Yugoslavia's Kosovolight on Pan-UalkanismJi
ol iheost pleating nationality conflict) cornea from within multiethnic Yugoslavia, where in the tuulhein province of Kosovo leniiom are rising between tin ateand Megtenegrina and ibe majority peeasktioo of Albaaiaas. These tensiora have been auravaicd recently by trowing protests against discrimination by the minority Slavs and by aticmpU by Ihe Republic of! Serbia to exploit lbc protests for political gains. rictions are likely to continue orbe coming months, railing the chances for politicalthnic Albanian backlaih, and conunanal violence, for the Balkan, ifciiore volatile Yugoslavia, tease Yagoslav Albanian rcSariooj,orsenedhuhursue pan-hallar co.-ipe-atior^fc^B
ThePoliticalcridlnR source of tension is the political struggle between Ihe Republic of Serbia, one ofiix highly autonomoui republics in Yugoslavia, and lbc largely ethnic Albanian leadership of Kosovo province. One goal of Serbian ofheiah is to gain increased control overa autcetomoau province of Serb-.a. and the other sack province, Vojvodiat Theyounger andTttve kadcrthip of Serbia beticvet thai increasing Serbia'i control will
i its power base and voice in (he federation.
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The KcuiTd msin goal of Serbian ofliciala is to protect the Serb and Montenegrin rnioorily in Kosovo from perceived persecution hy the large and growing ethnic Albanian majority. Many Kosovo Serbs believe they are being deliberately pushed out of ihe provincethey claimistoricalethnic Albanian* They charge thai the Albanian karat* them, deuro) their properly, and docriminate against theaa in emplo> nen J| Jkj
Moti ethnic Albanian) in Kosora, bolh leader* and the public, piobsbly desire an eveniual tcpataiKvi from Serbia and ihe elevation of Kosovo to full
republic status within Yugoslavia. Bul, fearing Serb tecrtminations, for the time being they hope just to maintain the staiusouo. While Kosovo official* seek to avoid appearing IO tolerate or promote Albanian nationalism, ihey subtly resist Serbian demands and probably discreetly lobby other regions to try to prevent Serbian encroachments on their authority.
Republics generally are wary oremands oo Kosovo and the threat of Serb nationalism. But they are also concerned about increased lemmas in the* repeat of the Itiare wQLng to grant Serbia hanilcd iacxeascd de facto control over Ihe pecwince. The latest siga of federal ssppon for Serbia cameational party plenum -last June, which granted Serbia broader powers of the province to protect ethnic Slav
oversight over t
Security Problem
The securityotl immediately threatened by Kosovo Serbs and Montenegrins who. aalcd byBelgradeave held largely peaceful protest gathering! frequently, oo short notice, andipe variety of legations in Kosovo and Serbia The aim of the gatherings is So pabhety pressure Kosovo olhoah. as well at national cchctah in Belgrade, to help protect their righu. Al one recent gathering in Belgrade,0 Serbs rcporiedly turned outuneral to ilrowiympaihyerb soldier slain bybann 'mW mw
Another poteniial security threat come* from organized ethnic Albanian nationalisthich plan and occasionally carry out violent terrorist-like actions. The Yugoslav press rcportt periodically on gun running activities from Western Europe by Albanian nationalist groups as well at iheua-orcrinaall arms caches by security
Unlike iheir tolerance of ethnic Sorb demonstrators, Kosovo official* have responded to Albanian nationalist gatherings and olber activities witharrests and other rcprc-wton. The rvjitiiy- of political prisoners in Yugoslavia are ethnic Albanians, according to most Western sources.lbanians reportedly have been imprisoned on charges oT national ism since) riois. wilh an additionalsuffering other punishment,
Role of Albania
Yugoslav officials generally believe that Albania aids Albanian nationalist* in Kosovo andthc only European country nol io sign tbe Helsinki Final Act, which recognizes the frontiers ofcovets ethnic Albanian Yugoslav lands: In our vie**:
probably servesodel of national self-determination for many Yugoslav Albanians.
may abo inflame ethnic Albanians with its strong public sirpport for Kosovo Albanian rights and, demands for greater autonomy. Tirane does not have any imminent hopes or plans of uniting Albanian territories in Yugoslavia with Albania.
Outlook
Kosovo almost certainly will remain one of the Balkans'volatile nationality disputes for at the uesl several years, undermining Washington'* desire for Yugoslav stability. More Serb demonstration* are likely as are concessions granted lo Serbs that could fuel ethnic Albanian resentment andotentially violent Albanian backlash.gYMB
The Kosovo problem also will dampen prospects for Balkan stability and cooperation. Yugoslav relations withamong the mem strainedew chill should major violenceess stable Yugoslavia troubled by bilateral border disputes will be hard-pressed to pursue pan-Balkan cooperation, such as by building on Be!grade's_ recent pecpcoaloreign minister* meetine..
may also engage in other low-level activities, although we have no solid evidence that Tirane is instigating Albanian separatism in Kosovo by providing arms, funds, or any uaining.
Original document.
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