SEIB: 1. RUSSIA: ANALYTIC PERSPECTIVE2. FRY: ANALYTIC PERSPECTIVE

Created: 4/7/1999

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Peace GambitH

Analytic Perspective

President Milosevic largely has achieved his mililary goals in Kosovo and now will focus onavorable political settlement, exploiting his control over "shadow president" Rugova. In the cease-fire announcement. Yugoslav and Serbian authorities offered toemporary political agreement with Rugova that could be the basisinal agreement keeping Kosovo in Serbia.

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announcement said FRY authorities and Rugova wouldrogram for the return of refugees with UNHCR and Red Cross participation.

A spokesman in Albania yesterday said rhe UCK will notease-fireATO presence in Kosovo to enforce it. The brutality of recent Serb operations suggests Kosovar Albanians will not be swayed by Milosevic's proposals.

whoettlement.

UCK has widespread support among ey will not return unless NATO enforces

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Secret

Struggling With Refugee Policy |

Interior Ministers today are trying to work out an equitable plan for distributingefugees that German Chancellor Schroeder on Saturday said Europe is willing to harbor, but they may defer final decisions lo the Foreign Ministers, who meet tomorrow. Several stales may increase their initial pledges in an effort to be seen as alleviating the human suffering andonstructive civilian counterpoint lo NATO's airstrikes.

Several EU countries in recent days have gone from rejecting new refugees to accepting lliousands-H

Ith* EU will be wary of repeating its experience with

Sosnian and Albanian refugees. Germany and Italy bore the brunt of those inflows, and many "temporary" refugees became permanent residents, exacerbating anU-irrunigrant sentiment and adding to social services costs.

European leaders say it is best to keep most refugees in tbe Balkans

to facilitate their eventual return and to avoid the appearance of acquiescing

to Milosevic's expulsions. EUthe UN, NGOs, and their

ownestablishing lent cities and mobile hospitals, and

providing food and medicine to entice refugees to remain in Albania and

Macedonia,

The EU has5 million in humanitarian assistance since the crisis began. |

According to media reports,osnian refugees3 billion to Bonn's social welfare coststhnic Albanian refugees wereermany before the crisis began.

J April

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