CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE - 7 APRIL 1988

Created: 4/7/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

PMTl

DIRECTORATE OE IrfTELLIQEMCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLYpril*

weekly Situation Report la

by the'

Office ofLatin

juiaiyaiar. Tnia paper waa coordinated with the

Directorate of Operations. Commenta and

welcome and amy be directed to |

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLYpril8

Perspective) Honduras Moving Toward Accomodation with Nicaragua

Tha trace in Nicaragua Increases pressure on Honduras to end ita role in aiding tha anti-Sandlniata insurgents and to prepare for an eventual accoatmodatlon with Managua. Honduras la uneaay over the growing numbers of Nicaraguan rebels In the Las Vegas salient and Is pressuring them to return to Nicaragua. Tegucigalpa fears that the rebels' presence will attract unwelcome international attention and provoke domestic protests. Honduran officials, who have arguedilateral deal with Managua, probably view the ceaae-fire agreement es an opportunity to end support for the antl-Sandinistaa.

The Hondurans are likely to ectlvelyripartite border commisaion with El Salvador and Nicaragua at this waek'e meeting of the Central American Foreign Mlnistere and may open talksilateral treaty with the Sandinistas. Tegucigalpa viewa its border proposalast ditch measure to cope with an expected Influx of Nicaraguan refugees and angry rebels in the wake of the cease-fire accord. Honduras eleo probably calculates that the international commission will reduce the chance of Honduraa becoming embroiledorder clash with Nicaragua. However, Honduraa la holding fast to its demand that the Sandlnlataa must withdraw their World Court caee against Tegucigalpa before finalising an agreement. Moreover, the Hondurans remain skeptical of the Sandlniataa' desire to comply with the terms of the ceaae-fire agreement and are likely to proceed cautloualy inilateral deal. Nonetheless, Tegucigalpa eventually may decideommissionreaty with Managua will be neceassry to secure their borders and obtain Nicaragua's commitment to end its support for subversive groups in Rondures.

Developments This Week

Democratization

everal Nicsraqmn Journal! eta plan to request government

permleeion early this month toew

independent radio newscast

icaraguan opposition leader has been harassed bysince he organized twoearlier this year that draw over Ka has been

repeatedly questioned and threatened, and workers ontwo youths below dreft eparatemerchants wsrs arrested and

confiscated In mid-March, allegedly for sellingicense. Both were active members in an ant1-Sandlniata private sector organization.

Cease-fire/Amnesty

echnicel-level negotlstlons between Nicaragua endrebels onarch ended withagreement for five cease-fireto press. Rebel

Instructed to "agree to nothing" in the

Cirat round. Talks resumedpril to negotiatezonee and rebel resupply. Meanwhile,postponed directorate-level talks in Managuatopril, citing Sandinlsta noncompliance withagreement end the need to asttls onaccording to press. Tha

rebels' strategy ia to prolong tha Managua round and balk at anything definitive until the Sandinistas meet their own commltoente. ' I

At the urging of the Guatemalan rebels.snd an independent academic group.has agreed to lat the Nationalhold talka with the guerrilla leeders innext weak, but continues to Insist that rebelsdown their arms and accept amnesty beforenegotiations take '

Despite opposition froa tne military ror such

talks and th* lack of strong domestic pressure for dialogue, Cerezo probably hopes that approval of the low-level meeting will bolater hi* moderate image aa

Guatemala prepares to host the International Parliamentary Union meeting next week.

National Roconclliatlon Commlaalon

Representatives from Nlcaracruan antiregime laborbe Included in the four-party delegations toThe

parties will insist tne government aiscuba worxers' grievances and say they will withdraw from the dialogue if the response is unsatisfactory. I |

International Verification

A staff member of the OAS Human Rights Commission

travelled to Nicaraguato discuss guidelines

for the amnesty of ex-nationalstaff member was to meet only with

governmentofficials, but the full commission may visit later and meet with nongovernment figures.

lurgenta.

Salvadoran rebels in Nicaragua enhanced securitya Salvadoran demarche to Mansguafacilities In

Costa Rlcan Preaident Arias told the press onarch that hla recent letter to Soviet President Gorbacheversonal reply. He added that heroup of Costa Rlcan leglalators visiting Moscow this month would bring bsck an answer. I I

Costa Rlcan Foreigntold

Other Developments

Nicaragua retracted tta request for temporaryHonduras at tha International Court ofenerally reliable

In late March Maniijun off'ernd to

tnarav its suit if Tegucigalpa would immediately remove the US troops sent earlier in the month,ultilateral peacekeeping force on the border, andreaty of peace and friendahip with Nicaragua-

Mozamblcan Preaident Chlaeano visited Nicaraguapril, according to preea. | |

Arias

nopal the US will take reaponaibillty for anicaraguan resistance combatanta and their familial who are expected to seek asylum In Coats Rica.

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