PERSIAN GULF: SITUATION REPORT -- THE MISSILE WAR

Created: 3/9/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Top Secret

GULF:

Report The Missile War

Iraq iauncnod at least live missiles Irom three separate locations yesterday at Tehran, Qom. and probably Esfanan. Iran launched one missile Ibis morning Irom western Iran toward Baghdad and at least one missile yesterday from Ihe Maragbeh area toward Mosul. Bagndad has now fired at least SO missiles;

Iranian Assembly Speaker Rafsanjani announced in an address on Monday that an examination ot unexploded Scuds shows that Iraq had reduced the warhead weight0 kMograms) and increased the fuel capacity In order lo reach Tehran. He claimed the Iraqis had probably received technical assistance Irom the US or Franco in making these modifications. Rafsanjanj stressed thai Iran's response would be made "on Ihe war fronts "I

Comment: The expansion ol the missile war to the cities of Mosul and Esfahan and Raisanjani's comments point nol onlyontinuation of the current missile exchange bul also to increasedltsry pressure against Iraq on the ground. Tehran may be attempting lo hit an Iraqi missile factory under construction near Mosul. I

Tr-is is tiwfust even partially successful Iraqi ship attack sinceeDruary. despite almost daily attempts, and Tehran wilt almoM certainty respond in kind. Iraq may be planning to use Ihe, which only deliver free-fall bombs, lo avoid Iranian air defenses wniie attacking large, stationary targets such as Khaik

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Jaai Beare*

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