IRAN PERSIAN GULF - INCREASED THREAT TO SHIPPING

Created: 2/27/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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GULF:

ThrMl lo Shipping

Theow IranianaJlaseployed alone;Strati of Hormut ta Jfkefr ioInternational fan ol anhreat" lo oil exports from tha Pmralan Gull and to mi* concirni among Quit Arab*ran mill ua* thi*t* Ireg'a aupportor* *nd to lore*il prices.

Oil exports through the Strait are estimatedillion barrets per day; nearly an goes to the US. Japan, and Western Europe.hia amount, as merryould be diverted to Saudi Arabia's oH export terminals on the Rod Sea to compenselo 'or lost export! i'-rough 'tie (iuif JB

S Ik worm will significantly Increase Iran's ability to attack nnd sink ships In the Straitr muz. Tehran Is likely to brandish Us new threat before actuallyhip with rt to intimidate the Quit rates. Theuwaiti tanker-would be Wended to demonrale the missiles destructive capability end put more pressure on Iraq's aupportorajHIhouttrong Western or Soviet reaction!

A Silkworm would probably extensively damage oranker. Although Iran is unlikely to try lo close Ihe Strait ol Hormuz completely, many oH customers would probably avoid entering the Persian Gulf until Iran clarified lis intentions, particularly If Ihe oil companies leered that they would loae their oil Uncertainty in the oil market about Iranian Intentlona and about the availability of oil would rxobaory cause on prices to rise, si least temporarily. Oespif iNe jo export more oil through the Red Son|

D FOR REWASS

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