Created: 4/5/1988

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Special Analyati

Chemical Warfare

Pecighting In northaaitarnhai undartcataa (Ae regular recurring use ot chemfcaf weapons fa Ihe Iran-Iraq1hat euci actrVftr wfir conrUire to Mcreese. CAewifce/ ariacaa on efiAer country* major c'l/es areer currant cfrcema tsncea, awl Iherowing that entailer population contort might oa arracked witt chemical weapons, ll aucA enecka felled to eroft* Intarnatlontl aanctloni, Iha chance or chamlcal itrlkaa an latgtr clllaa woufd fnereeas Hgnltlcantly.

The Iraqi* have Ihe largest ssocxptf* of crayrniceihe .eg on. mce-ding mustard and nerve agerrs mat can be deavered by

Battlefield Uee Increasing

j Tclvan apparently Do; ove chemical weapons are tactically useful and effective. The Increasing availability of chemical munitions end experience In their use ire likely lo encourage both sides ton*cais more frequently andider scale.

Prospeclehamlcal War ol Iha Citiss

Neither side is likely tonemies! war of the cltlea In tie near term. There la no evidence thai atter Iran or irao has developed cfemiceJ warheads foriseres txi tnai pcssitJiMycannoi be rued out Baghdad's success in deveioor^ cherrcai bombs and

Top Sacral

artUery shells Suggests l! couldrudearheadcuds, and Tehran might have obtainedssistance In procucig chen ca! wa'head* ic lis surraw-lc-surtace missiles. Each sido ha^^apabilily lo conduct chemical airsinftes against major

A etrategtc breakthrough by ban in the ground war woutf b* the scenario most likely to drive Iraq to chemical attacks on Iran's major cities. Such attacks might provoke Iranetaliatenae against Bast-dad or Karkuk. bul Tehran probably would retrain from doing sofor widespread intematip!.a1 condemnation of ana possible sanctions against,'

imQ probablynemica; weaponsattleajor Iraqi Criy such a* Al Basrah or Aa Sulaymartyah a" Baghdad behaved Iranianare on ihe verge of setting cor vcts were evacuated or fled,bers cl civ* ar* ocv'd become victims of enemies* agents.B

In the near term, civ'lan chemical casualtieseeesult of the gradual increase in Ihecy end rrtensHy ol chemical attacksclou to map' bcttkn or military taruat-

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