DRAFT ON ROGUE STATE ACTIVITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Created: 4/16/1998

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

LIBYA, NORTH KOREA, CUBA, ANOOPT EN INITIALLY PLACE FEW CONDITIONS ON THF.IR AID, ART. GENERALLY VIEWED AS DONORS, MILITARY SUFPLIERS, AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS THROUGHOUT AFRICA DESPITE THE POOS PROSPECTS THEY WILL REPLACE WESTERN AID.

ROGUE STATES DIFFER WIDELY IN THEIR AGENDAS AND APPROACHESAFRICA BUT APPEAR WILLING TO CAPITALIZE ON THE NEEDSOF AFRICAN LEADERS AND POPULACES. LIBYA ANC| MOST ACTIVE, ESPECIALLY IN ATTEMPTING TO BROADEN DIPLOMATICTIES. LIBYA'S

ACTIVITIES ARE CONCENTRATED IN WESTERN AFRICA.

AFRICANS CONTINUING TO COOPERATE WITH ROGUE STATES (CJ

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libya. libya has increased its efforts to broaden its ties to sub-saharan africa over the past two years to reduce os eliminate un sanctions imposed on libya in2 in the aftermath of THE pannd. bombings and to end its diplomatic isolation. ermanent representative to the united nations abuzed dorda has also aggressively pursued contacts with african countries since HE 3egan his tenure tn early

', libyan leader oadhafi won support fron the organization of african unityroposal to try the pan am ics suspects eutral venue other than the "jktted states or the united kingdom.

ov: tc libya when

south african president mandela visited libya inv and publicly called for lifting "jk sanctions.

ther longstanding, but secondary, objectives in the region are to promote its regional leadership and tc check french and us influence while bolstering its own. the formation of the sahelian organization indicates regional deference to tripoli's role. libya has also successfully expanded diplomatic ties to several african

tripoli's attempts to improve and expand ties to african countries may be, im part, tc help libya's external intelligence agency monitor libyan dissident activity in sub-saharan countries.

FFORTS TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE HTM, RE HAMPERED BY LINGERTKG DISTRUST AMONG AFRICAN LEADERS REGARDIKGCCTVES. HIS FAILURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON PAST FLEDGES OF FINANCIAL OP MILITARY SUPPORT HAS COST HTM GOOD WILL AND REINFORCES PERCEPTION; AMONG SKEPTICALll ARAN LEADERS THAT HE IS UNTRUSTWORTHY.

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S'JB-SAHARAN AFRICAN LEADERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE COMPLICATED CAME OF MAINTAINING WESTERN SUFPORT WHILE SUSTAINING FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH ROGUE STATES TC BOLSTER THEIR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. MOST AFRICAN LEADERS ARE WELL-AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE AGENDAS OF ROGUE COUNTRIES AND WTLT. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THEIR ACTIVITIES AND ATTEMPT TO CURTAIL THOSE THAT THEY FIND OBJECTIONABLE. LIBYA WILL CONTINUE TC BE VIEWED AS THE BULLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD AHD IRAN AS THE TERRORIST AND ISLAMIC THREAT.

WILL CONTINUE ITS CAMPAIGN TO GARNER SUPPORT TO LIFT UN SANCTIONS AND WILL TAKE ACTIVE MEASURES TO ENSURE INFLUENCE IN COUNTRIES IN ITS NEIGHBORHOOD TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN POWERS, ESPECIALLY FRANCE.

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Original document.

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