EUROPE FACING PROTRACTED KOSOVAR MIGRATIO PROBLEM

Created: 5/21/1999

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The overall FDIA eiemplions ler in is decument are IDIIll and IDII3I.

Facing Protracted KosovarMigration Problem

Office of Transnational Issues DCI Interagency Balkan Task Force

9

bMD Tbit report was prepared by analysts in tbe^

IblO) Tnuisnfliioiul Issues. Commer-is and queries arc welcome und mav

to the Chief

DBV JVOSt Uiktpte MHWIN

APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE:1

Europe Facing Protracted Kosovar Migration Problem

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Although man of me refiiteei art In Ikerrai of Albania, Macedonia, and Montenegro, migration. Including literal floor, of KuiWdbaniant19 ta othtr parti ofUtrmnny andfighting Inttnrifltd.

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IBtgalikely lo inneate at diifdatedKaurro Albanian! nigra, atminf ritab-lBhed Albanian communities throughout Europe

inked to Fighting

The record fllghi of Kosovo Albanians has filled frontline states to capacity and has creased new presure on oeber oountrici especially those with sizable Kosovo Albanianike Germany and SwlurrUnd

cararr

Kosovo Alhaniaru corning to Albania directly from the provide* or through Montenegro have deluged host families and camps along Albania's northern borders. The kit crowded southern areas of Albania are receiving refugees from the norm and from Macedonia.

In Macedooii. inflow! from Kosovo have greatly exceeded outflows since late March. even thoogh local host-family accommodation! are laturated and filled beyond capacity, according to relief groups.

Asylum Requests Increase at fighting Picks Up Hmmmtrofantmn rrqmcai (mmnmnd)

Tbe Macedonianlo ethnic tension rrsulTjDg from the influx of Kotovo Albanians in eady Apnlefugees out of the country, doing to vriiboui intemxiional or ncei-govenroental oignnizabon assistance. Under pressure from Skopje, international organizations tiihxeowndyumanitarian evacuation program and, to date, have relocated0 refugees lo coootrtea ixuside the region. fJSSS^

Unenihusiastk European Response

Although European countries fear refugee inflows on the massive scale caused by tbe Bosnian war. they nevertheless havewith some non-Europeanrelieve pressure on Macedonia try acceptingefugees. Apart from Germany. Turkey, and the US.states have agreed to accept no moreCC0

fulfilled iu burial cornrnitraent0 in mid-April and indicated In early May that it was ready to take0 in two tranches, although the second tranche would be accepted only when ether EU counerie* havefairccording u> prats reporting.

looking to other nates to share the refugee barden- has pledged to0 refugees but has onlyia airlifts so far and, as compared with western Europe, is dislikedetonation by refugees, despite good camp conditions, atsssssj

Information at ofayused to petpait Ihii report I

Countries Offering To Receive Refugees Through the HuinanltariaD Evacuation Program (HEP)

US

ltd;anals Auilrii

Croatia CieehRepubbc

Australia

Nethzriands

. i

Portugal United Kintdsin^ Slovenia

H

Wand New ZcjJiDi Pound

Chilerazil IcelandMai* Moldova Estonia Andorra France3 lmdd Uruguayd

I2.SCO

0 refugee*.wtUtfiigm. but the twernmeirl not yiake a* officialK Ixu pledged to take

Unfilled refugee quotas are small ic coenpafuoa with4 "J'-iAlbanians wtoo are subject to Sob expulsion from Kosovo or who are overburdening froraUane areas. Most fiiaopran stales continue lo stress the importance of keeping refugees in the Balkans to enable their quick returnosovo and are reluctant to increase pledga* oofore other stales out of feu of attracting more refugee*.

The uasrnidootlh; sponsored Hun*amianan Trae<siBup0 irtujfees from Macedonia to Albania it also helping io relieve pressure on Macedonia while rcfugeea dose to Kosovo but has been undeiBubscnbcd. |

Ethnic Albanians Not

the Only One* Displaced

people displaced by lhe Kosovowe estimate onlynot ethnic Albanians from Kosovo:

all of0 people from Kosovo now In other parts of Serbia am Serbs, including refugees from Bosnia and Croatia who Bed Kosovo last year because of the deteriorating securitythere.

- More0 Sabs and Moruenegnns hat fkd the FRY for the Republika Srpska in Bosnia, mostly alter NATO airstrikes began at the end of March.

Over half of0 displaced people in Montenegro at the end of March were Montenegrins, Serbs, and small numbers of Muslim Slavs and Roma gypsies who left Kosovo over the last year.

0 refugees now in the Federation entity in Bosnia ere Muslims who have mainly fled the Sandiak regioD of die FRY since the onset of NATO aimtnkes. mmmJ

A significant Incentive for refugees to relocate outside the region is the low standard of livingper capita income in Albania Ls00 inIs even lower tan in Kosovo and offers families few prospects for rebuilding their lives.

Miii ii Migration on the Rise

Many Kosovoin overcrowded camps and facing ascertain relocationlikely to take flight on their own in numbers tat could easily surpass quota levels. Given Illegal departures already occurring and (be mas* migration thai occurred during the Bosnian conflict, we expect these illicit flows to reach tens of thousands more in lhe months ahead.

flows could be substantially higher if the

i.sveittiltes,peouactod, or it hope forecum lo Kosovo diicisjsbes

the Bosnia crisis In die earlywhich resulted in about tbe tame overall number of refugee* as [he currenl Kosovohundreds of thousands of refugees with little hope of returning to theestern European bordc

Pledges Probably Needed

iiiona] organiiations will probably call for decpeneC commitmenti from third countries, as Albania and Macedonia groan under the pressure ofefugees already

there and additional outflows from Kosovo.

Ai the very loasU European Hales will collectively have to answer additional distress signals from Macedonia and Albania, which face political irnaabibty or humanitarian disaster unless Europe accepts larger numbers of|

West European Mate* will probably resist the call in part because of the likely increase in unorganizednot facilitated by reliefaccount for almostercent of Uk moveincnU of Kosovo refugee* to Europe since

The bulk of tbe iUleil migration will be by those intending to apply for asylum These flows could severely strain the border control and detention regimes of many countries.

Most of this flow is likely co affect Germany. Italy. Austria. Switzerland. Slovenia and,easer extent lhe United Kingdom and Greece, where sizable Kosovar and olher Albanian communities exist or where refugees interviewedthey will achieve (xocccvdSSSSSSSSSSJ

The flow of illegals will also present problems for countries used hi transittbe Czech Republic, Hungary. Siovaiij. andbeset with large global flows of illegal migrants taking advantage of porous

the Kosovo crisis drags on and refugee camps become moreproviders' plans for telecommunications and banking link* will facilitate connections with the Kosovar Albanianrefugees will abandon immediate hopes of return to Kosovo and seek resettlement opporniniues in western Europe.

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