CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE - 17 MARCH 1988

Created: 3/17/1988

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE8

is preparedffice of African ana papetrwaa coordinated with the Connenta and queries are

to the Chief,f

Thla weekly Situation Report

ican Analysis,irectorate of Oparationa. walcoaw and amy ba dlractad

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CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATEB

Perapactlva: Nicaraguan Robela Softening Cease-fire Stance

The insurgents appear more willing toease-fire agreement with the Sandinistas. In accepting Managua's offer to resume negotiations next Monday, they dropped their preconditionsreliminary meeting and for exclusive discussion of the agenda proposed by Cardinal Obando last month. Instsad, tha talks will begin with an open agenda and no Sandinlsta promises to discuss political issues.

Concern over their deteriorating battlefield position end uncertain US and Honduran support could prompt the rebels to make additional concessions at tha bargaining table. They may now settle for vague Sandinlsta assurances that political Issues will be discussedater date. They also may be prepared to drop their earlier proposalease-fire in place. Although they would Btill be reluctant to accept the Sandinlsta demand to assemble in dsslgnatsd cease-fire zones, they would be more likely to consider it if they believed it necessary to savs lives. Similarly, the insurgents may now be willing to agree to limit any new aid to nonmilitary supplies funneledhird perty such as the Red Cross. Their worsening finances and inability to feed their families probably are powerful pressures to give in on this point.

The Sandinistas realize they are going into the talks inposition and are unlikely to make major concessionsown. Thsy probably expect that the rebels aremilitary relief and the opportunity to obtainprobably believes the rebels will give Inumberto avoid prolonging the talks and to obtain at leasttruce. On the battlefield, the Sandinistaspressure on rebel headquarters across the borderIn order toajor blow to the insurgency andtha rebels' bargaining position. Managua probablyavoid the impression of ruthlessnese, however, to preventaid and to deter international condemnation.

pemgcratljatlon

icaraguan peasant was killed and others injured when

the security services tried to prevent them from

proceedingabor domonatrationarchl

Nicaraguan opposition parties and Independentare planning n. demonstration in Maaaya on | Another event la

planneday In Managua^ Meanwhile,arch in Managua scheduled forarch waa canceled after the police rejected the proposed route. The organizers feared tha alternate routea auggested by the police would leave them open to attacks by proregime mobs,

L

The Salvadoran Chriatlan Democratic Party plana to uae unmarked government vehlclea to transport voters to the polls if the guerrlllaaransportation

party win announce that tha vehicles are to be used for all votera but does not intend to make them available to other political groups.

a and

Guatemalan President Cerezo]

Jwould contact Co.eta Blcan President Ari

Salvadoran Presidsnt Duarte totrategy to get the Sandlnlataa to live up to their peace commitmenta and negotiate political Issues in cease-fire talka. Nevertheleaa, Cerezo haa no clear idea of how to proceed, and his preliminary ldeaa concern creating conditiona for free electionsentral American Parliament.

Ceaaa-rire/Amneatv

icaraguan ceaae-fire talka will bearch in the Nicaraguan border town of Sapoa, according to preaa. The agenda ia open, and Cardinal Obando and the Secretary General of the OAS will observe the proceedlnga. Adolfo Calero and Humberto Ortega will head the negotiating teama. Daniel Ortega said he expects that the cutoff of US funding and Sandlnlata military pressure will force the rebels to be more accommodating in the talka.

icaraguan Indian laadera authorized Brooklyn Rivera to puraue cease-fire talka with Managua, according to preaa. The decision waa made at an assembly meetingebruaryonduran border town. Meanwhile, Rivera haa agreed to have Indian rebela support Sandlnlata troops guarding tha Atlantic coaat from attacks by the

Insurgent group

report

I claims mere are fewerin Nicaraguaajority of those areGuardsmen.

1disputes the findings, and the

says

the survey does not include state securltyhcaxTrrxxas where the majority of political prisoners are believed held.

The Salvadoran rebels announcedarch that they will propose new talks with the government in early April. The rebel announcementeeting with Archbishopamas, who, according to the Insurgents, believes there will be opportunities for talks following thearch elections. President Duarte, however, already has rejected the rebel proposal.

Documents captured by the Salvadoran military lastthe rebels reject any prospect ofThe

documents, whicn were oeing sent from one senior rebel commander to another, state that peace talks areolitical tactic to weaken the government while the rebels intensify the military struggle.

Guatsmalan Archbishop Penados announcedarch that he would travel to Mexico this week to meet with Guatemalan guerrilla leadera about the possibility of Church mediation in renewed talks with the government.

| Penados1 a

emarxa cameurprise, because theyeeting with government and military officiala and statementa by President Cerezo that Church mediation was not required unless the rebels lay down their arms. Onarch, the Archbishop told the press he was cancelling his plans so as not to complicate President Cerezo's trip to Mexico next week.

National Reconciliation

The Nicaraguan Government declined toeeting of tha National Reconciliation Commission onarch,

I Cardinal Obando said

C

|that the Sandinistas are lookingay to dTQiamselves of the commission. The government haa agreed to attend the next session, scheduled forarch. Meanwhile, an opposition leader believes the national dialogue should resume without requiring the Sandinistas first to agree to constitutional reforms.

3

- inrariFT

STA-Wi*.

Ald to Insurgents

Nicaraguan Interior Minister Tomaa Borge said in mid-February that the Sandinistas are working behind the scenes to strengthen relations with leftist movements in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras]

added tnas Nicaragua

will provide direct military support to revolutionary movements in El Salvador and Guatemala and will look for ways to assist insurgents In Colombia and Peru as well. Sorge said that Managua does not want ita activities exposed so ss to leave open the option of working under the peace plan.

Mexican Foreign Minister Sepulveda told a * that the rebels could

continue their operations in Mexico indefinitely,

A few days earlier, Sepulveda had publiclyalvadoran government charge that Mexico allowed

the insurgents to engage in activities aimed at

undermining the Duarte government.

Sepulveda had

he will continue to accuse El Salvador of human

Eight Hondurana from ssveral radical leftist groups were scheduled to travel to Nicaragua in late February for three months of ideological and military training.

Other Developmente

osta Rlcan president Arias told Honarch

that he believes the Sandiniatas naveconcession In agreeing to direct high-level cease-fire talks, in contrast to rebel Intransigence. In Arlaa's opinion, the insurgents should shiftilitaryolitical struggle and must make conceaalons in the talka. Including deferring discussion of political issues. Arias said ha will not denounce Sandinlsta noncompliance with the peace accordease-fire ie reached, since it le futile to continue pressuring Managua so long aa It haa the war as an excuse.

Costa Rjcan Presidentarch

that Spanish Prime Minister Gonzalez has accepted his invitation to visit San Jose and is expected onarch.

Canadian Foreign Minister Clark will meet with Contadora counterparta--exceptMontrealarch,"

|the current meeting is

tne latesteries Clark has held with thoat the UN. At the last meeting in September,countries had asked for consultationsWestern economic summit.

5

HONDURAN AND NICARAGUA VERIFICATION PROPOSALS

The Central American Foreign Mlniatara will meet in Guatemalaarch in their capacity aa Executive Commiaaion under the peace accord. At their laat meeting in San Salvador In mid-February, they agreed to decide which countries and International organizations ahould provide technical aid for verification of peace commltmenta and to atudy propoaala made by Honduras and Nicaragua.

The Honduran Proposal

Backgrounds In February, Konduraa renewed aat the OAS General Aaaambly In AtTegucigalpa hoped to stakeoaition independentand to defuse the Impression that ita oppositionverification was an obatacle to the peaceForeign Miniatar Lopes recently

that resurrecting the plan waa intended to keep it anve in case of the collapse of tha Nicaraguan inaurgencyove to reimpose extra-regional countrlee in verification. He maintalna that the plan is an all-or-nothing proposal which will require montha to negotiate.

on Nicaragua to withdraw troops from the border and end violations of Honduran territory; aaka Managua toroad and unconditional amnaaty.

onduras and Nicaragua, aa well aa Honduras and El Salvador, should aimultaneoualy establish security commissions to monitor the borders and diaarm any guerrillas. [Tegucigalpa haa not given blanket permission for lnapectlona of military bases.]

Both sets of countriea will eatabllah non-military mechaniama to operate refugee and repatriation centara.

Honduras will conaidar removing the US military preaence if Nicaragua will agree to remove Soviet bloc advisers-subject toaccept mutually agreed arme levels.

Honduras agrees to host US-Nlcaraguan talka.

Nicaragua's Proposals

Background: Preaident Ortega stated onanuary that Nicaragua did not agree with the decision of the Central American summit to remove the Contadora countries from verification. In

lata January, Nicaragua unilaterally invited the Contadora countries to visit Managua to certify Nicaraguan compliance with the summit agreement- Ortega asked Spain, Italy, Norway, and Sweden to participateew verification commission during hii trip to those countries at the end of January. | |

Onebruary, Nicaragua proposedew body include all those it had previously invited, as well as Canada, and West Germany.

No details given on organization of tho body; an earlior verificationto tha International Verification Commission infor separate committeea for political and security verification; the political commissions would consult reports of the National Reconciliation Commissions, but would not make its own investigations.

During cease-fire talks with tha anti-Sandinista rebels, Nicaragua proposed that an international commission composed of the Contadora countriesumber of International political parties guarantee political rights; the Sandiniataa apparently do not intend to discuss this unilateral plan with tha Foreign Ministers.

The Sandinistas also probably will noterification plan agreed to in separate talka with Miskito Indian rebel Brooklyn Rivera; Canada, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Finland, Holland, Norway, and Switzerland were invited to be witnessesease-fire agreement and to lend material support to development on the Atlantic coast.

srr-bft

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