MIDDLE EAST ASIA BRIEF FOR 3 JANUARY 1987.

Created: 1/3/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

fP.On:PAS. CONTENTS

SOUTH AFRICA: PREPARINGATIONAL ELECTION

ZAIRE-US: MOBUTU'S EXPECTATIONS Of SUPPORT

it. IN BRIEF

1. SOUTH AFRICA: PREPARINGATIONAL ELECTION

OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE REACTEO POSITIVELY TOENERAL. ELECTION. TO EFERENDUMREFORM ISSUES. MILL Bl HELD EARLY THIS YEAR. THE FEDERAL PARTY. THE OFFICIAL OPPOSITION INIT WELCOMED THE OPPORTUNITY TO CHALLENGE THE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY ANNOUNCE0 THAT IN PREPARATION ELECTION IT WILLNITY CONFERENCE LATER THIS MONTHA MERGER WITH THE FAR-RIGHT HERSTiGTE NASlONALE PARTY LEADERS. HOWEVER. SAY THEY WANT ONLY ATHAT WOULD PREVENT THE TWO PARTIES FROMCOMPCTlNC AGAINST IN INDIVIOUAl ELECTORAL DISTRICTS.

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RULING NATIONAL PARTY WILL RETAIN CONTROL Of

PARLIAMENT IN THE (LECTIONS. HOWEVER. BOTHA CLEARLT WANTS TOGAINS. ANO HI Will PROBABLY OPTHORTTHAT WOULO GIVE THE NERST1PTf WO CONSERVATIVE PARTIES TO IRON OUT THEIR DlfIERENCESTO ORGANIZEORMAL MERGER Of THE TWO RICMTWINC PARTIES THEY PROBABLY WILL AGREE EMPORARY TRUCE ANO WILL SInGLI f in MOST ELECTORAL DISTRICT

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1. ZAIRE-US: MOOUTU'S EXPECTATIONS Of SUPPORT

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MOBUTU BELIEVES THAT OURlNG HIS VISIT ASHINGTON LAST MONTH HEROMISE 01 FULL US BACKING FOR RENEGOTIATING ZAIRE'S SUSPENDED AGREEMENTS WITH THE IMF AND WORLD BANK.

KINSHASA UNILATERALLY SUSPENDED PAYMENTS OVJE IN DECEMBER TO THE PARIS CLUB ANO COMMERCIAL BANKERS. WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE ALREADY SNORT. OELAYS IN LOAN OiSBURSEHENTS TO KINSHASA ARE CAUSINGORE RAPIO DEPRECIATION OF THE LOCAL CURRENCY.

U, IN BRIEF TERRORISM

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MOBUTU'S EXPECTATION OF US BACKING WILL ENCOURAGE KINSHASA TOARD LINE INITH THE IMF AND WORLD BANK.ALT IN THE NEGOTIATIONS. ORELAY. WOULO FURTHER DAMAGE ZAIRE'S FINANCES ANO POSSIBLY RENDER THE IMF AND WORLfl BANK PROGRAMS UHSALVAGEABLE. MOBUTU STILL DOUBTS HE IS GETTING ENOUGH IH RETURN FOR MIS SUPPORT OF US POLICICSt ANO. If HIS FOUR-YEAR REFORM EFFORT COLLAPSES. HE MAY BLAME THE US AND TAKE RETALIA TOR' ACTIONS. SjCH AS EXPELLING US OlPLOMATS.

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