IRAN: POSSIBLE USE OF NEW ANTISHIP MISSLE

Created: 3/24/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Special Analy.it

IfMew Antiship

I'Mn Brill wt.'o"bBr.mllf COrOtultj bt'c* ullng Its

new Silkwormntiship cruise missiles. Tehran'a doalro to avoid provoking superpower Intervention will probably anauro lhat the cam tiovt, aeloethro targeting lhat haa characterized lta previous attacks on shipping will bo applied to the Silkworm: Tho weapon nonetheless givesotent new Instrument to pressure the Fenian Quit states and Iraq. The prospect oi ait Increased superpower pretence In the Persian Quit might prompt Iron to demonstrate the missile's destructive capability soon^efo^sthe risk of provoking US or Soviet Intervention,

[Iran moraear ago purrjieeed

somai. QBCfitour launchers and10

baiter ies ruavs,WwwrVgsevenal SiBtworm laanchsftes. two ofOeshm island andreadyissile from Qeahm late last month.

Tehran may decide that firing tha mtssaeive target would yield Importantemonstration of the Shkworm'swould underscore the Khomeiniispleasure wrth the continued support for Iraq by tha Qurf Arab slates more effectiveiy than would attacks by helicopters or gun boats. Following such an attack. ur*certalnty in the world oil market about Iranlarijntentlons and the avaiiaMlry of ok would push up oa prtcesH

Iran may also want toilkworm beforeore superpower ships In the Persian Gutf. Reports ot US and Soviet otters to protect Xuwaltl shipping may prompt Tehran to attack an unprotected tanker before such arrartgementa increase thenadvertentlyessel belonging to either supivpowee.B

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Original document.

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