MIDDLE EAST BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 20 APRIL 1988.

Created: 4/20/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECTl RIDDLE EAST FROMi PAS. CONTENTS

I. PERSIAN GULF: SITUATION REPORT 2. IRAN-IRAQi THE RECAPTURE OF AL FAW

i. INTERNATIONAL: OIL MARKETS REMAIN.

IRANIAN OEFENSIVE. ANOTHER TANKER

ESS CONFRONTATIONAL ANO MORE

RANIAN SPEEDBOATS ATTACKED SSOCIATED WITH

i. persian gui': situation report iranian responses- hori suboueo

Approved for

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at ecHERc

ON MOHOAY FOR NOW. continuing the southc statu at

IN

FOB NOW TO

(EH COWED 'iv AND OIL PIATFORHS IN OPPORTUNITIES TO ST US OILWORKCRS.

LESS IIULT

r IRAN'S NAVY ACM ITTCD PUBLICLY YCSTCRQAf THAT AH IRANIAN Ml SSI If PATROL BOAT HAS SUNK. TWO FRIGATES OAMACEO, AND ANP NO" BE" cjllflEO ON HONOAY.

HAN "At in- IT HiV TO ATTACK VULNERABLE MRCHAW RN Wir. TIHRAN MAY KIEP LOOKING FOR THE *rw PLATFORMS OPERA'COlTART rOMCCS WILLTHEKSCLVTS BUTONfROMTATI ON WITH US FORC1S.

IN TNE GULF AHD IRAQ'S ASSAULT ONBAGHDADEAT AND DESTROY THE CLAIMS US HELICOPTERSIPATIO IN THC KUWAIT Of ALLOWING IRAQ TO USE SUB IYAN IS ASSSPEAKER SUGGESTED YES

IRANIAN POLITICAL REACTION

IRANIAN LEADERS ARE CALLING THE US ATTACK ON IRANIAN INTERESTS

I

I COORDINATED EFFORT TO SIAMIC REPUBLIC. TEnRAN IRAQI ATTACK ANDTAGING AREA. CROAT THAT THE SOVIETSHAT INC THIY CAVE IRAQ.

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HAS WARNED THAT THE US 'ENTRY INTONU!Ll BitlNC AN IRANIAN RISPEIMSt THAT "WILL SEVER TNE ROOTS US fJISTiNCE IN TNE REGION. IRANIAN KAOEAS NAVE UACITlCM TO CONTINUE THE WAR ANO THWART IRAN'S

IRANIAN LCAQERS ARC ON THE DEFENSIVE AND PROBABLY HOPE THAT PORTRAYING IRAN'S RECENT SETBACKSS-LED CONSPIRACY WILL HELPOPULAR ANCER AWAY FRO" THC CLCRICA'. REGIME. THE APPCARANCC OF COORDINATION BETWEEN EXTERNAL ENEMIES IS LIKELY TO STRINGTHIN HARDLINERS IH TEHRAN WHO WILL ARGUE THAT IRAN MUST ULTIMATELY RESPONC AGGRESSIVfLY IH THE FACIOF SETBACKS OR RISK BEIHC PERCEIVE? AS WEAK ANO VUlBV

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SECRET

CTifiZ APR S8

WEST EUROPEAN REACTIONS

ITO CONDEMN TNE MINING WITHOUTININCHEAKER LINE. IM SEPARATE STATEK Saio THE IRAN HAD INVITED US RETALIATION. SPAIU CONOEMHEC.THE NC. ANCALLEDN

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THE WEST EUROPEANS CONTINUI TO CRITICIZE IRAN'S RENEWED NININC Of THE PERSIAN CUU BJT IRE DIVIDED OVER THE EXTENT OF SUPPORT FOR THE US RESPONSE. THE WESTERNNION YESTERDAY CA1LE0 FORMTI END TO ALL NININC ANC OTNER ACTS AGAINST INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING. WITHOUTC .IflAfl, ANO NOJEJ? SUCH fllNING ItLF-D'fJNSl Nf AS

1ST

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FNIM:-. ITALIAN NAVAL FORCES HAVEN0

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""IUM. *^

UNLIKE THE STATEMENTS OFOBfJkft

AND DENMARK OH MONDAY. THE MUTED SUPPORT FOR US ACT IA FEAR THAT THE ESCALATION OF FIGHTING WILL DRAG THE INTO THE CONFLICT EVEN FURTHER. HAVING (AILED TO TAKEPOSITION ON TNE US RESPONSE TO IRAN'S HIKtlAYINC

"INCHT0TATENEWT ON THE

INCIOESTS

Of MINELA*II PULLING OUT OF THE CJl IN BRUSSELS WlLL MAKE INCLUDE MEMBERS OF THI OPPOSED THE 0EPL0YNEN1

SOVIET CRITICISM

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REASON IILCIUM HAD FORCVERNMNT NOW BEING FORMED N. THE NEW GOVERNMENT MAY I O

CRATIC PARTYi WHICH HAS

OF THI HAOi HINTING DOLE EAST. IN

PLONISON IN

A PRAVBA COMMENTAAY YtSTIUDAY CONOEMNED US ACTIONS IN THE GUI' AS ACTS OF PIRACY ANO REVENGE WIIREAT POWER. THE COMMENTARY SAIO TNE ACTION WAS PARTROADER STRATEGY TO SICvAI WESTERN INFLUENCE IN TNI OIL-RICHND SHOWED DISREGARD "OR OF NAVIGATION IN THE GULF. PRAVOA LINKED THE T

ASSASSINATION OF AND Ul AVIV ACT.

ABU THI

FREEDOM OF US MOVES TO THE THAT WASHINGTON

SECRET

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IM TO UNOERCUT ANY CRlOl 'AYHl ARABS 'OR ITS STRIKES ACAINST .VOA COMMENTARY^-AS^AIMIO AT PEHSJA3INC^ THE '

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HAO ITIOMS.

CLIANLO UP ARC AS Of IRANIAN IRAQI CASUALTIESHC JS-HOUR OfFENSH) SHATT AL ARAB:

MAJOR ELffUNTS Of THI IRAQI ARMY AHO RIPUBllCAN GUARDWO-PRONGED. THFUE-PHASE OfFENSBEGINNING SUNDAY CORNING.

nORNING, AHO BY YE STIROATTANCE. AND CONSOLIDATED POS

SINCE IBB ATTACKS AC* IRAN HAY HAVE SUFFI PROBABLY NOTHC SOUTH HAVE BEEF HEAVY FLOODING Will TEHRAN CAN HO LONG* ACTIONS AND.MAY HAV LINES.

'LIGHTEN THANM 'ORCES WITHDREW TO THC EAST

AS 7it

IHE POSSIBI MORE (CRCI

HI ll TAPY VICTORY InCUSH TO CROCR FLKThER THE SOUTHERN FRONT, mo equippjkt UNY Of ITS FORCES IN K IN THE NORTH. ANO IfFEHSIVE PREPARATIONS. TY OF IRAQI OFFENSIVE rfl ITS OWN OEF ENS IYE

ICVOTE

THE RECAPTURE OFAJORN BARGAIN INC CHIP IN ANY PEACE NEGOTIATIONS AND MIGHT CAUSE TEHRAN TO THIN" MORE SIRIOUSLY ASO'JT PURSUING AECOTIATIONS UNDER UN AUSP.CES. BAGHDAD "AV IN TIME SOFTEN ITS OIMANO THAT WITHDRAWAL (ROM OCCUPIEDHE MOSTORTANT Qf MUCH WAS AL MW--PMCCOC REGOT1ATIOMS. SHORT TERM. HOWEVER. IRAQIS ARI mill TO TRY TO THEIR POSiTiCN F'JRT-CR.

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1. IL MARKITS REMAIN CALM

IN THI

OILIS- -WHICH POSlBECAUSE OF HOSTILITIES PERSIAN GULF--FEll YESTERDAY. CRUOf PRICES 'OR WIST TEXAS01ATE DROPPED MORE THAN SOARRII FROM THE MONDAY HICH OF SIMILARLY. NORTH SIA BRENT PRICES WERE DOWN TOA BARREL.I XANINING

returneoLtoTT^HoTir^

TO RESUME PRODUCTIO"BOUTARRELS PER

L Ml SiftT.( PtfcTS VIEW TNI iV|NTS ON MNCAT

AN ISOLATES INCIOINT RATHERENERAL ESCA11TIONOSTILITIES AND ARI CONVINCED THE USAR* PRESENCE IN_THI CULF INSURES REUTIVEI* SAFE PASSAGE FOR THEIR TANKERS. NjtfHftfjSBSBBBIMHMM

CCNTHAR* TO PRESS REPORTS. 0f OIL PROOUCTION CAPACITY FROM THE ATTACKS MONDAY, HOT HARJAH. PART DF THI UAE FEDIRATIOH. LOSTF PROOUCTION. THI AVAHABIIITY Of SUPPLIES ELSEWHERE, COUPLED WITH THI MINIMAL FLOW. IS LIKELY TO KEEP PRICFS FROM RISING

RICAN CUITURAI CENTER IN SAN ITIIENS . . . SIMILAR TO BY J'AOICAIS PROTESTING US

tyiET

AMIRI CAS

EXPLOSION AT US-COSTA JOSE INJURED FIVE. INCLUDING TWOOMBING OF US CONSULATE TWO YEARS AGO

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SEGtTET

OTiPR 86

AIRSTRIXE AGAINST LIBYA. EUROPE

EAR SENTENCE FOR ABBAS HAHMAOI STIFFER THAN EXPECTEQ . DEMONSTRATION OF JUDICIARY'S INDEPENDENCE MAY HURT EFFORT TO FREE LAST HOSTAGE . .IZBALLAH MAY ATTACK WEST GERMAN rERESTS TO DISCOURAGE SIMILAR TREATMENT OF BROTHER MOHAHMEO.

MIDDLE EAST

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