CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE - 21 APRIL 1988

Created: 4/21/1988

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATES

Thla weekly Situation Report is propared by tha Cantral Anerica and Nicaragua Branches, Oxfica of African and Latin American Analysis. Thla paper was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Conuaonta and queries ara wale on* and may ba directed to tha Chief. Middle Alter ca-Caribbean Division. ALA-

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE8

Pnrnpaetlva.- Assessment of Ccase-Fire Zones

While fundamental political and military differences remain In the ongoing negotiations between the Sandinistas and tha rebels, the two sides have banneredday truce and tentatively agreed to establish seven cease-fire zones. Nevertheless, talks in Managua this week failed to reach agreement on how to administer the tones and the enclaves' boundaries are still under discussion. The enclaves are large, representing store than one-sixth of Nicaragua's land mass. Overall, the zones would provide theespite from the conflict; but movement of the Insurgents Into the zones presents the rebels with aomo long tern, serious military disadvantages. Talks are scheduled to resume In Managua onpril.

The ceaae-fire cones would afford the rebels some advantages over their present situation. In particular, assuming that modalities for the delivery of humanitarian aid are worked out, movements into the enclaves would give the Insurgents much-needed access to food and medicine. The rebels probably also would be familiar with moat of the areas and the zones apparently will beone-sixth of Nicaragua's land mass. Three of the zones are contiguous with Honduras and could allow some military reaupply, although the presence of international observers would complicate such shipments.

Generally, however, the zones wouldebel attempt to resume fighting if the cease-fire collapaes. Both sides have not egreed as to whether there will be land "bridges" connecting the enclaves. Without such communications and logistical corridors linking the zones, rebel groups could have less contact with each other and their strategic command, severely complicating any attempts totrong military command and control infrastructure. The paucity of indigenous people and food suggests the local economy could not sustain significant insurgent forces should humanitarian aid end for any reason. The lackopulation base, moreover, would make it more difficult for the rebels to build popular supportolitical program. The Sandinistas have agreed to withdraw their forces from the xones. The proximity of Sandinlsta garrisons--many of which contain artillery fir* support bases and helicopter landingprobably give theignificant military advantage if the agreement collapses and fighting resumes.

Developmentseak

attration

Nicaraguan. police in San Ramon, Matagalpa Department, denied an opposition party request toally onpril,

Police said no outdoor

rallies could be heldar zone.

The opposition labor alliance in Nicaragua toldpolitical parties they can participate inay In Managua only if they do not bring* nion leaders

fear that overt political activity would tend to deemphaslza the focus on labor issues and alsoarsh government response. The labor alliance is also planning marches in Matagalpa and Chlnandega.

imited state of emergency, imposed on

8 April, onpril. | |

pril, Nicaraguan President Ortega publicly warned that the Sandinistas would not permit US aid to any internal opposition party If President Reagan extends the trade embargoay. [

Cease-Fire/Anneaty

Nicaraguan rebel and Sandinlsta directorate members failed to reach agreement on issues relating to administration ofzones In four days of negotiations In Managua last week. They agreed to continue negotiations In Managuapril. Insurgent leadersandinlsta proposalimetable for rebel disarmament. The Sandinistas are Insisting that all political issues be deferred to the national dialogue talks.

icaraguan rebel leader Adolfo Calero announcedhe insurgents would soon free all their prisonersat aboutthe request of thebishops.

wo returning exiles affiliated with the Guatemalanarrested as they arrived in Guatemala City onreeident Cerezo had previoualy

announced that theyrrested unless they accepted amnesty. The two were later releasedudge investigating the case found insufficient evidence to continue proceedings.

Salvadoran leftist political leader Ruben Zamora told the presspril that the guerrillas snd their political

allies were still weltingovernment response to their February dialogue proposal. 2amora indicated that the talks should focus on thats-point plan to humanize the war. Heettlement in El Salvador possible in light of the Nicaraguan peace talka. but did not explicitly say that tha Sapoa accordodal for El Salvador. Meanwhile, President Duarteelevised speech onpril rejected any new dialogue with tho guerrillas since the insurgents have not changed their conditions or attitude toward seizing power through armed force, i i

National Reconciliation

A faction of the Nicaraguan Conservative Party ia urging other opposition groups to boycott the national dialogue until rebal leaders can Join the talked

A Conservative party official aaid rebel directorate members Calero and Cesaroycott, f

Nicaraguan Conservative Partyof whomties to rebel political leadera--plan to advise themexisting opposition parties rather than forming theirThe

advice reflects growing opposition concur tnax tne provision in the Sapoa accord allowing the rebel* to have eight parties participate in the national diaogue would give the insurgents undue influence.

International Verification

entral American representative* at the UN presented the

Executive Commission communique to the Secretary General on 13

Apr The

Secretariat'* cover letter to- Canada, Spain, 'and Weat Germany noted that the Costa Rlcan spokesman hsd expressed hope of taking advantage of the Secretary General'* expertise In setting up verification machinery, but Costa Rlcan officials told the US EmbaBsy that San Jose did not want the UN Involved. Canadian and West Gorman diplomats told US officials that their governments would notormal response until the Central Americans define more precisely what they want-

According to the Stat* Department, OAS Secretary-General Baana Soares haaudget for verifying the Nicaragua cease-fire agreement which he Intended to discuss with Cardinalravo thla week In Managua. The proposal would use most of the funds for monitoring cease-fire zones and very little to asneoB compliance with democratization.

I I

Tho OAS Secretary General disagreed sharply with plans byto deliver supplies to Honduras for the

Scares argued thatove would be outside Ot the Sapoa accorda and could threaten tho peace process. Be personally believed that the use of private companies to deliver supplies was less compatible with the agreoment than using international agencies, but said itubject for the Sandinistas and insurgents to decide.

iras announced onpril that it was allowingaid to be delivered to anti-Sandinietaits soil, saying that the Sapoa accord betweenthe rebels provided the basis for its action.

first five truck!oads

of food were loaded unaer me supervision of an observer team of the Honduran Catholic Church. Nicaragua has alraady denounced the Honduran actioniolation of the regional peace agreement. | |

Rsfugess

loiqiir, srwJrdlng t6 an oiiicin inmuu I

Honduran National Refugee Commission is considering concentrating all Salvadoran refugees from Colomoncagua and San Antonio campn in the Mesa Grande refugee complex.

"although the idea II attractive to some militaryt was not supported by General Regslsdo when discussed last December.

0ther Developments

Costa Rlcan. Foreign Ministry officlsls planned tomall technical team to Managuapril toagional treaty of friendship and cooperationl-

osta Rican President Arias told the press last weekossible invitation to visit the In making his decision. Arias said he would weighof Gorbachev to contribute to Centralrecent

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