Created: 2/11/1988

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weakly Situation Report lo prepared by the I

I Of flea of African ana Americanpaper waa coordinated with tha Directorate of Operations. Commenta and guarlea ara

welcome and aay bo directed to the chief

I ALA, on I I


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The leedsrs of tho Centrsl Aurlcan democracies look on tho US Congressional vote a* an opportunity to preaa the Sandlnlataa to comply with the peace accord, but thay appear to be having difficulty inesponse. | "

Costa Rlcan President Arias waa tha most enthusiastic in reacting to the aid vote and made tha most axtensive public comments. Arias criticised Nicsraguan Preaident Ortega's hard-line response, saying the Sandinistas now have no excuaea forease-fire, full amneaty, and democratic reforms, including separation of the Sandlniata Party from the Amy. Arise called on the Soviet Union and Cuba to end their aid to the Salvadoran and Guatemalan inaurgents and for elimination of Soviet military deliverlee to Managua. In our view, his remarks suggest he may carry through on reported plans to visit Castro. Ariaa repeated his call for US-Nicsrsgusn bilateral


Salvadoran President Ouarte and Honduran Preaident Duarte were

combative about taking on the Sandinistas in thalr

statementslthough each appears deeply concerned

about the future of his country's relationship with the US. Dusrte snnounced that the Sandinistas have no Justification for falling to comply with the peace plan. Both presidents believe that Arias and Congreeaional opponents of sidpecial burden for pressuring Nicaragua for democratization, but thay agreed to work with_thalr Central American counterparts toward that purpose. f

A Guatemalan communique on the US vote said the decision was a

"serious contribution to peace."

was urging West European governments sndintensityManagua and that he had attempted to contact Ortegarepeated his belief that the the internal Nlcaraguanbe strengthened.

toomplete amnestyocus for their pressure. Arias told the press that he would seek to apply "moral, diplomatic, economic, and political pressure" on Managua to put democratic reforms into effect, but he has not been explicit about seeking possible multilateral sanctions.

Developments This week


icaraguan union members marched in an antigovernment march in Managua last Sunday, according to press reports. The demonstration was sponsoredoalition of four labor groups.


icaraguan rebels and Catholic Church mediators have requested that cease-fire negotiations, scheduled forebruary in Guatemala, be delayed until Cardinal Obando returns from Europe, according to press reports. Obando.suggested that the talks be rescheduled for IS toebruary.

icaraguan President Ortega denounced the insurgents for

postponing the talks and urged them to accept an immediate He said the only humanitarian aid permitted under the peace plan would have to contribute to the relocation of rebels who laid down their arms. The Nicaraguan cease-fire negotiating team requested an immediate meeting with the rebels to set the agenda for future talks. [

Nicaraguaday cease-fire with Indian rebel leader Brooklyn Rivera last week, although three other Indian leaders denounced the agreement and vowed to continue fighting. (U)

Salvadoran insurgents have proposed that peace talks resume onebruary. Government officials have indicated that the administration will not respond officially to the proposal and said renewed negotiations are unlikely until after the national elections onarch. I |

National Reconciliation

An alliance oficaraoruan opposition parties demanded last week that President Ortega endorse theirroposed constitutional reforms before they would rejoin the national dialogue. Only one party attended last week's session to discusseforms proposed by the government. The alliance dropped


plana toew constitution following tha US Congressional vota tn matt la-thal^ aid to tha rebels,

The praaidant ofNational Reconciliation Commission criticizad tharogress on tha amnaaty, cease-fire, and rafugaa provisions of tha peace plan. Ha asked Cerezo to redefine the commission'a role in verification, P"

International Verification

1 indicate tha Central American democracies irianc

agree-on Tina inrportance of maintaining control over verification and limiting extra-regional supportechnical role. Nevertheless, they have differing views on tha advisability of dlscuaalng verification at tha Central American Foreign Minister'u meeting in San Salvador onebruary. Tegucigalpa firmly oppoaea any consideration of the issue.


lcaraouan refugees, who have lived in Honduras for several voiro. .entered UNHCR camps in recent weeks.


Jindicatee tha Konduran inceiisirying ez'xorca co locare and detain Illegal aliens living along the border with Nicaragua.

Aid to Insurgents

Salvadoran Insurgent leaders mat^in Nicaragua in add-January

ralatlona with foreign government! continue to oa hand Iprimarily from Managua,


ebruary, Quateraslaommunique praising thedecision to end military aid to the Nlcaraguana boost to President Cerezo'a policy of active neutralityhla efforta toiplomatic solution to tho

Qther Developments

Nlcaraonjan rebel leaders vowed to continue fighting following the US Congressional vote denying them further lethal aid. Insurgent military chief Bermudez said, however, that the guerrlllaa will have to reduce the level of activity to conaerve ammunition, according to press reports.

lcaraguan citizens burned two government Jeeps and hurled atones at tha police atation in Masaya last Monday to protest forced military recruitment, according to press reports. Demonstrators battled withandlniata supporters who hadrogovernment march. Police arrested several local oppoaltlon party leadera. Ant1government demonatrationa continued on Tuesday. Tha Interior Ministry directed additional security forces to theiles southeast of Managua--to prevent further rioting.

Nicaraguan Praaidont Ortega haa warned the populace that tha war would continue despite the US Congressional vote to and rebel aid. Sandlniata officiala have renewed calls for bilataral negotiatione with the United States, | |

Nicaraguan. insurgent leader Alfonso Robalo says he will remain a

shadow director" following hla announced withdrawal from the insurgent Directorateebruary. Robelo said he stepped down after Costa Rlcan President Arias told rebel leadera they could remain In Coata Rica only if they renounced armed struggle.

Six Nicaracruan civilians were killed in Wlwili last weekomb explodedrogovernment demonstration, according to tha Defence Ministry. Sandlniata officiala have blamed the rebels, f |

Cuba agreed last weak to provide Nicaragua with moreillion in economic aid

but did not reveal how- wnn iv win provide.

Foreign Minister Sepulveda hopes toontadora summit to assert the group's Influence in the peace process

despite the decision of the Central American

dismiss the International Verification Commission,

We believe President da ia nadrla

-win. overrule tne zaea, ndwever, because both ha snd thepraaldantlal nominoe appear ready to makamatters their highest priority. I

American Vice Presidents, Foreign Ministara, and Ministers of Economy signed an economic agreement last weekeeting in Guatemala City. The accord providaa for joint aid for refugees, food, and energy, aa well as cooperation on external debt. The signatories aakad International donors, especially tha BCC, to0 million.illion for the regional parliament, j


The following demanda were originally presented to7 by an alliance ofpposition parties. Tharebels have subsequently endorsed the reforms.

| opposition leaders continue to refine their demands

and rray wlirainate several to help facilitate talks with thr gire.F)


Prohibit Prealdentlal reelection.

Prohibit military personnel from voting and serving In elected office.

Change the alactoral system.

Make Judlclsl branch independent. Clarify private property rlghta. Specify functions of President. Eliminate psrtisan character of Amy. Reestablish university autonomy. Reestablish municipal autonomy.

Exempt conscientious objectors from militsry service.

Clearly differentiate among the Army, the ruling party, and tha state.

Clearly define immunity.

uman rlghta prosecutor.

Llkalv Sandlniata Reaoonse

May agree to limit the number of aucceaeive terms.

Unlikely to accept.

Have agreed to aat date for local electiona and may agree to minor procedural modifications.

Rave agreed to dlacuss issue with the opposition.

Unlikely to give privateroader role.

Unlikely to reduce powers of the Presidency.

Highly unlikely to disengage ruling party from the military.

Have agreed to diecuaa issue in national dialogue.

Have agreed to discuss issue in nationsl dielogue but unlikely to surrender central government authority.

Unlikely to accept.

Highly unlikely to limit party influence in Army end government.

May agree to vague definition.

Have greed to discuss lsaus in

the National Dialogue.

onstitutionalagreed to diacuaa Issue in


Eliminate proamble ofto accept.

Constitution, which sanctifies the revolution and exalts the ruling party.

End banishment from Nicaragua aaaccept,

crlmlnel penalty.

Prohibit reletivee of the President May eccept. and Vice-Preaident from aucceeding each other.

Original document.

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