CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE

Created: 9/17/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE7

This weekly Situation Report is prepared by the

- office of Africanin

American Analysis. Trim paper was coordinated by the Directorate of operations. Coosoents and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Middle America-Caribbean Division, ALA,

DERV FR MULTIPLE

Dewocratlgatlon

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE?

The Central American Vice Presidents made little headway in tbeir meeting in Tegucigalpa oneptember to discuss creationegional parliament, according to press reports. They agreed toentber body with headquarters in Guatemala City but must neet again to discuss procedural rules. |'

Two of the three Nicaraguan priests who had been exiled returned to Managua oneptember. |j

The Sandinistasuarantee that the independent newspaper La Prensa will not attack regime policies before they allow it to reopen, [

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Guatemalan guerrillasoaasunigueeptember offering to talk to the government but refusing to lay down their anas. President Cereao, Baying that discussions could take place under the auspices of the Reconciliation Commission, rejected any

A Sandinista Directorate member said oneptember that the regime wouldnilateral cease-fire and was appealing to rebel field cormianders to accept the government's cease-fire and amnesty offers. I

The Nicaraguan Goverraent is organising local committees to encourage the insurgents to accept amnesty, I

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caraguan President Ortega announced oneptemberJailed forwould be pardoned.

The Nlcaraquan insurgent assembly announced oneptember it hadive-raember negotiation team toease-fire with the Sandinistas. I

The Nicaraguan insurgents are considering

Sandinista prisoners of war to Costa Hi can President Arias,

The guerrillas hopevm generate internationxr pressure on the regimeinsurgent prisoners.

osta Rican President Arias, after meeting with the

Salvadoran guerrillas oneptember for tne second timewo weeks, publicly announced that he had made progxess in pronotlng insurgent dialogue with the Salvadoran Government.

I Arias calleduuarte to say tnat tne guerrillas had declaredtheir acceptance of the peacefor talks. Duarte, however, did not viewstatement as sufficiently explicit and announced onthat the deadline for guerrilla acceptancetalks had expired.

Aid to InBurctentB

Honduran President Axoona

r* [agrees with the interpretation that ms government woui nor be obligated to dismantle anti-Sandinista camps in Honduras if Nicaragua refuses to negotiate with the Insurgents. Foreign Minister Lopez, however, said he believes it would be difficult to adhere to this position.

There are indications of increased resupply activity byrebels along the southeastern coast across from military believes that Nicaragua and the FMLNa major resupply effort priorossibleI

National Reccnclliatlon

he first meeting of Nicaragua'september focused on proceduralagreed that

decisions win be made by consensus and announcedmembers willoice but no vote insessions, which are scheduled for twicef"

Nlcaraguan President Ortega said oneptember that the government wouldialogue with regimeIncluding insurgents who acceptearly October. Be also announced repealaw allowing the government to confiscate property held by exiles.

Ei Salvador named former President Kagana as head of its National Reconciliation Caroralssion and installed the Church representativeecretary oneptember. I

Zamora, thatne largest-ot-twa exile political parties alliedSalvadoran guerrillas, I

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intends to return to El Salvador. The move suggests dissension within guerrllls ranks on how to deal with the peace accord.

Verification

International Verificationof the Foreign Hinisters of the Central American and contadora

Lets and the UM and OAS Secretarieshold itingseptember in Managua.

The Foreign Ministers of Costa Rica. El Salvador,Nicaragua informally discussed peace issues onon the marginsultural affairs ceremony

refused to attend because of Nicaragua's World Courtplana to participate in all formal meetings on

The five Central American Foreign Ministers will meet ln Managua onndeptember. They are likely to discuss Salvadoran and Costa Rican proposals to implement the peaceintroduced at the technical meetingeptember. They probably will also discuss verification issues in preparation for the Managua meeting of the International Verification Ccmmisaion. I

Because the Central American democracies do notnited strategy as they enter this week's meeting of the International Verification Coromisslon, Nicaragua and the Contadora countries may seise the initiative. Salvadoran

a two-step process,

focusing on verification of democratleation before discussing how to verify compliance with security coninitments. Honduras is likely to endorse this approach because it is particularly sensitive to any attempts to verify that tbe antl-Sandinista insurgents have vacated Honduran territoryovember, when the democratization and cease-fire provisions of the accord take effect. Costa Rica and Guatemala, on the other hand, appear intent on organizing work committees for all verification tasks,

guerrilla groups as the premier verification issue.

win proprjseuDcarmutcee do creactnCentral American country consisting of the Ambassadors from Verification Commission member countries. We believe Nicaragua and the Contadora countries will focus on prohibiting aid to

None of the democracies, despite the declared intention of some of them to pursue this goal, appears to have given thought on how to promote use of the OAS and minimize the UN role in

verification procedures. The Contadora countries probably will be receptive to using tbe Inter-Anerlcan Ccsuission on Human Rights to help verify political progress, but some members have alreadyreference for involving the UN or West European states for security verification. Costs Rica has proposed that the Verification Commission decide which countriei mustational Reconciliation Commission, an idea that could undermine Tegucigalpa's opposition to formingody on the grounds that there is no insurgency in Honduras. I

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE

DEMOCRATIZATION

JCOMPLIANCE TO DATE I.

(NICARAGUA has allowed (opposition rallies, but (prohibits marches |without prior approvsl; jCore Four already in substantial compliance.

(ACTIONS STILL REQUIRED

NICARAGUA must repeal stste of emergency, establish press freedom, and permit freedom for political partiesovember, Central Americana must prepare draft treatyegional Parliamentanuary.

CEASS-riRE/ AMNESTY

SALVADOR and GUATEMALA will talk with rebels if they accept peace accord; NICARAGUA will talk with US. but not with insurgents.

Governments must issue amnesty decrees and carry out all necessary actions to achieve cease-fire permitted by their constitutionsovember.

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AID TO INSURGENTS

Americans must call for halt of aid to regional Insurgents, and prevent use of their territory by insurgentsovember.

ARMS CONTROL

Americans snd (Contadora Group to jcontlnuo negotiating on |security leeues. (including armsverification, and (disarming rebel groups.

NATIONAL RECONCILIATION

INTERNATIONAL VERIFICATION

formed National Reconciliation Commission,ugust; ELeptemberj and GUATEMALA,eptember.

International Verification Commission formed.ugust.

(Governments must (initiate dialogue with (all unarmedroups.

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jCommission must meet to jdetermine compliance byecember; Central [Americans must provide (ell swans necessary for Commission's work.

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