YUGOSLAVIA: TESTING THE CHANCES OF A MILITARY COUP (DELETED)

Created: 1/15/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Yugoslavia: Testingilitary Con

complaints by ihe Yugoslav militaryCivilian Leadership's inability le resolvei serioui problem! hive suggested toihe possibilityiliuiiy coup. Theinstance came lail fall when Dcfenaemall publicly lambasted the leadership forof weaknesses

e fudge thai Yugoslavi* doea not now face this danger. Nevertheless, there are er^ghaaJflpBlt^ici'.cirs to

-snake tba procpect plausible at tome Titer dale should cemdiuont seriously deteriorate. Moreover,eaders in the coming months teeci^kely Io become even more politically outpokenH

Factors Working for M

.-Suvlaregister* higu

oa teveiay leebcatort that sometime* haveilitary Ukoover, One factor Is growing lentioni among ethnicod various sources indicate tbe military is particularly CBOcasTncd aboutetween Serbs and AJbsnians In Kosovo Province.Although the raDftary does not want to become

involved Itself, it has issuedate menu urging ofljciab to take action to prevent narea! Tbe 'uvemrticnt, probably retponding in part Io military coavcernspecial police unit into Kosovoctober, bul teegjona are likely to sharpen once the shock ol the deploymentoff.m|

The rcajane's inability to address serious adng-ierru

aconomk problem itfactor that could

(venlaally spur military Intervention Iheovcriunent in November imposed ccntroversial new price control) aod other austerity measures to curb triple-digit inflation. Theowever, probably will be ineffective in improvingfo!rr.ar.ee o> helping Belgrade oope with iU large foreign debt. Public confidence over lime in the government it likely to ebb further, and discontent almost certainty will lead to more strikes and work slowdowni ihat could provoke open defiance of federal

law by tome regions The military couldncreasingly disci on tied, especially if Strikes threaten defense industries or. less likely, If trooptneed to be called iaonfront violent. J| mm*

The military's self-perception at guardian of the federationhird potential Indicator of intervention -especially if military leaders startelieve that crriliaa incompetence is aodef mining the Army's ability lo fulfill its million. The military probably was angeredudget cutercent latt year andgovernment attempts to control its large revenues from amiurther spillover of ethnic tensions amongtuck ai thai caused by the highly publiciied slaying of ethnic Slav totdtcn last September by an, could prompt heightened military concern

Factor*

nolliitcryo i.

itory ol raclKituiriiiii or coup aiiemph.alreadyegitimate say in ihe political system and eieecises thit Ihrougb iU representation in top Communist Party bodies. Succession procedure* in most leadership bodies are well-defined, aad chances are reanoteonstitutional crisis drawing in the military even If the Mikulie government faUt InQprccedenled vote of no-con fiderice. Duugjeements between military aad etrilaa leaden to far have centered over implementation rather than policy. .

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Original document.

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