Created: 12/5/1987

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National Intelligence Daily



Special Analysis

Soviets Want From Summit

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doners' Secretary Gorbachev Is likely to claim that Kabul's announcement this weekmonth timetable lor withdrawing Soviet troops would demonstrate Uotcoa'i flexibility ande will probably press the US to reciprocate by-reducing eld to the Alghen resistance snd orore acl've role Inettlement. More far-reaching concessions are unlikely because ot Gorbachevs recant political eetbacki In Moscow and because Ihe situation In Afghanistan

TM Soviets probably hope that Inducing Washington ioore active re*ettlement wouldill between 'he US and Pakistan, provoke accusations ol betrayal from the resistance, and prompt world public opinion to view Afghanistan as prtmarfy an East-

Although the Soviets, over the past year, have had Kabul offer to share power with the resistanceoalition government, they do not seem ready toegime in which the Afghan Communistsinority rots. The Soviets continue to build up the* political and miliary forces In Afgharietan and can sustain or Increase their current level of operations al any time. Despite Moscow's recent embarrassment over the vole on tne UN resolution on Afghanistan, neither the International cost of Soviet Involvement nor the difficulty ot grindingotary slaWnatenwifln io make tne Kremlin abandon hopeolution thai would leave Its clientsominant position once Soviet troops were withdrawn.

A Soviet decision lo settle tor loss is particularly unlifcOy now. Moscow probably wants time to assess Nspbuliah's latest moves 10

e'im:-uie parly fact'oial ism,wn bilateral dscjss'cis with the jS and PakWan, and whether Islamabad's nuctear controversy wlih the

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