CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE - 25 FEBRUARY 1988

Created: 2/25/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE6

juHncnrnulyeia. xnia paper

Thie weekly Situation Report la prepared by the|

* Office of African and Latin coordinated with the Directorate of Operatlona. Coavnonts and guerlea ara

inongT .

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLYS

Perspective: Foreign Ministers Discuss Verification

The democracies reaffirmed their control of the verification process at the Central American Foreign Ministers meeting in San Salvador last week by turning back Sandinlsta proposals to relnvolva the Contadora countries. The Ministers agreed to defer decisions on which countries or international organizations would be chosen to give technical aid on verification until their next meeting in mid-March. The National Reconciliation Commissions were directed to prepare reports verifying compliance with commitments to democratization and national dialogue.

Honduran Foreign Minister Lopez told |

| that he was pleaaad with tha

had gained time for Tegucigalpa on the Lopez noted, for example, that NicaraguanD'Escoto had warmly endorsed the Honduranto the OAS last November to createand Nicaragua-El Sslvador borderbelieves that it wouldinimum of six monthsthe idea.

The democracies probably will bs able to defuse anticipated Nicaraguan efforts at Hamburg to line up support for the involvement of West European and Contadora countries in verification, citing the Central American agreement to defer action uptjl the next Foreign Ministers meeting. Nevertheless,

separate, ministerial level fcc-uontadora meeting 1

scheduled after the Hamburg meeting which will give Sandinlsta allies another forum toestern European role in verification. [

The Central American Foreign Ministers also agreed to hold new talka on securityand troop levels, foreign military advisers,arch. The democracies have made no progress inoint strategy, however, and they may find It difficult to counter any new Nicaraguan Initiatives.

2

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Developments Thin Wbbx

Peraocra

A Nicaraguan diplomat recently admitted thatOrtega announced at the JanuarySan Jose were only Intended to sway thevote on rebel aid, and the regime,with consolidating conjxol,

Church workers ssia tnat the

The official Sandinlsta party newspaper charged La Prensa of conspiring with the US Embassy in Managua to subvert the new monetary law.

Nlcaraeroan security forces Interrogated Catholic lay workers in Estell Depsrtment, accualng then of collaborating vith the Insurgents

anainistas aiso were searching private homes at night looking for youth to enlist in the military.

Nicaraguan Cardinal Obando, citing distrust between the Sandinistas and the lnaurgents, suspendednegotiations lest Friday when the government failed to endorse his proposal. Tha following day, however, President Ortega said the regime had not rejected the Cardinal's proposal. Both sides say they are willing to renew talks,ember of the rebel negotiating team said the insurgents want the tslks to continue in Managua.

National Reconciliation

Onebruary, Nicaraguan Cardinal Obando agreed toequest by representatives from the alliance ofpposition parties to reconvene the National Reconciliation Commission, even though ha considers the Commission's task completed,

| The parties slso

uDanao roediator to halp restart the national dialogue. The Cardinal cautioned that ha could notediator without the approval of both the government and opposition parties.

International Vgcif

Nicaragua, recently aaked Canada to aand a

vr^th^V'T t0 cartlfycompliance

with the Central American peace plan,

The Canadians requested more Iii eeufuary, Preaident Ortega publicly proposed that Canada, Spain, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Contadora and support group countries, and the UN and OASew verification commission to certify each Central American country'a compliance with the peace accord. 1

Aid to Insurgenta

Nothing to report.

Two independent Nicaraguan radio atationa have been forced to go off the air temporarily because of

electric power surges and blackoute,

1 La Prensa la forced ro usegenerators up to eightay. With the new monetary reform, the papera also must meet mandatory salary lncreaaea for the ataffO percent rlae in the price of newaprint. [ |

A Nicaraguan opposition party lsader told US Embaesy officials that the Sandinistas' offer of cars and land to certain members of the alliance ofpposition partlaa were aimed at undermining theragile unity.

NICARAGUAN CEASE-FIRE AND VERIFICATION PROPOSALS

Fundamental dlffarencaa over political iaauea hava impeded caaaa-fira negotiations between the Sandlniataa and the Nicaraguan rebels alnce they began in December. The insurgsnts are demanding politicel reforms before they agree to lay down their weapons, while the Sandinistas Insist that the war muat end before rebels join the political process.

eptember7

Niceragua presents detailed proposal for creation of political and security committees at the meeting in Managua of the International Verification Commission sst up by the7 peace accord.

eptember7

The Nicaraguan governmentroop pullback from certain zones to permit cease-fires with local guerrille commandera. Within three weeks, the government sets upocal and regional peace commltteee in an effort to induce the guerrillas to accept amneaty. Meanwhile, the Sandinistas maintain their opposition to meeting with tha insurgent lesdershlp.

57

On the day of the deadline for complying with the democratization and cease-fire provisions of the peace agreement. President Ortega announces he will agree to Indirect cease-fire talks with the rebels through an Intermediary.

7

Nicaragua announcesoint cease-fire plan. The Sandinistas offer to suspend offensive operstlons for two weeks to permit the insurgents to aasembla In three zonesecember. The rebels, in turn, would surrender their arms8 upon International verification of government compliance with peace commitments. Tha insurgents would bs permitted humanitarian aid if delivered by an international agency.

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7

Tho anti-Sandlnlsta insurgentsease-fireecember toanuary. At the outaet of thethe government would be required to lift the state of emergency,ull amnesty, take measures to democratise, and dia'solvs Sandinists neighborhood committees and paramilitary aecurity groups. The insurgents propose Cardinal Obando as mediator.

7

After conducting separate talks with the government and insurgents in Santo Domingo, Cardinal Obando calls for two short cease-fires toeligious holiday and Christmas. He also calla for the government to make democratic reforme. The Insurgents sccspt Obando's proposal in principle, but the Sandinistas say all US and Honduran aid to the rebels muat cease before they would eccept.

7

A second round of indirect talks in Santo Domingo is suspended when the insurgents refuse the Sandinlsta demand that the rebels meet with the government's foreign advlaera. The guerrillas agree to do eo only If government representativea alao participated. Obando publicly endorses direct talks bsfore tho meeting.

7

Both sideehriatmas truce end eccuse the other of violating it.

B

President Ortega announces at the concluaion of the Central American summit in San Jose that he will immediately lift the state of emergency and conduct direct talks with the insurgents. ull amnaaty would be implemented after conclusionease-fire agreement.

8

Nicaragua publicizes diplomatic note to the eight Contedora countries proposing that Contadora repreaentatlves visit Managua onanuary to verify atepa taken to comply with the summit agreement. Minister of Education Csrdensl

UNCLASSIFIED

begins trip to all Contadora capitals to deliverfrom President

8

President Ortega visits Spain, Italy, Norway, and Sweden to requeet their participation In verification of Nicaraguan compliance with peace comroitmenta.

8

The Nicaraguan Government and rebel Miskito Indian leader Brooklyn Riveraommunique in Nicaragua which they invite Canada, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Finland, Holland, Norway, and Switzerland to bo witnesses to aagreement and to lend moral and material support to development on tho Atlantic Coast.

8

At the firat round of direct talks between the Sandinistas and rebels in San Jose, the inaurgente endorse the Nicaraguan Internal opposition's proposal foronstitutional amendments and propose that the opposition participate in the talks. Tho rebels also propose that the negotiations be concluded withinays, during which time both sides would not acquire additional militaryew Sandinista plan would permit the insurgents to keep their armshort period until international verification of Nicaraguan compliance. It also proposes creation of an additional verificationof the Contsdora countries and international politicalguarantee political righta to insurgents accepting amnesty.

8

Cardinal Obando suspends negotiations whsn the government negotiating team does not immediately endorse hi cease-fire proposal. The Cardinal proposes that the governmenteneral amnesty, allow full freedom of expression, and reconaider forced military conscription in exchangeday truce. Rebel negotiators accept the proposal in principle. Preaident Ortega tacitly endorses ths plan, although he says that the Sandinistas would only grant amnesty and lower recruitment levels after awas implemented. Both sides say they are willing to reconvene at any time.

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