YUGOSLAVIA: THREATS OF ETHNIC VIOLENCE GROWING

Created: 10/14/1987

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

YUGOSLAVIA: . Threat* ol Ethnic Violence Growing

Tensions between tbe Serb minority and ethnic Albanian majority In Yugoslavia's Kosovoseemo turnperhapsairly broadthe next six monfhSJ

Kosovo Serbs havo demonstrated repeatedly against alleged discrimlnallon by the largely Albanian provincial leadership and are now openly advocating violenceally early this month, speakers calledeturn to the official repression of Albanians that occurred innd lor Serbs to take up arms. Some Serb officials have prescribed pu-ging and executing Albanian officials and colonizing Ihe province wiiii Serbs whigO.OGu ethnic Albanians to

neigh boring Albania.

The Serbian republic loadorship. which in tho past has constrained popular nationalism, is openly divided as dilferent factions manipulate Serb nationalism lo winenior party official was dismissed recently Biter accuwitions of being sott on ihe Albanians. Moderate ethnic Albanian leaders, who had serveduffer between Serbia and Kosovo's population, have lost all credibility with both sloes.

leaders have said pubPdy that government troops in Kosovo are being harassed, although by which side is unclear. One general said recently ihai the Vmy fears being drawn into "another Northern Ireland

small spark could provoke either side lo violence. The national political leadership is divided and has no good Ideas lorompromise between Serb demands and Albanian population growth that is overwhelming the Serbs In Kosovo. Serbian ^ leaders, by themselves, are unlikely lo come to terms. .

Provincial police are alao divided by ethnic tensions and may be reluctant to act, particularly in the wake of firings last springonfrontation with Serb demonstrators. Poor handling by local police could dramatically worsen unrest. Should violence erupt beyond the village level, national leaders would send the Army, but even mightew days to several weeks to contain the unrest

Any violence, although unlikely to damage the economy, probably would stiffen Belgrade's resistance to Western creditor demands for austerity that might cause social unrestrackdown on unrest might expose Belgrade to Western charges of human rights violations!