DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCEiO.ust ISB7 Yugoslavia: Ethnic Tensions Still High in Kosovo
between ethnicand Montenegrins--ano Aiunninris In Serbia's Kosovo Province have heightened In recent months and ihev probably vrm continue at current levels orver the next hstr year. The Republic of Serbia Is tha instigator of these tensions and is attempting to uie the ethnic strainsrotoxteassert, control over theomlnei ad province. Serbia received support frorrititherreulons for this eHortational Communist Party plenum fast
Public protests against discrimination by Kosovo's Slavic mhiomy are Ukely to continue In the coming months, raising Ihe chances tor oolltical miscalculations, ethnic Albanian backlash, and communal violence. Security forces, and In the last resort the military, almost certainly can keep such unrest in check. Nonetheless, the btoetJ US Interests In Yugoslav unity, stability, and development will remain threatened as lestering problems in the province Inflameamper the already cUtlfcult national policymaking process
Political Conflict over Kosovo
Serbia's Aims andha Republic of Serbia has been the main Instigator ol growing political tensions over Kosovo. Serbian officials oro pushing tor Increased control over Kosovo and Serbia'i other autonomous province ol Vo|vodlna. The effort began in earnestounger, more assertive and nationalist-oriented group of leaders sensitive to the conerns o' Serbs In the autonomous provinces was elected to the Serbian leadership. These newregionally-minded than the Vugostav-mlnfed older partythaterbia's control over the provinces wi" strengthene and its vc-uc Jr. the fsderetlon on other issues j'liradc'i authority In Yugoslavia's dntenUa-ioozes' system 'Serbian leaders locently proposed revisions to the Serbian mm> Td Serbian Judicial control ovoi the autonomous provinces that go far -those being consideredarallel Yugoslav debate cn the nations) con-si.tutron.
The second main political goal of Serbian officials is to protect the Serb and Montenegrin minority In Kosovo from perceived persecution by the large and growing ethnic Albanian majority Kosovo's Slavic groups believe Albanians harass them, destroy tholr property, end discriminate ogsinst them In employment, leading them to emigraie from the province to elsewhere in the country. Many sources indicate that the continuanceerb presence in Kosovo is an extremely emotional issue for Serbs, and historical events in Kosovo are deeply ingrained in the Serb natmnsl consciousness Serbian leaders, end the officially inspired Serbian press, are quick to condemn even tho minor and unproven incidents of ethnic Albanian hostility toward Kosovo Serbs
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Ethnic Albanian Aims and Motives We bolleve most ethnic Albanians In Kosovo, both leader; and the public, desire an eventual separstion trom Serbia and the elevation ot Kosovo to full republic status within Yugoslavia But. fearing Serb recriminations, for the time being they hnpe Just to maintain the status quo Since the last major riots inthnic Albanian officials have tried lo avoid actions thnt would leave themselves open to charges by Serb nationalists and politicians ol assisting or tolerafng Albanian nationalism in the pest several months, they agem have been placed on the defensive by such charges against several prominent ethnic Albanian Kosovo leaders. Kosovo officials are also wary of Serbia's Ire because they are also dependent on Serbian backing within the federation foi acquiring continued high levels ot financial support from tna richer northern renvoi ci ^| *p
The Kosovo leadership Is resisting Serbian demands for increased control over the province indirectly by remaining stent on the issue and leaving the fight against increased Serbian control to Vohrodma At Die same time however, significant circumstantial evidence suggests that Kosovo officials may be raising the Issue In private with leadera in other regions. Ihe Kosovar* probably sie raising the specteresurgent -gruaterSerbie- that would dominate ell regions, as Serbia did pnoi toar fl _H
Kosovo officials also are subtlety resisting pressure from both the federation and Serbie to change their domestic pouces Ahite the Kosovo authorllieservice to protecting the rights of ethnic Serbs and Montenepjins and hating their Out flux, sh practice they take lew actions to accommodate Serbian suggestions Kosovo officials.
however, did agree to give preferentialemployment andtne comparatively small number ot returning Serbs and Montenegrins, but only when this waa demanded by the national party Central Committees June plenum conclusions.
Tha National Scene. Other republics generally are wary ofemandsbut thev are also concerned about Increased tensions In the province--tearingofts--and are wining to gram Serbia limited Increased deover the province The regions probably hope mat Serbia will suppressboth ethnic Serb and Albanian agitation The latest lion o* federal supportram. atnations) party planum laatfor greater discipline In
Ihe Kosovo party, increased incentives to S'evs to return to Ihe province, and famHv planning programs (aimed ar tha ethnic Albanians) The plenum ilso gave Serbia unusually broad powers of oversight over the implementation of these conclusions Ihe decision was the first ihe internally-divided Ceniral Committee had been able to makean Important lopic since lis election Inuggesting the seriousness wiih which national leaders view Kosovo Shortly atier the June plenum, tho Serbian nany held lis own plenum on Kosovo which,erbian program of implomeniation of the planum conclusions JtU Mw
Security Problems
Serb Protests. The security scene is most immediately Ihreatened Oy Kosovo Serbi and Montenegrins wno. aided by natlonatlat-ortented Belgrade intellectuals, have developed the organized protestine art. Smce earty lest veer. Serbs and Monienegnns have halo largely peaceful protest gauienngs frequently, on short notice, andide variety of locations in Kosovo and Serbia, suggesting that they have established an effective Informal network of contacts. The aim of Iht gatherings, wtucn often involve up to several thousand Serbs and Montenegrins, la to publicly pressure Kosovo officials as well as national officials In Belgrade, to help protect their rights Such prolans probably are giving riseew cadre of popular Kosovo Serb leaders, although few Identifiable figures have yet lo emerge One of them. Koala Bulatovlc,allying point6 when0 followers demonstrated for his release after he was detained by Kosovo police At the latest mass gathering--ol about 5DQ0 onhe village of Kosovo Poiie- -part.cipanis demanded speedier implementation of tha June olenum's conclusions I V
So ter, Serbian officials havo largely tolerated these Kosovo Serb and Montenegrin protest gatherings in Serota proper, as have Ihe defensive ethnic AiOemen authorities in Kosovo
o While Serbian officials publicly warned Kosovo demonstrators noi io come to Belgrade during ihe June Central Committee plenum, they look little adverse action whan several thousand Kosovo Serbs and Montenegrins--joined by some Serbs from Belgrade--gathered across from the meeting hall
o Sartxan pouiiclana and press demanded and got punishment ofigh ethnic Albanian policefor provoking an April ctesh in Kosovo with Sera demonstrators
Albanian Organization end Repression anomer potential security threat comes from organized ethnic Albanian nationalist groups, wh.ch plan and ocs.as*onatiy carry out violent terrorist-Uke actions The Yugoslav press reports period'CaMy on gunrunnlng activities from Western Europe by Albanian nationalist groups lake the pro-Tirane
"Moralst-lenlnists o's won as the uncovering of smalt arms caches by security ponce These ere. however, relatively smell operations, according to press descriptions and we believe such groups arebe able to plan and carry out broader armed actions in the foreseeable future.apl^BBe
Unlike their tolerance of ethnic Serb demonstrators. Kosovo officials have responded to Albanian nationalist gatherings and otho' activities with massive arrests and other repression
o The meioritv ol political prisonerslbanians, according to man Western sources.
o Reports on the number of ethnicans <mprisoned on charges ol nationalism since the mat riots vary greatly, ranging0
o An00 have suffered otherncluding fines end official warnings, according to thc Yugoslav press
Yugoslav press sources indicate that most of these ethnic Albanians have been arrested lor nothing more lhan making nationalist public statements: ethnic Albanians thus are more likely to be tried for such -verbal crimes' then any other ethnic group in the country.urther note,eachers have been removed their Jorva In Kosovo,eve been expelled from the Kosovo League of Communists lor alleged nationalist activity, according to the Yugoslav press The June Central Committee also called for the removal of nationalist-oriented teachers from Kosovo schools..
Bole of Albania. Yugoslav officials generally believe that Albania aids Albanian nationalists in Kosovo, and that as the only European country not to sign the Helsinki Final Act which recognizes the frontiers of Europe. It covets ethnic Albanian Yugoslav lands. For example, last September, ethnic Albanian Kosovo psrty chief Azem Vlasl publicly charged that propaganda from Albania was Instigating ethnic Albanian "irredentism' in Kosovo In our view.
o Albania probably servesodel of national self-determination for many Yugoslav Albanians
ay also Inflame ethnic Albanians with Its strong public support for Kosovo Albanian demands for autonomy
ay also engage in other low level activities, atthough we have no solid
evldonce thet tlrene is instigatlncjAlbPnian separatism in Kosovo by providing arms, funds, or any training M
Outlook
Kosovo almost certainly will remain one of Yugoslavia's most pressing and divis-ve problems tor many years. On the political side. Serbian officials will continue to try to oicplon these troubles to push for constitutional reforms aimed at strengthening na control over Kosovo They will also promote federal pressuro on Kosovo's leadership to ensure ethnic Serb rights The June plenum gave Serbia important becking on both counts The Current debate Over changing the Serbian and national constitutions probably will continue over theears Overly aggressive moves by Serbia in the
debete to strengthen iis legul control over it* autonomous provinces, howevar. probably writ be resisted Byotfior regions my*ll late car* to specifically delineate any naw prerogatives grantar) to Serbia f
On tho security aide, ethnic tensions tn Kosovo almost certainly will continue, and an uneasy calm Is the bast that national officials can hope tor In tha foreseeable future. Serb nationalists surely will continue to attempt to undermine public contidence in the ethnic Albanian leadership In Kosovo and play up relatively minor incidents to call attention to their plight. More Serb demonstrations, and concessions granted to them, will fuel ethnk^AJbanlen resentment, possiblyotentially violent Albanian backlash. M W
US interests intable, united Yugoslavia will remain at least somewhat threatened bv the political and security problems stemming fromew round ot ethnic disorders could constrain and euen temporarily hah the ad hoc process of liberalization taking piece ulsewhere in the country Even withoutlareup. Kosovo win continue to strainrel at Ionsjmong many ethnic groups, andational policymaking moreemmtammr
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FACT SHEET ON KOSOVO
Note- AH information citedfrom published Yugoslav sources. except where specifically noted.
historicalof land Bc-ih Sorosanians believe they ere the nistortcal "owners" of Kosovo, end that the other group Is en intruder. Most Westernelieve thet the ethnic Albanians were present in Kosovo before Serbs and other Slavic groups; these hisionens trace Albanien heritage back to the ancient Mlyrisns. Slav groups migrated to the area beginning in the Hth Century Slavs generally settled the lowlands, while Albanians were predominant in the higher elevations, fnter-ethnlc conflict began in earnest when population pressures fo'ced the Albanians to begin migrating to the then Slav-settled lowlands inh century, according to US historians By the (Vn century. Serbs were predominate In the province, but since then population decreases from wars end high ethnic Albanian population growth rates have erased this Serb
predominance.
Serb Views of Kosovo: Control over Kosovo Is an emotional Issue toho view Kosovo as the cradle of their culture, and trace their control over the area back toh century. Tne battle of Kosovohere the Serb army was destroyed defending the province against Invadinga strong memory in Serbian collective consciousness Nowadays. Serbs believe they are deliberately being pushed Out ol the province by ethnic Albanians Kosovo Serbs publicly charge that they are constantly harassed by ethnic Albanians, who thoy claim blind their cattle, buy up Serb land, and rape young girls Moreover. Serbs suspect Albanians ol wanting togreaterprosent-day Albania with Kosovo and ethnically Albanian parts on Macedonia and Montenegro Serbs reject even ethnic Albenten demands mat Kosovo be separated from Seil;and elevated to republicthat the area Is traditionally Serb, thai the ethnic Albanian-dominated Kosovo Government already represents Albanian Interests, and that Albanians already have their own ethnic homeland--the neighboring country ot Albania
Albanian Views: Albanians, on the other hand, believe they are discriminated against by Serbs Ethnic Albanians argue correctly that they are thetoethnic group in the country, yet do not have their own republic as do the less numerous Montenegrins. Macedonians, and Slovenes they point to the high unemployment and poverty in Kosovo--the poorest part ofevidence that Serbia cares tittle for Kosovo Kosovo is rich In mineral resources and much developmental aid has gone to the miningsome ethnic Albanians to charge that Serbia eaplous Kosovoolony providing raw materials. Publlclred arrests of Albanian nationalists in Kosovo reinforce the view of ethnic Albanians thet their national aspirations are being suppressed
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Crttacnship end Representation: Many ethnic Albanians charge that Ihey are ^adequately represented in Yugoslavia, since they do not have their own republic. Citizens ot Kosovo are. however, constituentshe Socialist Autonomoua Province ol Kosovo, tha Republic ot Serbia, and Yugnslnr'a. Altanians holdt th* Provincial Uv*l. and are represented withm both government and pa-ty bodies and have some Influence at thg Republic and National levels For example. Sinenn ethnic Albanian from Kosovo, is formal President ol the collective Yugoslav Presidency, the leadership ot which rotates annually among tha regions.
Birthrate: Serbs charge thai Albanians are attempting to overwhelm thorn demogrephicelly in the province. Albanians, however, have strong cultural proclivities towards large families. At present almost one-haif an ethnic Albanians live in Yugoslavia. The rate of population nrowth In Kosovo Is. much larger than the national averagend the highest in Europe. Serbs and other Yugoslavs advocate greater family planning programs for Kosovo to keep down the Albanian birthrate
Per Capita OSP: Koiovo is tha poorest and least developed part of Yugoslavs he per capita gross social product in Kosovo wasS.hird of the national average
Employment: Many Albanians point to high unemployment as evidence that they are oppressed The unemployment rale In Kosovo Is. the highest In Yugoslevie and well above me national average. Kosovo has about% of the total number ol Yugoslav unemployed as of last year, although th*1 population was% of Ihe Yugoslavf the working age population In Kosovo is employed, as compared with% lor Yugoslaviaholeheof unemployment grew by
Unemployment problems wit! be aggravated b, Kosovo's population structure, according to Yugoslav sociologists Of those Currentlyre under the agere classified as 'highlyf the population Iss underanyf Pristine University are unemployed 'or an extended period after graduation
Expulsions trom the Provincial Party Organisation:l--when ethnic Albanians rioted through!eople were expenea from the league of Comtnumsts of Kosovo (the local party) ere ethnic Albanians Ethnic Albanians accounted tor' expulsions, which la higherhare of Kosovo provincial party rankst tha Kosovo pany ara ethnic Albanians while they comprisef tha province'sovovars ar* also generahyft. the nationet League of Communists oteing% ol total party membaishlp compared to% of tho country's population.
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Kosovo Albanian tirgantr ationa. Kosovo security officials publicly say that Albanian "Irredentists" ara increasingly attempting to organize themselves politically. Kosovo Internal Affairs Secretary Rahman Morina last year publicly stated thatosovo police badcounterrevolutionary organLratIons' In Kosovo, andresumably smsiln- volutlonnryumber inctvdvd theenutlsts ot Kosovo' an ethnic Albanian irredeniist organization that is attempting toass movement that eventually would detach Kosovo from Yugoslavia and loin it to Albania, according to otflelel charges. In addition, the Yugoslav press5 attempt by Iheniniit* ot Kosovo" to merge wtth another Irredentist group toew 'Communist Party of Kosovo." the Yugoslav press charged thai these groups had direct links to tho Albanian Intelligence service. The Yugoslavcharges Ihai these groups also engage in arms smuggling into Yugoslavia, ana that they engage in violence to accomplish Iheir goals, including at least one shootout with
local police
Political Prisoners Published numbers of political prisoners in Kosovo varyerbian official stated that0 people were sentenced in Kosovo for political crimes,0 people given warnings Kosovo internal affairs officials have stated publicly that10 individuals were0 fined by courts,0 issued warnings. The Yugoslav press indicates that the majority of these received only unspecified light sentences,efty minority of those sentenced reportedly received longer prison terms. Most US sources indicate thai Ihe majority of those senierKtfl are ethnic Albanians
Nationally,ugoslavs were charged with political crimes, according to security officials. These included 1S4..6) No explanation for wide discrepancies in Albanians sentenced has been forthcoming.
Emigration of Se'bs and Montenegrins' Serbs and the ethnically similar Montenegrin! charge that eihnic Albanian* are attempting lo force them to emigrate trom the province and create an ethnically pure Albanian Kosovo. Serbian nationalist-oriented intellectuals charge thaierbs and Montenegrins have been forced from the province kn the pastearst census snowederbs and Montenegrins lived in Kosovo. They representedf the population 2ccording to one Yugoslav study,6 Serbs and Montenegrins% Ol Kosovo's Serb and Montenegrin population) emigrated trom ihe province to other part* of th* country. Ouring this same period,erbs and Montenegrin* returned to tho province Specific annual emigration figures often vary widely The following are soma of those died in ihe Yugoslav press for the past tew yeers
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Demogrjpfnc Breakdown: In1 Yugoslav census, iheof Kosovo Province waa as Alban.ans
ont one nr in a
Federal Fffort fo Respond to Seib Complaints: Tha national party Central Committeelenum on Kosovo which produced the latest federal plan ol action on Kosovo, according to Ihe Yugoslav press According to the published
conclusions, the Central Committee advocated
0 Increased discipline within the Kosovo parly apparatus, and possible prosecutions ol some Kosovo Albanian officials who allegedly promole nationalist tensions
0 eform ol education, and removing nationalist-oriented leechers and
textbooks from schooli.
o Halting the emigration of Serbs and Montenegrins and increasing
Incentives for Slavs to return to the province
o New legislation lo ensure the security of Ihe property o* Serbs and Montenegrins to protect Ihem against alleged 'trusts' which buy up Serb lands
o rogram of population control to reduce Ihe high ethnic
Albanian birthrate
o ilingual language policy, such as in schools
Developmental Aid From Other Republics: Albanians In Kosovo charge that they are deliberately kept underdeveloped The Federal Developmental Aid Fund was set upf. stated purpose Is to redress regionel economic Inequalities by providing grants and extremely low coat loan* to underdeveloped pans of the country. Kosovo receives priority In tha distribution of these funds Thla federal fund accounts torf total investment In the province.f Kosovo's population Is engaged In agriculture, contrastingational average (excluding Kosovo).osovo Province is scheduled to receiveillion4 million dollars) from theol th*lump of5 in dinar farms,et loss whan accounting for inflation. Other less developed regions also receive developmental funds. Bosnia receives. and
Land Deals: SerbianBelgrademade strong public statements against Albanians' buying up Serb lands, according io ihe Yugoslav press These Serbs publicly allege that 'trusts' of Albanians offer large sums of money to Serbs to sell their land In an effort to encourage Serbfrom the province Accordingublished study by Ihe Kosovo Internal Affairs ministry, thereroperty deals18 in which Serbs or Montenegrins sold their land to ethnic Albanians. The Kosovo Internal Affairs ministryt these cases It maintained thai in oniyases, th* ongin of the money used by ethnic Albanians to buy Ihe property was auspicious. The report concluded that 'neither the irredentist movement, no'
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hostile; emigre H'Oups. nor somcDody olse abroad sis supplying funds lo purchase property from Serbs end Montenegrins *
Rapes; Kosovo Serbs publicly charge that ethnic Albanians trequanily rape Serb women to promote insecurity among SorCi enc Montenegrins and encourage them to leave the province Kosovo inlernai security officials found, hownver. that fromo6 thereapesttempted rapes In the province. In onlyases ot rape, andf attempted rape, the perpetrators were Albanians and the victims Serbs or Montenegrins.apes andape attempts ware by Albanians against Albanians One recent case of attemptedby small demonstrations of Serbs and Montenegrins throughout thetoo* place rn broad daylight directly In Iront o* ihe Provincial Infernal Affairs building.
Original document.
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