KOSOVO

Created: 9/29/1998

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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C odewords:

for the Record

MEMBER BRIEFING PLACE: f

DATE: S TIME:

CANCELLED

SUBJECT: KOSOVO

ATTENDEES:

ASSOCIATION

DO/OCA Dl/BALKAN TF REP

Executive

ROLE

SUPPORT BRIEFER

of this briefing was lo rxovide Rep. Wilson an update on the current .situation in Kosovo. Included in isessmenl of UCK and VJ strengths and weaknesises and poccntul outcomes Co the conflict. Rep. Wilson appeared well informed on the situation in Kosovo asked questions retarding reported atrocities, violations lo the recent cease fire, and reactions by our NATO allies io lbc US call for force in Kosovo should the Serb vrolarions to ihe cease-fire continue.

IS UPPORTDJG-TEXT] Summary Tat.

request, Rep. Wilsoninutes with the DDCI. Following this session. Rep. Wilson

wasrrunute update on the situation in Kosovo.byun-down on theof

Serb forces in the area and their operations. Serb forces are currently operating north of the Cicavica MountainsMitrovica.are new troops in the Urosevac region suggesting action

the n

(here soon. There has also boon activity reported in the past day or so in Suva Rcka.

JUCK command

At this point, Milosevic thinks he's smashed the UCK. but he's wrong.

structure is in tact, waiting lor VJ lo withdraw and hem on attacking supplyenitive actions have galvanizedpopulation. While the summer .soldiers arethere are 5-

8 Ihousand UCK fightcis in Ihe hills. UCK morale remains strong, some supplies still getting through, but they remain short of ammo. There is evidence lhat the UCK is reinfiltrating some of the areas they lost earlier and this rcinfiltraiion continues.

keep the UCK on the run. the Serbs must conduct continuouso destroy (he UCK. the Serbs have into the hills, for which they lack sufficient trained manpower. (Most units in Kosovo are half strength. | he Serbs arc experiencing difficulty on mobilizing more troops.)

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n the future.

the DIelative lull for the imrnediaie futurelowdown with

* inter weather. The UCK will Ik low as long as VJ battle groups remain out along major roach. Cross border firing between the UCK and VJ will continue, perhaps intensify. At this time, there is no indication the VJ plans anything beyond sweep operations where the UCK rears up. The VJ leadership priihnbly hopes by sealing borders the UCK will wither.

UCK's challenge is to improve militarily, which they're addressing via reorganization, strengthening command

structure, and getting better armv Ms. Wilson(old to expect sporadic, low-level guerrilla attacks by the UCK.

the UCK successfully resupplies itself by next spring, combat between the Serbs and the Kosovo rebels will reconvene ai ihat time.

Office of Congressional Affairs

98)

IChrono

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