MIDDLE EAST-SOUTH ASIA: NUCLEAR HANDBOOK

Created: 5/1/1988

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Middle East-South Asia: Nuclear Handbook

A Reference Aid

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Middle East-South Asia: Nuclear Handbook P

A Reference Aid

This paper was prepared by

of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis:Office of Leadershipticc of Scientific and Weapons Research;

ill: a

Office of Imagery Analysis; wit

cuni::bi;nonIt was

with tne uireciorate of Operations. |

Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to thel

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8

Middle East-South Asia: Nuclear Handbook I

InfofiHautm available at of If8 hoi mrd Ino/i.

the past two decades, countries in the Middle East and South Asia have moved steadily to expand their nuclear capabilities. Activities range from basic university research to operation of sophisticated nuclear power programs and. in some instances, to covert nuclear weapons research and development programs. Like countries in other parts of the world, the States in this area have pursued nuclear programsost ofthe need for economical energy sources, the desire to develop and to stay close to leading technologies and scientific applications, and theto compete for influence, prestige, and power regionally andThe Middle East and South Asiaistory of regional conflict, political volatility, and social disquiet that makes nuclear activityubject of special concern.

countries are interested in nuclear technology for civilian applications:

Twoandnuclear power reactors, and nine others, including Egypt and Israel, hope to have power reactors within the nextears. Most, however, are unlikely to achieve this goal because of economic and political constraints.

Nuclear technology could become important to food production. In India, for example, improved crop varieties are being developed from radiation-induced crop mutations.

The region's health facilities use nuclear technology for insect and pest control, sterilization of medical products, and medical diagnosis and

therapy,

Most Middle Eastern and South Asian countries have not developed theor technical abilities to deal with the safety problems nuclear power can pose. Indian nuclear facilities, for example, already have hadproblems. Responseshernobyl' or Three Mile Island-type accident would be much slower and less effective than in the USSR or the United States, and much more human and environmental damage would result than occurred in the USSR. I

andful of states have pursued weapons development, but the prospects that more will follow suit are strong:

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of lhe siaies in the region could have initiated or advanced its nuclear program without foreign technology and equipment. The degree ofon external assistance varies widely, but even the most sophisticated programs in the region rely on outside help:

mau Msumciency in nuclear power but is showing interest in purchasing Soviet power reactors.

Although some Middle Eastern and South Asian states are probably pursuing nuclear technology only for prestige, many are serious aboutuclear infrastructure thai will enable them lo utilize the benefits of the technology in the future. Despite growing opposition to nuclear power in parts of the developed world, many Middle Eastern and South Asian states cominue to favor it. and the region could become amarket for nuclear suppliers. The United States, which paved the way to nuclear technology for many of the region's states with the Atoms for Peace Program, couldajor role in lhe region's nuclear future if proliferation concerns can be resolved. I-

Scopehandbook provides readers wiih basic facts about nuclear programs in

the Middle East and Souih Asia. It also examines ihe exlem toin the region rely on foreign support for their nuclearlhe prospects for nuclear weapons proliferation.

Information in this handbook is restricted to ihe Secret level io allow maximum distribution. Despite the exclusion of more highly classified material, sufficient information was available to describe the status of nuclear programs throughout the region as well as to make judgments concerning proliferation dangers.!

Algeria

To meet the energy needs of Algeria's expanding

as an infringement of itscircumscribes its future nuclear options. As an Arab leader. Bcndjcdid also probably refuses on principle

and still maintain sufficient oil and natural since Israel has not signed

gas exports to sustain ihc economy, Ihc Bcndjcdid .

government has chosen to use nuclear power toexisting energy resources. Thenuclear program will growesult5 to purchase the country'sreactorilot fuel fabricationISxiil-

ing economic and technological limitation! indicate that the rate of that growth will probably be ilow.

Algeria, which has not signed the Nuclear Non-Prolifcration Treatyrobably can beto accept limiled safeguards, which will help to ensure that the country's low proliferation potential is keptinimum. I

Organization

The New Energies Cum minionhichthe Center of Science and Nuclear Technologyupervises nuclear research and development in Algeria. CEN's director reports directly to Ihe President and holds the rankabinet minister. CEN has six "centers" or divisions and employseople, accordingawrence Livcrmote study|

Key Decisionmakers

As President and Minister of NationalBcnd)edid has ultimate responsibilityelf-described pragmatist. Bcndjcdid 1

is first and foremost interested in Algeria's economic Electricity Production development and is pursuing nuclear power foruses. We have no reporting that he favors nuclear AlgeriaapacityW. virtually all weapons development. Bcndjcdid, however, refuses to of which is supplied by oil and natural gas. In March sign the NPT or to accept full-scope safeguards for 1 the governmentuclear energy pro-Algerian nuclear facilities. We believe his refusal is gram aimed at meetingercent of the country's based on both nationalistic and pragmatic grounds. Signing would open Algerian facilities toAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

electrical energy -eeds from nuclear power b> thenlikely to reach iu goal because it has not begun toower reactor.

Uraaiun Mining

Algeria has an0 metric tons ofreserves, accordinguclear energyis conducted in Gara Ekar. Dahra region,

mines produce cnougn uranium yeanyons of yellow cakeoncentrate produced during milling containingercent uranium oxide! I

1 "lunations! Relations

negotiated wiih numerous countries :oiu nuclear program but appears to have settled on Argentina as iu prune supplier:

" In therance conducted feasibility studiesower reactor andeal to design anduclear research center that was

io include three research reactors. Financialand lack of water for cooling the reactors stymied these projects

with the United Slatesesearch reactor failed because of Algeria'sto sign the NPT and accept full-scope safeguards.

Other negotiations with potential West European suppliers failed because of similar difficulties.

rgentina agreed lo sellW research reactor and provide training and other support functions. The research reactor is under construction, but the program is experiencingand supply problems. Argentina claims the agreement calh for IAEA safeguards in all nuclear transfers, accordingawrence Livermorc siudy.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh isore of trained nuclear personnel, but financial problems are inhibitingadvances in its nuclear program. Dhaka's first research reactor begannd the country has plans to build al least one power reactorl

Organization

The Bangladesh Atomic Energystablisheds part of the Minisiry of Energy. The BAEC employscientists andJ

Key Decisionmakers

President and Minister of Defense HussainErstiad dominates all aspects of nationalincluding nuclear matters. He has no scientific training or experience and probably relies heavily on others for technical advice. Ershad. who seized powerloodless coupuclear power program. He has no known aspirations to develop nuclear weapons,!

Minister of Energy and Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anwar Hussain is Bangladesh's leading nuclear expert. He reports directly to Ershad and, like Ershad, supports power development but not weapons.

W plant, which would increase electrical output byercent,ajor expansion in the capacity of the country's power arid.) I

Prodnction

Bangladesh currently has plans ioW reactor near Pabna with foreign financial andassistance. Some potential foreign suppliers have questioned the need for expensive nuclear power given Bangladesh's large supplies of natural gas. They have also expressed doubts that Bangladesh can bring on

Uranium Mining

|substantialwere discovered in lhe Sylhet area inBAEC intended to mine the deposits ifthey were commercially viable. Wcno information to indicate any fotlowup

Iniernutioniil Rrlalions

Bangladesh depends on foreign sources for all iis nuclear program's needs, li has discussed assistance with several states.!-

Bangladesh has talked with Canada,itcu Stales. Japan, and France aboutower reactor, but its most recent efforts have been with Argentina and West Germany.

Bangladesh considered purchasing hot cells from private firms in Canada and the United Kingdom, but it eventually bought them from East European suppliers.

The USSR offered toomplete foodplant two years ago. but we have no infor-mation on the current status of this offer]

Egypt's longstanding plans for building nuclear power planu remain on hold because of safety concerns, financing difficulties, and the lack of an adequate technical infrasiructutej-

Moreover, the Chernobyl nuclear increased public and government sensitivity to nuclear safety and Further slowed plans to build nuclear power plants. Nonetheless, official interest in nuclear power generation remains alive and is likely to grow if tbe hydroelectric capabilities of the Aswan High Dam fallesultrolonged drought.

of contact with nuclear supplier nations, including the United States, and has been successful in acquiring foreign technological assistance for the program,] |

Organi ration

The Ministry of Electricity and Energy supervisesnuclear endeavors through theEnergy Establishment (EAEEland thePower Plant AuthorityEAEE. established

csponsiolc lor most atomic research and operates the Nuclear Research Center at Inshas Ar Ramal and the National Center for Radiation Research and Technology in Cairo. The NPPA coordinates Egypt's efforts to acquire nuclear power, includingfor purchasing foreign rcactorsJ

Key Decisionmakers

President Hosni Mubarak has final responsibility for Egypt's nuclear activities. Nevertheless, we believe he remains aloof from most aspects of nuclear decisionmaking, preferring to rdy on trusted subordinatci.

"[Mubarak

probably recognizes Egypt's need lor nuclear power but favors gradual development to avoid the posslbili-tyhernobyl'-style accident. I-

of Electricity and Energy Mohammed Maher Abaza, who reports to the President, has Cabinet-level responsibility for mosl of Egypt'sactivities.ecade Abaza has been the government's untiring and outspoken advocate of nuclear power development. He is Egypt's main point

Electricity Production

Egypt hopes to meetercent of itsuclear power by theut this ambitious goal is unlikely lo be

brea kins torrsi power ptanid Daas been slallcd for years, and wc believe il will be indefinitely delayed unless financing problems are overcome, f-

I raniom Mining

Egypt is mining uranium. Inhe Electricity and Energy Minister announced that promisingore discoveries had been made in the As Sahra ash Shurqiyah (Eastern Desert) and Sinai. Before this discovery, Egypt's uranium resources were estimatedons, according to ihe IAEA.|

Relations

Egypt has nuclear cooperation agrcemcnis wiihcountries. Although initial Egyptian interest in nuclear power was raised by the US Atoms for Peace Program, rapidly deteriorating relations within theOi pushed Cairo toward the USSRuclear patron4 Egypt signed its first agreementthe USSRuclear research ccmer. Since then. Egypi has sought to expand its nuclear base by signing nuclear cooperationwith the IAEA, India, Yugoslavia, Italy, tbe United Kingdom, the United States, Sweden,France. West Germany, Canada, Australia, Libya.wiir.erUnd. Belgium, Spain, and Niger.

and Safely Center and has given the EgyptianResearch Center0 worth ofThe Germans also provide training.I

Egypt has been active in international forums on nonproliferation issues and strongly promotes nuclear-weapons-frec zones in the Middle East and elsewhere,

]Egypt has also

signed anil ratified lae Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for nuclear damage and the agreement on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials.!-

The United Slates and West Germany are Egypt's most active nuclear partners. The United Slatesizable training program underilateraland the IAEA program. West Germanya full-time expert to the Nuclear Regulatory

India has an extensive tind sophisticated nuclear program The nuclear program is pari of an overall industrialization siratcgy guidedesirevoid reliance on external assistance* India has six nuclear power reactors of mixed foreign and indigenousand four more are under construction.

Indian leaders, opposes the NPT on the grounds lhat it discriminates against Third World slates and is an ineffective arms control measure.!

Minister of Slate for Science and Technology Kocheril Ramanhe ranking official in ihe Science and Technologyas the chief executor of Gandhi's nuclear policies. We believe he plays almost no role in policy formulation.

uclear device4 andhas the capability lo produce nuclear weapons. In all likelihood, India hasmall, covert weapons program since4 test in anticipation of an eventual decision to build and deploy nuclear weapon systems!

Malur Ramaswamy Srinivasan, who became DAE principal secretary and AEC chairman inupervises ihe Indian nuclear program's daily opera lions.

The Department of Atomic Energy (DAE)all Indian nuclear programs, and the DAE's principal secretary chairs the Atomicix-member policy advisory group, The secretary reports lo the Prime Minister through the Minister ol* State for Science and Technology.

khc DAE0 persons, including0 scientists and technicians The Department operates fourfacilities:a baa Atomic Research Center iBARCi ai Trotnbay; the Indira Gandhi Center for Atomic Research al Kalpakkam. lhe Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics in Calcutta; and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in

Key Decisionmakers

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who also holds ihe Science and Technology portfolio, makes all final decisions oa nuclear policies He supports continued development of India's nuclear energy program to facilitate steady rnodernixaoon of ibc country. Gandhi claims that he opposes lhe proliferation of nuclear weapons, but he has made clear thatnuclear weapons ambitions are forcing aof India's nuclear goals. Gandhi, like previous

MadrasW power reactor:

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel.

Supplier: Indigenous construction.

Safeguards: No.

W power reactor:

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel.

Supplier: Indigenous construction.

Safeguards: No.

NaroraW power reactor (under construction):

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel.

8 target.

Supplier: Indigenous construction.

Reactors

Safeguards: No.

has the following nuclear reactors:

NaroraW power reactor (under

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel.

0 target.

Supplier: Indigenous construction.

Safeguards: No.

W power reactor (under construction):

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel.

3 target.

Supplier Indigenous construction.

Safeguards: No.

W power reactor (under construction):

Heavy-water moderated, natural uranium fuel,

5 target.

Supplier: Indigenous construction.

Safeguards: No.

"Vctcl

E

: estimate India willase-ercent of ils electricalnuclear power generation in lhe next live years.

Uranium Mining

India has an0 mclric tons of uranium reserves, according io the IAEA. There are active uranium ore concentration operations at Jaduguda, and uranium recovery plants ai Surda, Rakha. and Musbabanij

um production is estimated^ tons annually. Q

]

India's deposits ofaterial that can be useduclear fuel, are among the largest in the world. The Indians have tried to utilize thorium, which can be irradiated in breeder reactors or heavy-water reactors to convert the fuel to. Their process, however, is not economical and produces highly, whicherious handling and disposal problem.

International Relations

India's relations with other nations often have been troubled by New Delhi's determined go-it-aloneon nuclear matters and its refusal lo sign the NPT. I

Electricity Productioa

ercent of lheMWcapacity is supplied by nuclear power. India plansncrease Ihatoercent in tbe next IS years, bui Indian nuclear officials recognize (hat goal will be dimcull to achieve.!-

Canada supplied India with two nuclear powerbut stopped cooperation and supplies6 before the second plant was finished because of New Delhi's covert use of plu ionium from the Cirus reactor in4 nuclear explosion. India's refusal to accept safeguards and sign the NPT also contributed to Canada's decision. Apart from Tarapur, all of India's nuclear power reactors are based on Canadian-supplied technology.

The United States, which provided India with its first nuclear powerAtomiclopped nuclear cooperation

wilh India0 because of the NPThort time later, however, the United States eased some of its nonproliferation policies and helped locatesuppliers fot fuel and spare parts for TAPS. France agreed2 to provide some of the fuel, and3 West Germany agreed to supply spare parts, accordinguclear scholar on South Asia.

French and West German firms built heavy-water plants in India with help from Swiss consultants. The French and Swiss continue to supply India with

nuclear fuel and technology. France haswith India the possibility of buildingplants. The Soviet Union supplies Indiawater and is discussing cooperation inconstruction.

India's nuclear establishment is divided over the issue of acquiring foreign reactors. Those opposed argue thai foreign reactors would not mesh well wiih the indigenous system and that safeguards would be

CMI

required. They also worry lhai dealing wiih Ihewould make lhe Indian nuclear programto Moscow for fuel, just as ii has been hostageUnited States and France. The costs and lossin purchasing foreign reactors alsotheir opposiiion. On the other side, theinfluential science adviser,avors importing reactors lo meet thepower needs. If those favoring outsidethe process of incorporating foreignis likely to be slow and

India has had or now has nuclear coopcraiionwiih several countries, including Argentina, Egypt. France. Libya. Poland. West Germany, Swit-zerland, Italy, lhe United States, and the Soviei Union. Most of these agreements provide only for exchanges of scientists, training, collaboration in se-lected areas, and exchanges of information. I-

New Delhi's go-it-alone philosophy has contributed lo its inability to meet some nuclear goals as well as given rise to significant safety and environmental concerns:

Power reactor shutdowns because of safety and maintenance problems have aggravated electricity shortages, and heavy-water planu have been unable to meet production targets.

Radiation leaks from some reactors have been above recognized safe levels. Accordinguclear power expert, inhe Tarapur power reactor became an environmental hazard because radiation levels were high and maintenance poor. Thousands of untrained maintenance workers receivedradiation doses.

Theower reactor has had heavy-water

Iran

The Khomeini regime,iatus caused by the revolution, reinstituted Iran's nuclear programhe new program apparently is directed at resurrecting al least part of the Shah's ambitious nuclear power plans, but few visible results have been achieved. Efforts are under way to secure theforeign assisunce to complete the Bushehrpower reactori aadilot-teaIt fuel fabrica-lion plant andfacility.!-

Iran docs noteapons proliferation threat at this time. Uranium cnnchmeni and weapons design work done before9 revolution, although tt did not progress fir. couldoundation for future weapons development, accordinguclearexperi Tehran's ambitions for regionalas well as concern with Pakistani and Iraqi nuclear achievements provide the major incentives for Iran touclear weapons program. Although Tehran, in our view, will iry eventually toeapons capability, il lacks irained scientists and an unsafeguarded source of weapons-grade uranium or

Rcza Amrollahi, director of AEOIa high profile by leading Iran's delegations to IAEA conferences, handling public relations, and negotiating with foreigners.

Atomic Energy Organization of Iranstablishedversees all aspects of the Iranian nuclear program, Ils director, counseledour-member advisory committee, reports directly to the Prime Minister.!

Key Decisionmakers

Prime Minister Mir Hosein Musavi-Khameneinuclear matters in the Iranian parliament. He publicly supports the development of nuclear power, bul we have seen no evidence that he isuclear weapons development

if

Iniernationai Relations

The Success of the Khomeini regime's nucleardepends heavily on securing foreign assistance, an objective that will be difficult to achieve as long as the Iran-Iraq war continues. Iran's program under the Shah laid the basis for close links to Westernincluding lhe United Slates. West Germany's Kraftwerk Union, and the French-based Eurodifenrichmeni facilily.8 doubts within the government about Iran's overly ambitious plans began io surface because of serious financial problems. Many of Iran's foreign nuclear agreements were terminated before9 revolution, and ihe new Islamic government canceled the rest of the program and withdrew from Eurodif. The Khomeini regime considered it ridiculous torogram that depended totally on foreign expertise, accordinguclear energy expert. I-

rodueiion

Iran under lhe Shah planned lo have by Ihe0 nuclear power planu providing0 MW of electricity, but construction had begun on only two of ibe plants when9 revolution stopped work. West Germany's refusal to grant export permiu for sensitive nuclear equipment for lhe Bu-shchr reactor and other complications caused by the Iran-Iraq war have prevented significant progress toward completing this power project.[

Uranium Mining

Iranons of uranium reserves, none of which is currently mined, li was exploring foruranium deposits inf-

ran began an effort to settle its disputes with French and West German suppliers, which arose from the cancellation of their contracts and Iran's withdrawal from Eurodif. Tehran probably realized it would waste the billions of dollars already spent on the program if the projects remained dormant Iran has sought repayment of the Eurodif loan and ma> seek French aid in other areas. Pahs hat already repaid two-thirds of Iran's original Eurodif loan. Iran is workingowortium of companies from West Germany. Argentina, and Spain to complete theower reactor, although the danger to construction workers because of Ihe Iran-Iraq war is limiting progress. Western firms arc reluctant to send workersar rone, and Iraq's air attack onushchr in7 was probably intended to reinforce ihese

In an effort to keep iu dependence on traditional Western suppliersinimum. Iran has turned to Argentina and China. Argentina, in addition to its Bushchr work, is providing technology and training. Buenos Aires has agreed to help convert Tehran's research reactor from highi) enrichederccntl to low -enriched uranium fuel, and ioerceni -enriched fuel underuclear cooperation agreement was

no reporting on his views on nuclear weapons

Iraq has the most ambitious nuclear research program in the Arab world, and it is continuing touclear capability despite destruction of its Osirak reactor by Israelhe war with Iran, and severe financial constraints. Before the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. Baghdad used its oil leverage with energy-poor nuclear suppliers such as France and Italy toide range of equipment and technology, including key elements of the fuel cycle.

We believe Iraq's ultimate goal is touclear weapons capability, although we have noeapons program. Iraq has made special efforts to acquire technologies necessary to produce Plutonium, which it does not need for its power program. Baghdad's nuclear weapons ambitionsare driven by its interest ineader in the Arab world, the need to obtain the necessary military strength to counter the long-term threat from Iran. and concern over Israel's nuclear capabilities)

Organization

The Atomic Energy Commission of Iraqounded6 and chaired by Iraq's president, administers the country's nuclear policies andThe commission's most important facility is the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Cenier.1

Key Decisionmakers

President and AECI Chairman Saddam Husayncertainly makes all major nuclear decisions. We believe Husayn wants touclear weapons capability, but he probably realizes this is technologi-cally impossible in the near term.

Atomic Energy Commission Director Rahim al-Kital has servedember of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors since at leastlthough we believe he plays anrole in Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear power, we

Electricity Production

None of Iraq's electricity is supplied by nuclear power. Iraq's Atomic Energy Commission plans foroercent of Iraq's electricity to be produced by nuclear power by the yeargoal that is unlikely to be reached. The closest Baghdad has comeecision toower reactor has been commissioning site feasibility studies. The production of nuclcar-gcncraied electricity is probablyriority in Iraq's economic development plans,it has other abundant energy resourcesoil, and

Mining

Iraq has no significant uranium reserves, but the Al Qa'im phosphate fertilizer plantacility for the extraction of uranium from phosphates,f

jlraq estimates its phosphate

reservesillion tons.

conducted site surveys in Iraquclear power reactor and may hope toontract to construct il Iraq has asked the IAEA for assistance in evaluating the Soviet proposals, and. if work proceeds, firms from several European countries may act asconsultants.!

Relations

The Iraqis have relied heavily on foreign equipment, personnel, and training to assist in Ihe development of their nuclear program. In the last two decades, most of the aid has been provided by France and Italy, supplementing the USSR, Iraq's initial nuclear

France and Italy have made major contributions to the extensive research facilities at Tuwaitha. Iraq signed an agreement wiih France5uclear research center and two research reactorsndork on the reactors stopped in1 after the Israeli raid. Although Paris agreed in principle to rebuild the destroyed and damaged reactors il

Soviet Union has been linked to Iraq's nuclear program since, when Moscow supplied Tuwaitha's first research reactor. The Soviets have

French firms have

dene only some cleanup worn on ihc Osirak reactor

Iraqillion nuclear cooperation agree-men! wiih Italy6 for the supply of five laboratories, including one with hot cells for remote handling of radioactive material, according io aenergy expert. Italy, however, has stopped its support to Iraq's nuclear program because of US pressure. I-

Brazil has agreed to supply Iraq with enrichedand to help with uranium prospecting, but only some uranium oxide has been supplied. Iraq has also acquired large quaniities ofin the form of yellowseveral sources including Niger, Portugal, and Spain.!-

Nuclear cooperation discussions with India havein an agreement for India to train Iraqiand engineers, but New Delhi has refused to transfer technology under any

Cooperation wim lariaoa. Pakistan, and Egypt, but we are unaware of progress in these discussions. The United States has no nuclear cooperation wiih Iraq, although we believe Baghdad has senthe United States to study nuclear science.

H%-M'i. Maui

Israel

The driving force behind Israel's nuclear program is national security]

tie Downing

ot Iraq's Usirak reactor1 illustrates Israel's determination toonopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

Israel, which began nuclear research as soon as ittateas the most advanced nuclear technology in the Middle East. Although it would like to buy nuclear powerwould be much cheaper than building itsabout its nuclear weapons program have limited cooperation with nuclear suppliers. Concern among potential suppliers over Arab reaction to cooperation with Israel has alsoroblem for Israeli

The Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) is the principal national authority concerned wiih nuclear policy and program administration. Attached to the Office of the Prime Minister, the IAEC manages the nation's research facilities and programs with the assistance of relevant government ministries such as Defense, Foreign Affairs, Science and Developmeni. and Energy and Infrastructure.operations of Israel's two researchIAEC's bureaucratic structure consistsirectoreputy director general, several advisory subcommittees, and at least three functional divisions. We estimate lhat the overall IAECand technical staffersonnel.

IAECormer senior governmentsit on tbe main board, the apex of the lAEC's structure. They are responsible for policy support to the commission.F)

Despite Israeli claims that the Defense Ministry has little or no involvement in the nuclear program, the Ministry almost certainlyole in tbe country's nuclear activities. We believe the IAEC and the Defense Ministry operate in tandem.

Key Decisionmakers

Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir is chairman of the IAEC and has final authority over nuclear policy. He professes to oppose the proliferation of nuclearand has called for the creationuclear-free zone in the Middle East. Nevertheless, like previous Israeli leaders, he has refused to sign the NPT, noting that Israel would compromise its nuclear capabilities if it were forced io open all its facilities to IAEA inspection. Moreover, Shamir has never dismissed the possibility of an Israeli nuclear deterrent to counter the conventional forces of Israel's Arab neighbors.

its relationship with the Defense Ministry, the IAECizable internal bureaucracy that deals with various nuclear activities, including the

Because Israel lacks naiural energy resources,oil. Shamir supports the development of nuclear power reactors.

Production

Israellectrical generating capacity, but no electricity is produced by nuclear power. Israel has researched the feasibility of nuclear power and hasite in the Negcv desertuture nuclear plant. The Israel Electrical Corporationthat Israel will notuclear plant until theel Aviv's research has concluded that it would be less expensive for Israel to acquire foreign nuclear power technology than to produce its own power reactors.

Cranium Mining

Israel has no uranium deposits, but since thet has been recovering uranium from phosphate deposits in the Negev desert. Uranium recovery is almost Certainly sufficient to permit the continuing operation of the Dimona reactor, which probably consumes no more thanoons of uranium per year.

ll^et

International Relations

Israel's refusal lo sign lhe NPT and io put all its nuclear installations under IAEA safeguards haslimited nuclear cooperation with otherFor instance. Israel has unsuccessfullyseveralthe United States. Canada. France. Spain, the United Kingdom, anduclear reactor and nuclear technology. Serious discussions developed only with France, but Paris pulled out of thebecause of concerns about damage to itswith important Arab trading partners.

Libya

Libya has tome of lhe rnoni modern nuclearlhe Middle East, bul tor the last decade ithat not assigned high priority to itsDuring, after Mu ammartook power, the regimen: nuclear power production withtraining of nuclear researcher* and scientists,purchase of sutc-of-the-art nuclearof these plans have been tbeWcd becausetroubled relations with its neighbors,to provide much of the manpower forand becauie of Qadhafi'* insistence onhis maverick political ideas before anyob)eciive. If the regime were to decidea nuclear weapons capability, we dothat goal could be reached for at least

Sabha and served on lhe committee thai negotiated Libya's now defunct union with

Organization

The Libyan Atomic Energy Commissionormerly the Secretariat of Atomic, reports to Qadhafi through the Council of Ministers. We believe lhat ihe laner has tittle influence on nuclear policymaking and serves onlyeporting capacity. Tbe Tajara' Nuclear Research Center is the LAEC's principal facility andl probably the major source of expert advice on nuclear] matters for Qadhafi and the government. 1

Key Decisionmakers

Col. Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi has longtrong interestuclear weapons capability and has made unsuccessful efforts io obtain weapons directly from China.!-

Director Nuri al-Fayturi al-Madniormer Transportnd has no previous training or expertise in nuclear matters. We believe he received his current post primarily because heood manager who has demonstrated appropriate revolutionary commitment.|

""lheevolutionary committee in

Electricity Produeiion

LibyaW electric power eapaeiiy, none of which is supplied by nuclear energy. Libya has had plans1 io purchase twoW nuclear power reactors, but construction has not

relationship tense.

Working-level relations NIwceB LiByan" nuclear officials are poor. Libyan officials resent the condescending altitude of their Soviet counterparts and suspect them of stalling and padding costs and prices. The two sides have experienced considerable friction over whether Libya will pay for nuclear help in petroleum or hard currency, wilh Moscow insisting on the latlerl

begun becauseailure io agree on payment, terms and controversies over which country will man key componenis.1

Uranium Mining

Libya has no known uranium deposits but hasprojects under way in the Qarar Mar2.uk (basin) and the Kufra Basin. The uranium deposits found in the Aozou Strip, which is territory disputed with Chad, is probably one of the reasons behindetermination to hold onto the arca.i

.Aside from lhe research center supplied by the Soviet Union, Libya's gains from nuclear cooperationwith other Slates have been modest-

ibya and Pakistan were engaged in prolonged nuclear-related negotiations, according tostudies. The rela-(ienibip probably resulted in some Libyan financial and material assistance to Pakistan's nuclearbut il is unclear whether Libya benefited. The relationship with Pakistan deteriorated soon afier Ali Bhutto's ouster as Prime Minister of Pakistan

ibya initiated discussions with Belgiumranium teiraliuoridc plant and nonnuclear services for the planned Soviet-supplied powerUS pressure on Belgium5 halted negotiations.

Libyan efforts toower reactor from Argentina have not progressedivilian government gained power in Argentina,

4 agreement wilh Brazil for uraniumand development services has shown little

Relations

Libya's most important foreign nuclear partner is the5 agreement with Moscow provided Libya with the Tajara' Nuclear Research Center and includes provisions for training Libyan nuclearand scientists, accordinguclear power expert.I-

The United States has never had nuclear dealings with Libya, which3 was placedisi of stales subject to especially strict nuclear exportLibyan students in ihe United Siaies were prohibited al that time from continuing their studies in nuclear-re la ted sciences During, Libya relied on US universities for training in nuclear physics and engineering. Since Ihe expulsion of the

among Libya's nuclear officials overunwillingness to supply Libya with detailed or sensitive nuclear lechnology has kept the nuclear

it

jnd i:oa has allsmplfdend

Morocco

The Moroccan Government is consideringone toW nuclearfpUnuthe country'1 heavy dependence onercent ofenergy wto the success of these [itns istooreign nuclear partner thaiprovide the necessary

the nuclear

views ol the TCnj's subordinates, wc expect them to support and implement the King's policy directives with little deviation.roup, Ihey almosi certainly support ihe acquisition of nuclear power for economic and commercial reasons.

The recently constituted National Center for Nuclear Energy. Science, and Technology oversees andall national nuclear activities, according to US Embassy reporting. Moroccan nuclear officials,have told US diptocnau that, in practice, the Ministries of National Education and of Energy and Mines frequently challenge the National Center for control of nuclear matters. The National School of Industrial Minerals, which is suboidinate to lbeEducation Ministry, will operate the Trigaesearch reactor, which is to be constructed in Rabat.

Decisionmakers

King Hassan II supports the careful development of nuclear power.1

Wc have seen no indicationc King is in in nuclear weapons research. I

Electricity Production

MoroccoW electrical capacity. None of Morocco's electricity is produced by nuclear power, but the government hasadd upW of nuclear-gene rated electrical capacity

Hilali became Minister of Nationalfirst

Mohamcd Fettah has been Minister of Energy and Minesf

Uranium Mining

Moroccoillion tons of uranium associated with the country's large phosphate deposits. Industrial technology to make extraction of the uranium ecc-nomicaHy feasible has not been developed,

Interna lional Relation*

Morocco needs foreign support for all aspects of its nuclear program. Rabat has sought foreign help in uranium extractionesearch, and nuclear power plant construction. Discussions with several countries have resulted in cooperation mainly with the United States and France, although some nuclear activities are being pursued with other Arab states.

US firmower reactor and two uraniumplants, but they were discontinued afterrimarily because of strong competition from the French.I

Despite King Hassan's preference for US technology, Morocco has turned to France for some of its nuclearbecause of better financial terms. Beginning inuring negotiations with the French over construction of uranium extractionthe Moroccans discussed the purchase ofdevelopment packages. These were to have included: French purchase of all Moroccan uranium oxide at guaranteed prices, enrichment services for that portion of Moroccan uranium oxide needed toower reactor, construction of the powerand training of personnel to operate the facility. We do not know the results of these talks.oroccan nuclear engineers were being trained in France at French expense,!-

Ithough the Frcncn government wouia like this new market, it has been hesitant because Morocco is heavily in debt,j

The French firm Sofratomeontract3 whereby Sofratome would conduct site and feasibility studies for Morocco's first nuclear power plant. Among the issues to be resolved include evaluations of prospective sites, along with the technical feasibility of desalination of sea water at the coastal sites.

Negotiations were begun in6 betweenand the United States that resulted in acooperation agreement that was ratifiedThis agreement was the first nuclearagreement between the United States andnation after passage of tbe NuclearActnga researchcontracted for1 bul never installed,now plans toarger Trigsfrom the United States that willof the unfinished

Jvegoiiations began wun a

^SeWf^

Pakistan is the only state in the Middle FasiAsia besides India touclearIslamabad's civilian nuclear program lagsweapons

Pakistan has made excellent uselandestine nuclear procurement network to master the fuel cycle anduclear weapons capability. Theprogram, which began inith help from the US Atoms for Peace Program,ew and more dangerous turn inollowing amilitary defeat by India1 and New Delhi's peaceful nuclear explosion6 then Foreign Minister Bhutto pledged that Pakistan would match India's nuclear capabilities and vowed that Pakistanis would "eat grass" to reach that goal.

research facility is the Pakistan Institute for Nuclear and Technologyocaied near

lslam.it

Pakistan's other key nuclear organization is the Khan Research Laboratoriesamed after itsAbdul Qadcer Khan. KRL operates Pakistan's unsafeguurded gas-centrifuge uranium-enrichment plant at Kahuia, which is the country's most likely means for acquiring weapons-grade fissile material. The independent-minded A. Q. Khan appears to run KRLeparate organization, free from theof his longtime rival. PAEC Chairman Munir Khan. I-

for nuclear weapons development is the one political issue the Pakistani population and political parties agree on. according to media polls. Pakistan has repeatedly denied it isuclear weapons capability. There is little doubt, however, that it is following this course. Islamabad knows it cannotonventional war with India and, Iherefore,believes nuclear weapons are necessary for its survival. India's nuclear capability and Pakistan's belief that the United States is an unreliable ally are addiiional factors behind its nuclear weapon program.

Key Decisionmakers

President Zia is the ultimate formulator of Pakistan's nuclear policy. He probably consultsmall circle of trusted advisers before making key decisions, These advisers appear to include the Prime Minister, key generals, and scientists. We believe Zia is fully commitied to the covert development of nuclearand will not alter this course!

ration

precursor organization to the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commissionthe governing board for Pakistan's nuclearformed5 soon after Pakistan's nuclear program began. The commission consistshairman and four members.

Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo mayole in general nuclear decisionmaking^

We believe the PAEC oversees most nuclearincluding weapons, power, medical, andresearch. Day-to-day activities are handledystem of directorates and divisions that report to lhe PAEC chairman. The PAEC's premier

He almost

' certainty supports

clerrcnt lo India, bul does no: appear lo be involved in nuclear weapons decisionmaking!

Munir Ahmad Khan, who has been chairman of lhe PAEC for nearlyears, is probably Zia's most imporlanl scientific adviser.]

]he has direct access to me rresiaeni ana

has more influence over decisions on nuclear research

We believe lhai Aslam Beg as Vice Uhicl ol Army Staff will, like his predecessor,ard line on Pakistan's needuclear deterrent and encourage Ziaontinue the nuclear weapons quesi I-

Ghulam Ishaq Khan, the powerful Senate Chairman and former Financelose friend of Zia and.|

plays an "intimate" role in counselingnuclear

We belies* that Munir Khan's longevity as PAEC chairman is based on performance, not favoritism.upporter nor an admirer of Zia.'

I but his unstintinguclear objectives hashis position. We believe Khan supports the acquisition of nuclear weapons because he believes Pakistan must be able to defend itself against India.

Abdul Oadeer Khan, head of the Khan Research Laboratories, is the key figure behind Pakistan's capabilitynrich uranium for use in nuclear

Mirrt Aslam Beg, Vice Chief of Army Staff, probably serves as one of Zia's closest advisers on nuclear matters.I

Electricity Produeiion

Pakistan has moreillion kW of electrical capacity,erceni of which is nuclear capacity.

""Sac/et^

Mining

Pakistan has an0 ions of uranium reserves, according to an IAEA publication, and mines sufficient uranium for use in its fuel fabrication and uranium enrichment needs.P

International Relations

We believe lhat Pakistan has achieved asufficiency in its nuclear development becauseombination of earlier assistance from Westernand an efficient clandestine procurementAll of Pakistan's nonindigenous nuclearhave been supplied by West European or North American firms, and most Pakistani scientists and technicians have trained in the United States or Western Europe- Concern in the West over Pakistan's

nuclear weapons development has greatly restricted nuclear cooperation between Islamabad and itspartners:

The United States provided Pakistan with its Only research reactor, and Pakistani officials still seem to prefer US-origin goods and technology to all other. US concerns about Islamabad's weapon activity and illicit procurement program have virtually ended cooperation.

Canada, which supplied Pakistan's only powerhas also suspended cooperation, including fuel supplies, because of Islamabad's proliferation activity.

France apparently shared US and Canadianconcerns during, and rockybetween Islamabad and Paris came to a

complete halt8 when the French reneged on an agreement toeprocessing plant at Banda Chashma. In recent >ears. however. French commercial interests have prevailed. According to

r-akisian to compensate for the canceled Chashma contract and toW power reactor without full-scope safeguards have drawninterest in Islamabad]

We believe Pakistan and China have exchangedtechnologies, which has advanced programs in both countries, and that Pakistan has periodically received general financial assistance from otherand Saudihat may have been diverted for use in iu naclcar program. Although former Prime Minister Bhutto encouraged his neighbors to believe Pakistan would share iu nuclear achievements with Muslim coreligionists, we have no evidence that he did so. Since the end of the Bhutto era, Pakistan has been more circumspect about such promises, probably because of theit has experiencedesult of Westernconcerns!

t

Arabia

Nuclear power has beenow priority in Saudi Arabia, and efforts to obtain research facilities,esearch reactor, are moving slowly. Lack of human resources and of an organi7aiionalare likely to preclude developmentull-fledged programreat deal of help from outsiders.

Organization

In the absenceational atomic energy authority, lhe board of directors of the King Abd al-Aziz Center for Science and Technologyormerly known as the Saudi Arabian National Center for Science and Technology (establishedupervises all nuclear activities. The board is chaired by the King. Other members include the Crown Prince, the Ministers of Defense and Aviation, of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, of Higherand KAACST's executive director. Research facilities at King Abd al-Aziz University in Jiddah, King Sa'ud University in Riyadh, and King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals in Dhahranmall indigenous training program.

He supports

nuclear power Out we nave seen no indication that he favors nuclear weapons development^

Electricity Production

None of Saudi Arabia's electricity is supplied by nuclear power, and. given the country's large oil and gas reserves, interest in nuclear power is minimal.

Uranium Mining

Saudi Arabia has no known uranium deposits.

Decisionmakers

As King, Fahd bin Abd al-Aziz At Sa'ud theoretically is the highest authority in all decisionmaking,nuclear matters. In practice, however, wc believe he has little personal interest in ihc development of nuclear power, relies heavily on advisers for technical advice, and plays Ihe role of pro forma executor of decisions made by KAACST's board of directors.

International Relations

Riyadh has discussed the purchase of nuclearwith France, the United Slates, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, Italy, West Germany, India, Brazil, and Taiwan. According to pressinermany's Kraftwerk Union reached agreement with Saudi Arabia to supply two research reactors. I

Executive Director Salih Abd al-Rahman is probably lhe country's leading expert on nuclear matters.!

Over the years Saudi Arabia has provided andfinancial assisunce to other Muslim countries' nuclear programs:

Egypt and Syria have received indirect funding.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has no nuclear programs other than health and science activities. Because Sriarty to the NPT. any reactor would be under IAEAeven if supplied byonsigner

Organization

The small Atomic Energy Authority (AEA),Dr. Granville Dharmawardcna. is part ofof Industries and Scientific Affairs.Center at the University ofthe Nuclear Medicine Unit at theide variety of

Decisionmakers

President Junius Richard Jaycwardcnc. whothe Defense and Energy portfolios, is theon nuclear matters. He lackshowever, and almost certainly TeliesChairman Dharmawardcna for technicalDharmawardena, who has headed thepenly supports the development ofpower program. Personally, he hasbecause of the economic burden and thehazardshcrnobyl'-like accident,to press

Uraniora Mining

6 the Department of Geological Surveysthat uranium had been found in the Udawalawa area of southern Sri Lanka. We do not know if these deposits can be exploited commercially.

International Relations

Sri Lanka has talked to India and Japan about the acquisitionesearch reactor but the effort appears stalled, r

Electricity Production

Sri Lanka has no plans touclear power plant and divert scarce resources from hydroelectric power plans.!-

Necret

Production

nuclear program is beset with financialproblems and lacks trained personnel.negotiating wiih the USSR for its firstwhich would be used mainly for trainingresearch. Damascus does nota nuclear power reactor before the end of

None ofSyria's electrical needs arc met with nuclear power but Syrian officials are discussing the purchase ofW power reactor from the Soviet Union.

Uranium Mining

Syria'sCommissionstablished0 full-time employees. It relics heavilyresources for training andower reactor have beenthe Ministry of

With help from the IAEA, Syria has conducted uranium exploration, bul commercially exploitable uranium deposits have not beenyrian nuclear official claims uranium-bearing phosphate deposits are being mined ai Khunayfis, bul mosl of this phosphate is exported lo Eastern Europe^

S

Syria's Atomic Energy Authority is interested in ining uranium extraction operations from the country's large phosphate deposits.!

Decisionmakers

Ultimate responsibility for all nuclear activitiesto President Hafi* al-Assad. lie has delegated responsibility for operationalthe purchaseowerElec-tricily Minister Kamil al-Baba.Q

Kamil al-Baba has been Minister of Electricitye is an electrical engineer by training and supports the development of nuclear power.!-

AEC Director Ibrahim Haddad,

International Relations

The Soviet Union helped Syria organire iu AEC,

|and will probably tne cnier supplier ot Syria's planned nuclear facilities. Under the terms of the Soviet-SyrianEnergy Agreementite surveys arcto be completed by the end8reactor, which will provide trainingW power reactor. Although the power reactor's completion is planned for the, Syrian Atomic Energy officialsore realistic date is the end of the century.

had been under way lomall research reactor from France, but Syria's inability to pay for the reactor in casheal to fall through-

Syrian nuclear personnel have received training inAustria. Brazil, India. Italy, Sudan.Germany, Poland, France, and lhe

^Sac^et^

Otter Countries

The remaining countries in (he Middle EastAsia have link prospect of developingnuclear capabilities in the nexi fewhave few. if my. gomnmcni or privateinvolved in nuclear research ororganisations thai ciiti art engaged insuch as research on agricultural apphcatioruenergy. Unsettled conditions in Lebanonhavended scientificthose count rift.

.Nuclear Organiiaiions

Energy Commission.

Energy Commission

Council for Scientific Research of Lebanon; Physics Department. American University of Beirut.

adiation and Isotope Center.

Institute of Scientific and Technical Research.

United ArabEngineering Institute. AI'Ayn University. I

Uranium

Mauritania and Afghanistan have some uranium deposits Phosphate deposits containing uranium are found in Jordan. Tunisia, and the disputed territory of Western Sahara, bul wc do not believe any of these deposits is rich enough to warrant exploitation.!

Slant

i

Inlernational Nuclear Treaties

Middle Eastern and South Asian countriesaried record on accepting international nuclearThese include;

on the Non-proliferation of NuclearfNPTi. This treaty is basically an agreement between nuclear weapon stales and non-nuclear weapon states in which countries with less developed nuclear abilities give up their optionevelop nuclear weapons and agree to full-scope safeguards in return for assistance in development of peaceful nuclear technology In addition, nuclear weapon sutes agree lo pursue arms control.

Arab sutes that have not signed the NPT argue that, because Israel has not signed, the treaty, in effect, permits Israel to have nuclear weapons while denying that capability lo Ihe Arabs

Ten Ban Treaty IPTBT} This Ircaly pro-hibits nuclear weapons lesls "or any other nuclear explosion" in the atmosphere, in outer space, and under water, including underground explosions thai cause radioactive debris to cross territorial limits.

Treaty on ihe Prohibition of Emplatimtnl ofWeapons ami Other Weapons of Manon the Seabed and lhe Ocean Floor and In the Subioil Thereof 'Seabed Armshis treaty basically prohibits emplacement on the ocean floor of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction. Including facilities for these weapons It cbo eeobibits assisting any suie to undertake such emplacement

Atomic Energy Agencyhe IAEA asstsu in research and development ofenergy for peaceful use* In return for this assistance states agreerogram of on-site inspections, audits, and inventory controls known collectively ashe basic purpose of ihcsc safeguards t* to deter the diversion of nuclear materials from peaceful uses to mililary purposes through risk of timely dotection.

iigned bui no*treaties onl> enter into force afterA. that II hisc-mnsc-il ofnnounced Intenikin io (ion.

l>ii lable ill

The countries in the region that do not belongIAEA have virtually no capability lotechnology and so have no reasonan obligation to pay IAEAall of the nonmemberentered into agreements with themake nuclear technology potentiallyto

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