Near Easi and South Asia Reiiev*'
Iran-Iraq: Dimal ihe End of ihe Tu
hai encouraged aeveral diplonuiVcTniiiaiivea to neioitaie an endu ali>rcar-old war with Iran. Baibdad hai focuaed iu efforu on members ol* ihe UN Security Council and Iracj'i Middle Eastern ailie* and hai prciscd Ibemork forcomprehensive peace settlement Iraqi oftciett have recently visited France,apan.nd the Soviet Union to bolitcr supporteasc-nre and la actions aaaiut Iran.and Algeria beatinterest in meddling the -ar. but the likelihood ihat either -ill aucceed depends on Iran's -ttuigneaa lo drop ita preconditions for negotiations. Aa long as Tehran continues lo call for tbe ouster ofresident Saddam Husaynrecondition for peace talks, iijs unlikely that any negotiations will develop*"
The UN Security Council haa attemptedringanic* lo the negotiating Ublc sine* the beginning of thebut Iranian intransigence baa impedeel all iuN Secretary Generalde Cellar baa iried toeace aetilcmcni between Iran and Iraq ben with htile aucccaa InS be presented both sMlcaroposal that -cold reduce ihe scope and intensity cf theail notease-fire. Iran was willing to discuss ibe proposal because i( did not Impedearryround war. Iraq, on Ihe other hand, rejected the proposal because it did not calleaae-nre, withdrawal to International boundaries, or negotiations leadingomprehensive settlement of thcI
Iranoccupation ofnrompted the SecurHy Council toenewed appeal for an end so the -ar. Onbruary It unammoualr adoptedhat called on
both sides to observe an immediate cease-fire, to withdraw to internallonally recognized borders, and to immediately submit all aspects of the conflict to mediation or other meant of peaceful settlement. Iran critkiied the resolution because it failed to condemn Iraq ai the aggressor 'j |
Initial Iranian guns during iu recent offmsiv- near Al Basra seem to have heightened UN interest la ending the -ar. In January thcecurity Council permanent member* began to discuss adoptionesolution ordering an Immediate cease-lire. The members agreed that, to be effective, the Security Council would have to back up this demand with sanctioni if either Iran or Iraq rejected thecease-fiie order. Al Ihe threat lo Al Basra subsided, the move for strong UN action (tailed. To revive peace efforu Iraqi officials have visited several countries. Including1 France. Italy. Japan,nd the Soviet Union, to urge item totrong resolution to end the fighting and possiblx initiate an irmj embargo Iras
The Iraqis arcomprehecweithdrawal of forces monitored by international Observers, an eichange of prisoners, snd assurances of compliance by both aides As in ihe past. Baghdad ay* Ihat it will rejectseukmcai that resembles previous UN resolutions, which favored Inn by limiting the cease-fire to ihe Persian Gulf and calledtep-by-itep settlement rather than an overall end to the war. Iraq may believe ihat the UN initiativeood chance of passing because Security Council members are womec about Iranian advances near Al Basra Although we doubt that thc
or Ending the War
Iraq hatillingness to negotiate an end to the war since ihe early nates af ihe fighting Originally. Iraq sought abiolute guarantees lanterning sovereignty over the Shoit Al Arab and over land thai belonged to Iraa but Iran had seised. Baghdad baud in claims on the agreementsJ-I4 that put the frontier on the eastern bank of ihe Shott at oppoied to5 Algiers accord that
Axed It at the deepwaier thannel. In1 the Iraqi Foreign Minister said publicly that settlement
of Ike conflict should be based an ihe following
The Inadmissibility of using force In resolving disputes and the restoration of all rights laken by forte from their legillmatr owners.
Mutual respect for sovereignly and noninterference In Ihe Internal affairs of ot!>er countries.
freedom of navigation In the Gulf and the Strait of
By2 declining Iraqi military fortunes had led Baghdad lo seek arbitration of ihe dispute, and in4 ihe Iraqi Foreign Minister told the peas thai Iraq would accept International arbitration of all territorial questions, including ihe Shall Al Arab dispute, according to the principles of International lawf
essage addressed lo Ihe Iraqi people on5 In connecilontmporary kali to ihe bombing of Iranian lawns, Saddam Husayn listed the following conditions foe ending tht wan
A comprehensiven land, sen. end clr.
A pullback to Interr.eiional Szrdert.
A comprehensive exchange of prisoners of war.
Direct negotiations based On mutual respect of each side's Integrity and noninterference in tech other's initrnal affairs
A correlation of these basic points so thai ihe violation of one would beiolation afJB
Iran's primary demand for ending tht war has been tht ouster of Saddam Husayn and Ihe Bath government In Iraq. Iranian leaders have sometimes hinted that thty would be satisfied with ihe removal of Saddam Husayn. but Tehran's official position continues to call for iht rtmovol of the Ba'ihisi regime. The principal Iranian demands In ihe early stages were unconditional Iraqi withdrawal and International condemnation of Iraqi aggression. By1 Iran's demands were as follow*:
Iraqi withdrawal from Iranian territory.
Identification and condemnation of the aggressorompetent International tribunal.
" Payment of reparations by the onrnw.^ ij
Tehran eventually dropped the thirdn2 another was added: the return of refugees lo Iraq. Byhin Iraq had withdrawn from most ef tht territory ll occupied, tht principle of Iraqi withdrawal became less Important, and the mosl important conditions became ihe removal of the Ba 'thlst regime, reparations, and condemnation of the
APPROVED TOR RELEASE
upporl forroposals,n arms embargo,ritical test of US good will fcJlow.mg dadwuraof US arms sales to
. Iraqi Foreign Minlner Alia calf President Reagan'* aclive supportenewed arm* embargo against Iran The Iraqi* are pkased with ihe President'* recent itstemcni on Ihe war in which be held Tehran responsible for continuing thef and calledithdrawal io interna<ionaUy rccogniicd borders. Thcowever, may be overestimating the US ability to persuade other Security Council members toiupport an efTective arms embargoran.
TW Soriet Stance
The Sovieti have taken an active role in recent Security Council consultations on ihe war and have
war and reported that Soviet officials endorsed UN efiort* toease-fire. So-ict Fordgn Minitter Sbcvardnadie ha* noted the importance of the Iran-Iraq agreement not to attack civilian target*seeessaryease-fire and stressed that continuation of tbe warretest for outside intervention in "he Gulf.l-
Mwcow used the recent vim. of the Iranian and Iraqi Foreign MiP uteri to project an image of peacemaker ij the Gulf, to ensure that Soviet interest* in the region are protected, and toon revelation* of US.arm* Mlfi ioi^at^aWMklMn ihe Sovieti id provide the same acceai to both Foreign Miniiier* to demonstrate their willingneu to treat both countries equally. At the tame time. Moscow need the viilts to criildze Tehran's continued belligerency and to underscore Soviet (uppon Tor Iraqi effort* to find a
peaceful jclllement to the war. The Soviet* arc likely to continue to be active in UN deliberalwm. andaintain contact wilh both Baghdad and Tehran. B> doing this. Ihe Soviets can ensure their involvement in any developing UN negotiation*t:;ngthcn their credential*Arab worldhc rcgion.MHljT
Effort* by Other International Orgaaiaatlons The Arab League and the Islamic Conference Organiiation also have tried to mediate the Iran-Iraq war but have been unsuccessful primarily because Iran suspects lhat both are fronts for Iraqi and moderate Arabollowing an emergencyf the League's Committee of Seven in Baghdad In early February. Arab League Secretary General Chedli Klibi met in Turd* with the ambassador* of the five permanent Securtiy Council members to garner support for Iraqi and Arab effort* in the Unitedhe thrusl of Klibj't menage wa* that the League fully supported Iraq! effort* toN resolution condemning Iran aad callingomprehensive peacekMwttmtawkTWkWkmkWt^xht Arab League members hope thi* approach will force ihe United Slates and the USSR to aciively participate in UN efforts tociikmcnriBj
The Islamic Conference Organigationesolution on the war during its summit meeting in Kuwait in January. Tbe resolution called oo Iran to accept UN, a* Iraq had done, and to declare iuo end the war peacefully. Il thanked the Islamic Peace Committee for iu efforts to bringettlement but failed to instruct (he committee cither io continuework or io ce^M! ill wisience. The lummit meeting's final communique, however, called on the Islamic Conferenceecretary general to follow up on the resolutions adopted in Kuwait -by all DOJSibte means and in ncordancc wilh evolvingta nces
! as Islamic Conference chairmane nest three years, would do -hii ii could inh the Peace Commiliee and Islamic Conference Secretary Generalireet role fat Kuwait ii difficult. given Inn's perception ihat Kuwait is hrmlyalignedInq Kuwait
conucted Iran duting the lummii meeilng to ask for Tehran's cooperationcaled-down commiliee. Inn said it would cooperate onlyould approve
lummit meeting's finaland resolution concerning the -ar. Nevertheless, the tummit meeting periicipenis agreed ihat Kuwait. Pirzada. and the full Peace Commiliee should eonilnue itselfjRwti-iih lehrsn despite iu
Pinada recently returned from Moscow, -here he raei -rib Sonet officialsitcuu Sonet -hlaConference Organization relabora aad poawMiiic* for mediaiiBi an cadhe war. The Sonets toU Pireade ihat. oa Ibe basts of Iheirater Veliyati.otid making peaceIraq Ftmhermort. theber aa- btllc hope thai Ibeations could boaj about an endbe fighting and Ihau ii theirbe Islam* Conference had the ben chance of ending ibe war. given iu recent mandate lo Iryeace settlement
Algeria is one of tbe few Middle Eastern cou-tries Maintaining fdslions -lib Iran since ihe revolution, and ii has offerou to mediate lince ihe early days of Ibe war. Algeria's role in5 In.-lraq aircemenu makes il well qualifiedediate, but, despite numeiousof ihemboth sides. Aliens has been no more lucceairuf than other* ia bringin|ountrieshe negotiating labte.he Algerian* were Lattely Inactive because lhe> perceivecl that the Iranians were un-tHing to talk, and Algeria did not warn to risk damaging itsb Tebraa. An Algerian attempt to nnvc mediation in6 was raffed att^fc
inieresied in renewing iu effortsnd the conflict, but, given Iranian intraruigenee. ihe prospectssuccess are slim Iraqi Foreign Minister Ta'lq Aril visited Algeria in January to peeis ihe Algerians to ascertain current Iranian thinking on the -sr. An; csprested concern that, in tbe face of Iran's tecent military successes, support for Iraq among some of ibe Arab Gulf states might be wavering. The Iraqis also were concerned lhal Syria and Libya wereesolution for present*Honiheonference summit meeting thst would condemnithout critictTiog Irtn. AliiAlgerian President Bendjedid lo use his influence to bluni Syrian and Libyan efforts at the summit meeting.
Turkey's Role limited
Turkey repeatedly asscru Its neutrality In the Inn Iraq war while continually callinguick and and offering Iu servicesediator. Ankara ma.aiain* good relations with Iran and Iraq. Turkey'sleading trade partners in ihe Middle Fait. Economic
lies, coupledong Handing policy ofwith hiolianucvcrabilily
id unwillingness lo riik confrontation
Other Arab ilaics believe lhai Turkey can help't an end io (he war. and al January'* hlamic summit meeting inhey pressed Turkey toore active role. Iran, however, hai repeatedly reiiiied Ankara'! cfforti. and relation! recently have been itrainedurkiih aitacki on Iranian-lupptied Kurdish rebel* ia northern Iraq
Ankarailemma. It would like to *ee an early cad to the war. but see at Iraq'i cipenic The Turk* probably tilt toward Iraq becauK their economic iiakea in Iraq arc ii tier and because they are ncrvoui about the rcpcrcussioailear Iranian victory. Wishing io remain oa good lermi with Iran, however,
and to preserve iu perceived roleoderating force in thc ragion, Ankara probably will continue to
ofTer iu services.
Iraq probably will continue to presstrong UN raotuiioa calUuforapre be naiveghtini. but tbe likelihood ofeacet least in thc near future, Il illtn. Birring aa Iranian defeat or thef Khomeiai. it it unlikely that Tehran will lessen iu precondition! Tor negotUiions, particularly Iu callhange ef regime in Baghdad Tehran has linked the tuccesi of (be revolution to iu abilityopple the Ba'lhist retime.ending the war short of victory would call into question Iran's poUlicaleTedibilily and claim of religious lnvu*dbditr*H
Algeria. Turkey, and the Islamic Conference Organizauon will continue to eiploce the possibilities of bringing tbe two udes to the negojisiing uble. butefforu are likely to be blunted by Iranian intransigence. If Iraa'i posrtim changes. Algeria probablyetter chance of playing the role of mediator, given iu luocesaes in Ihe