN EFFORT" TOOURT DECISION INVALIDATING THE ELECTION LAW UNDER WHICH THE CURRENT ASSEMBLY WAS ELECTEO. THE INITIATIVE GIVES OPPOSITION CROUPS GREATER LEVERAGE. AND MUBARU MAY

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iSRAEL-LEBANON: NEW ATTACKS BT HIZBALLAH

ON ISRAELI TROOPS AND THOSE OF TEL LEBANON. IN ISRAEL'S SECURITY ZONE MILITARY LEADERS IN

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OT:EB 67

TEL AVIV WHO ARE PRESSltVI FOR RETALIATORY STRIKES IH THE 6EKAA VALLEY. ACCORDING TO THE ISRAEL* PRESS. DOZENS OF PRO-IRANIAN. SHIA GUERRILLAS ATTACKED POSITIONS OF THE ARMY OF SOUTH LEBANON YESTERDAYILES ILOMETERS) NORTH OF THE ISRAELI BORDER, KILLING ONE LEBAHESE MILITIAMAN AND WOUNDING SIX OTHERS. THREE ISRAELI SOLOIERS WERE WOUNDED. AND EIGHT SHIA ATTACKERS WERE KILLED IN , iJbSf QLJENTF IGHTS . mJmXKWM

COMMENT: ISRAELI LEADERS MAY BE RELIEVED THAT THESE ATTACKS WERE LESS OAMAGING THAN THOSE IN DECEMBER. IN WHICH AT LEAST IS MILITIAMEN WERE KILLED. ISRAEL HAS BEEN ABLE TO PURSUE ANO KILL RETREATING HIZBALLAH ATTACKERS MORE EFFECTIVELY BECAUSE OFECENT

INCREASE IN ROVING PATROLS BY ITS ELITE INFANTRY AND PARATROOPADES, BUT IT HAS DONE NO LASTING DAMAGE TO HIZBALLAH'S ABILITY TO RENEW ATTACKS. TEL AVIV'S WILLINGNESS TO ACT ON THE MILITARY'S STRONG URGE TO RETALIATE AGAINST HIZBALLAH MAY BE AFFECTEO BY US NAVAL MANEUVERS IK THE EASTERN HEOITERANEAN. THE SEIZING OF FOUR PROFESSORS IN BEIRUT EARLIER THIS MONTH, AND CONCERN FOR TERRY WAITE'S SAFETY. THE MOST RECENT ATTACKS WILL NONETHELESS PUT ADDED PRESSURE ON ISRAELI POLITICAL LEADERS TO STRIKE AT HIZBALLAH BASES

IN THE NORTHERN BEKAA VALLEY--PARTICULARLY THE SHAVKH

S. IN

MIDDLE EAST

DRUZE OFFICIAL CLAIMS iERRY WAITE- HAS NOT BEEN

OR PUT ON TRIAL . . IZBALLAH'S SPIRITUAL LEADER

ACCUSATION IN PRESS YESTERDAY THAT WAITEUS MISSION COULD PROVIDE USTIFICATION FOR PROLONGED OtTENTI ON.

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Original document.

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