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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIfiEKCE7
Moscow's Afghan Quagmire: No End tn Sight After Eight Tears*
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During the eight years of the Afghan war, the Soviets have repackaged their political and diplomatic Initiatives, restructured their eilltary force, and refined their approach to coanter1asurgancy--wlth little to show for their efforts. Moscow Is clearly probingay totable governaeat la Kabul and to bring Soviets troops home. Just as clearly,as aot decided te do so at the price of accepting lessarxist-dominated regime. "
In tha wake of an unsatisfactory conbat season and the conspicuous domestic failure of national reconciliation. Moscow has recently appeared tohiftarder line in Kabul that reaffirms the primacy ef the Karalst People's Democratic Party ef Afghanistan (PDPA). At the same time, intensified Soviet efforts to earavel tht Internetlemal coelltioe supporting the rtslstatct suggest that Moscow views this as the arena showing the most proalst at the aement. The Soviets aay even hope that, if they are patient, the coalition of forces ranged against than will unravel ot its own.
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' ombat schedule'at least as'demanding asrevious year, the Soviets have not achieved comparable results In ltl7. They spent much of their time rescuing Afghan government waits that not only could not felflll thair missions but were tfrlowsly threatened. The Soviets failed this summer Im ae attempt te overran an insurgent base camp at All Khal on the Pakistan border. The Insurgents' successful defense there masarked contrast to an offensive in tha springhen Afghanh extensive Soviet fire suaport--wtre able to take an Insurgent stronghold at lawar Milt.
esult, the Soviet's assessment of this year's combat probably has lad them to conclude that "Afghanliatlon" of the war Is Increasingly remote and that they may have to expend even greater effort next year Just to maintain the current military stalemate.
4. For their part, the Insurgents probably are satisfied with their performance this year:
Insurgent activity has become more widespread and
uccessful because of the Introduction of new weapons and tactics and an Improved supply situation. Successes with the Stinger have improved insurgent morale and confidence. There are Indications some areas, particularly In Hangarhar Province, ara being resettled and farmed as refugees return to areas under Insurgent control.
The Insurgents also have demonstrated the ability to plan and carry oet some large-scale operations, and cooperation among groups has improved. Careful planning and better Intelligence have permitted the commanders to attack lamer taroetsreater decree of success.
The Insurgents' ability to sustain combat for relatively long periods in several areas suggests their supply levels are adequate. Infusions of cash and new transportation assets have overcome last years' shortages andntermeasuras have lessened the interdiction threat.
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' Nonetheless, sose significant problems (feaal nV ', >l*
* Factional squabbling continues, and bas hindered military operations, particularly In the north.
The Insurgents have not been able toustained and effective urban warfare campaign In Kabul as they had hoped to do.
Weak Client In Kabul
5. Moscow's endorsement of the tough line adopted by General Secretary NaJIbullah st the POPA coaference In October and at the Bolshevik devolution celebretlonsovember probably reflects the Soviets' recognition that yet another' phase Is their efforts toommunist regis* In Kabul has faded. The national reconciliation Initiativeear ago, which the Soviets and the regime portrayedharp departure from the past, offered oppositionthe seven party alliancened participationoalition, government. Moscow apparently hoped to neutralise regime opponents and sow dissension within the retlstaace and between Pakistan and th* alliance, but subsequent elaboration of the proposal made It clear that national reconciliationirect--althoughiMous--descendant of earlier policies. Moscow's goat had shifted only aargtnally--froaurely Marxist regime toimited form of power-scaring In which the PDPA would retain the key levers of power.
6. tn addition to ratling to convert any significant segments of the resistance, national reconciliation dangerously incrtassd factional!sa within th* POPA. onsequence, even vaguely defined avenues of participation have been closed off. Mejibullah's new constitution places virtually absolute power in the handsh* pr*sldent--th* post he assumed at th* end of September. Whether th* Soviets directed his power playet, they hav* *ndorted it and have quoted his statements that the PDPA will retain control of the presidency and the armed forces So long at there Is any requirement for Soviet troops on Afghan soil. Soviet media have also repeated his declaration that the Afghan Army is too weak to stand alone, thus pushing 'he withdrawal of Soviet forces further into the future.
InternationalImage of Flexibility
7. During the first two years of the war, Moscow was on the diplomatic defensive, trying to remedy the damage the invasion had done to Its relations with China, the West, and th* nations of the Third World. Under the pressure of condemnation by the United nationseries of Third World organllatlons, Moscow
Dn nonirtterfereneer guarantees
noved to Inprov* Its iMfle rtluctintly t 1 Kj :uarticipation In thf UN-sponsored proximity talks In Geneva. Koscow stalled Its way through several years of negotiations, using the Geneve forun to test Pakistani resolve while exploiting the propaganda value of appearing to negotiate seriously. This tack continuedith Kabul's Insistence that direct talks precede further discussion of the relationship between
troop withdrawal and agreements andeturn of the refugees.
8< Inoscow began to put out signalsariety of Inform channels of serious Interest ineal on Afghanistan, Public gestures followed. Including Gorbachev's Party Congress speech early6 in which he referred to Afghanistanbleedinghe shan withdrawal of tlx Sotlet reglaentt In tht fall that year, and aovement In the Geneva sessions on the Issue of settingwithdrawal tlMtabla. These signals and gestures appear to have seen primarily propaganda tools designed to put Islamabad and Washington on the defensive In the hope of securing "reciprocal" concessions.
Intensified PI pionatlc Activity. Early this year, the Soviet! expanded their efforts to signal their desire to get out jf Afghanistan and to persuade Islamabad to deal, but there was io meaningful change In the substance of Moscow's policy. ual tract campaign, Soviet and Afghan military pressure on Pakistan Increased sharply, shifting fro* cross-border raids to terrorist bombings that raised the spectre of Increased unrest Inside Pakistan, while Moscownational reconciliation as the saslsampaign to display Soviet "reasonableness1 and to tecure International recognition of the Afghan regime. After Jangling the prospect of an Interim coalition government under former Afghan kinghah, however, the Soviets avoided discussions of the compositionoalition with Islamabad. And after raising expectationsignificant move on the timetable for Soviet troop withdrawal would be irade at the Geneva lessloneptember, Koscow failed to deliver. The Soviets srobebly determined that the regime vas toe weak to sustain eves in agreement Im principlehort withdrawal timeframe and that more attention bad to be paid to POM coherence. To givepresston that movement In negotiations nonetheless :ont1nues, the Soviets have more recently tried to shift the Jtploeatlc focus to the compositionuture governmentabul, soliciting Ideasoalition and angling to have Pakistan and the UN tate the Initiative In setting up talks between the resistance and the regime, f
10. The free rein recently given to NaJIbullah to consolidate his power, however, risks undermining Hoscow
lAterMtloneil promotion of tho regime's fltiHif Mffincerity. Together with the letdown at Geneva In September.ctivities in Kabul may have Influenced the outcoiM of the UK General Assembly's vote on Pakistan's resolution on Afghanistan In mid-November. Intense Soviet lobbying to reduce support for the resolution or to water It down with amendments was defeated, and tht original resolution passedlightly greater margin than last year*.
In the wake of tha un setback, the Soviets have floated hintsfionth withdrawal timeframe might be offered at next *US-Sovietove that they probably hope will regain the public relations Initiative and put pressure on the other side to offer concessions. Concern over Kabul's stabilityonce again fcaan tharom following through on these
owever-
Hhlther Sovlat PollcyT
11. Hoscow Is clearly probingay totable government In Kabul and bring home Soviet troops, but just as clearly bas not decided to do so at the price of accepting lessOPA-domlnsted regime. The Soviets are teeplng their options open by continuing to build up their military and political Infrastructure in Afghanistan. The costs of thisIncreasing popular dissatisfaction within the USSft, continuing Internationalnd the greater llfflculty of maintaining the military stalemete--do not appear to have forced them to revise their strategy fundamentally. Despite the bleak prospects forlient In Kabul that can stand on Its own, they probably hope that* If they are patient, the coalition of forces ranged aoainst the* will jnravel, making revision unnecessary.
12. Adjustments on the Ground. The Soviets could reasonably Judge that the continuing decline of the Afghan Army and Improvements In Insurgent weapons, tactics, and morale will require Soviet troops to carry an even greater burden next year. Routine operations, such as road clearing and convoy protection, may be more difficult. Offensive operations may call for more resources than have been allocatedhe past, nonetheless, wo believe that the Soviets have shown that they are prepared to support the tied of expanded commitment on the ground that might be necessary next year. They appear no more willing to let the Kabul regime be defeated In combat than they are to legotlate Its demise, and they probably believe that they can rontinute to exploit some Insurgent weaknesses!
* The Soviets have no reason to believe that the Insurgents canuccessful defensive operationubstantial offensive threat. The bulk
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major combat continues to be al tines, and place's of Sov1 et .choost ng, and the Soviets probably judge that the Insurgents in most regions are less well prepared and have less plentiful supplies than at All Khel.
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Tne Soviets are continuing to iaprove their infrastructure, conduct routine combat operations, and implement urban securitysigns of continued Soviet comnitment. They have withdrawn from two small Isolated garrisons and nay plan consolldatibn of other units that are inactive or difficult to resupply,
been persuaded that without extensive augmentation of the'lrombattep wt think they are not now likely towill not be able to eliminate the Insurgency or reduce Ithreat with which the Afghan government can cope so long as outside support continues. Consequently, we believe the Soviets will focus increasingly on efforts to disrupt the International coalition supporting the resistance. Vigorous coabat operations inside Afghanistan serve this strategy In several ways. They maintain tha threat of breaking the resistance on the ground; they counter any perception within the resistance or among Its supporters that the Soviets have lost the initiative In Afghanistan; and they support at least the bare vinlmum of any viable negotiatingn--the continued existence of the Kabul regime and Its Armed forces. As as result, the pace of combat activity Inside Afghanistan Is likely to remain stable or even Increase next year. Military pressure against Islamabad in the form of terrorist attacks inside Pakistan probably will continue as well, although the Soviets may noteturn to the level of cross-border boablto seen earlier this year In order or avoid negative
me soviet* may take other step* to offset the negative developments Identified during this year's combat. These could Include modest Increases in troops--partleularly Spet$nai--and equipment, allocating more resources for individual offensives, planningew longer campaigns than ve nave seen this year, or reinforcing areas that have been particularly hard-pressed, such
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is Oandaher, The Soviets may lookramatic target among the Insurgent depots lo the border region sad novo against It in greater force. Poscow might choose several of these options both for their concreteImpact and their potential effect an the morale of the resistance and tha political will of Its supporters.
15. Continued Reg,ma Consolidation and negotiation* Moscownlikely to alter Us current political tactici significantly during the next few months es it waits to assess several expected o* possible developments:
A 'grand council" convened by Kabul before the end of the yeir toew
Impact ofoves to purge party dissidents,
" isit to Islamabad by First Deputy Foreign Minister Yorontaov,
The US-Soviet summit.
A possible US-Pakistani showdown over the nuclear proliferation controversy.
for Vorontsev to go discuss such plans.
16. During this period, the Soviets will probably continue to suggest an Interest In discussing an Afghan coalition, but they are unlikely to engageetailed discussion themselves or to agreeormat for the Afghan parties to negotiate It, For this reason. It Is possible that they will continue to postponeate
17, Once current trends have played thenselves out more fully. It may become clearer to the Soviets how well the regime can withstand the Inevitable strains that any serious negotiations would bring and how strong the resistance and Its supporters are likely to remain. EvenaJIbullah's recent measures produce an apparently uore docile party, thay will not put the lid on resistance to his policy or end rank-and-file apprehension thatreconciliation" is the preludeoviet sell-out. Unless the situation deteriorates markedly, however, Moscow Is unlikely to replace Rajlbulleh in the near future. Heotential bargaining chip In negotiations with Pakistan and the resistance, and the Soviets probably do not view any of the possible successors as significant Improvements,
18. Although greater unity In Kabul would enable then to proceed with more confidence, the Soviets are unlikely to give up
the dlploBlt.clnltletlvttly ( as it 1 central to their effortsH th* various forces aligned against thee on Afghanistan. Be'ore the andhe Soviets vlll probably:
Have the Afghansmor.ih withdrawal timetable at Geneva ar propose It themselves during high-level talks with Pakistan or the United States. Th* Soviets will continue to Insist that Implenentatlon of an/ timetable Is contingent on the end of 'outside Interference" and agreement on Interim arrangenentsoalition government In Kabul, They are unlikely to commit to specific dates or mechanics for the withdrawal.
* Agree* to some sort of forum under UM auspices for
discussionoalition. Hoscow alightuch as an International conference--thmt wauld give the Afghan regime greater standing than tha proposals so farby the Ult negotiator and the Pakistanis.
Resume "national reconcl Hat loa" offers to the resistance. Increasing the number of posts open to Insvrgeats and exlles.
# Develop new propaganda gambits, possibly Including another token withdrawal. f
19. rest With Past Policy?. There have been hintsthe longer teTm'Hostdw nay be "considering entering Intoof solutions that do not provide for the dominancePDPA, UN negotiator Cordovez's plan for setting up talks ongovernment, which he claims has the Soviets' go-ahead,Kabul's representatives to attend la their PDPA rathergovernment capacities. Hoscow may even be preparingdomestically and Internationally for sue* andomestic media have recently given promlnmnce tothe presoclallst stage of Afghanistan's development andfor compromises. [
20, ecision to accept less In Afghanistan, however, wouldajor risk for Gorbachev, who has already ipent considerable political capital to push through domestic and economic reforms In the face of opposition from conservatives In the party and, presumably, the military. His political vulnerability was underlined by the recent demotion of his ally, Hoscow party chief Yel'tsln. Gorbachev's opponents would cite the "loss" of Afghanistanlew to Soviet prestigehreat to Sovfet security, and might atteept to use the issue toetreat
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