Created: 5/29/1999

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Intelligence Weekly



Progress on Caspian Gam Pipeline, bul New

The signingas pearchase agreeaneni between Turkmen President Niyazov met Toifaah Energy Minister Aklasiajor step in securing access to Ihe Turkish market, but tbe tram-Caspian gas prreiine (TCP) stiD faces itiff cwnrxtiuon from Russia's Blue Stream projectew Azerbaijani initiaii ve. The TCP through Azerbaijan and Georgia offersay to divert gas exports around Iran, which oiberwise could offer Ashgabat an aitracti ve route to Turkish and other European markets.

Turkish demand is projected to rise from aboutillion cubic meters this year to more thanemut the market is oversubscribed.

Tbe TCP is expected to supplyem per year to Turkey andem per year to Europe over the longer term.

He implied lhat Turkmenistan would be allowed to provide only supplemental gas volumes to Turkey. | |

Meanwhile, financing for Gazprom'sthe Black Sea to Turkey is movingtechnical challenges. Officialsand Botas say financing for theproject could be completed nextconstruction ofthe subsca segmentautumn, according to pceii

Tbe Iranian Fallback I

If tbe TCP loses momentum. Ashgabat would be forced to reexamine routes throughas pipeline that initially willoem per year between Iran and Turkey wdl be finished this year, accordingndustry press reports.

oanerman bank to pay its arrears to the US Export-Importecessary step before project financing ofthe TCP can proceed.

Competition From Azerbaijan and Russia

If Bakuurchase contract wilh Ankara, gas exports from Azerbaijan will underrnioe the feasibility of the TCP. Amid Industry press reports of asignuicanigaiflnd In Azerbaijan, state oil company foreign investment chief Alcskerov this

month would not

agree to transport Turkmen gas if it meant shucing-in Azerbaijani gas.

Alcskerov said BP Amoco'i well on the Shah Deniz prospect had resultedvery large" cfiscovery that could produceo IS bem per year some time

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