POLICY TOWARD SEOUL AFTER KAL BOMBING

Created: 2/2/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Special Analytia

NCfltMToward SeoulAL

NortAabotageouth KoreannNorth-South talk, symptomatic

During the pasthe North has repeatedly proposed oUatoQus with Seoulplanning end Implementing terrc-lst actsTn^F" proposed talks with the US and South Korea wtthln days ol lh, bomb attach that HMouth Korean otnclars In Rttngoon Bu.m. Eacr, new act ot violence raises lhe question ot whether the North haa abandoned lhe peaceful side oluel approach- The evidence suggests tho answer Is no .mmm

Shortly after Ihe airliner Incident last November, P'yongyang announced II had unilaterally reduced Its mlBUry forcesnd reiteraled II. call .or disarmament talks. President Kim ll-song. in his Newddresa. reaffirmed Interest In talks wllh ihe SouthltM9rmltoariety ol topics, ndudlng the Olympic, and milttery Issues. Two weeks late, the North tormally presented Its proposal to the South.

Jr?opp#ddemand* lhat the USlWary talus end mat the US-South Korean TeamSovrt exercise be canceled before the talks ccvW open

These otters soonest Pyongyang wtt continue its ettoris ol rhe pasi yew to portray Itself at the side more flexible and more Interested In reducing tensions. II has few alternatives. The peaceful tactic has not Pmtaced the results the North warts-direct official talks with the US ano talks with ihe South on the North's terms. Violence, however, risks the disapproval ol the North's major allies. China and the USSR and precludes improved political and economic refatfons wllh the rvesi mmm

While the North does noi appear ready lo abandon the peaceful aloe of its policy, the extent to which ft wlH pursue Ihe violent track remains lhe Issue. The surviving suspect In Ihe KAL bombing claims the Incident was aimed at disrupting the Summer Olympics The action came too early to affect the Games directly and the Olympicsempting target for P-

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