NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 5 MAY 1988

Created: 5/5/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Spacial Anelyale

of Chemteal Waapom

btlem ere Hie Judgmentseceal InUragtn'T Mtlllgmot Memorandum (Nl) on me Impact end mpiica /out ol Cnemfce<Use In thtWar.

Chamlcal weapons and riot cont'd asems have been part ot the iraMraq war atoe tn* aartyChtmic* weapon* naveegular anfl recurring tact*ha conflict, and tneir use laoBoil- atates aopa-'enty Pave assessed thai selective um ot chemical weapon* car. augment conventional arsenate,l-'eirn ois.cc'.ivea iitiuaice certain comoat atcsrcmrhcanuy Ira mm tmmy i

Bagruec ane Tenren aooereney

rwi tacocacy eftect-v* or even dsoeo*MaMceaMbM chemicalhaa not proVdedstrategic aoemetaa or advantage. Aa long aa Iran and Iraq continue to employ crrnaniye role, neither nation villidvantaje caaeo purely on lha uae ot chemtcal

5*

Iraq hai employed such weapon-primanry Si response to karlan oflenaive actional

i havery/du*ry torm ot mustard thai atieeii prsonne: rapJTy and oan penetrate tne NATO-type semipermeable

CflBTllCtt luit I

Iran usee cnemicai -esponiery limited scale. probaPy tor leeilno or ireinhp I

lMttwajaaoftfMniaMcaaa^rateeaw

Aa more nation*hemlce; cape&Hly. mllllery and peacekeeping torcea mutt eipect the threat of either Intentional oroiue to chemical attack in any region* confilet ol tne fjture. The uae ol standard agents and agents in different forms creates unexpected wtnerablllliaa.p

ccnf.viuaS

Tit MflMtVlTTrHl^oouWMt percerva thai aasaaaajsj wW tf gMMBCMion tnePtn* ac* of rmnrngtw iciema:ionaJ functions or condanwaiMa uggest that they canhemical weapons caoaMlyeterrer* or military forca multiplier without fear ol repercuseioni

Fjralgn assistance naa Man pivotal in tha development andof me traniai andchemical warfare program s. wniM Vraifarn export controls ir-tialiy rtiaed tne coat and slowedgrame somewhat, both country have bacoma adaot al clxumvenling these controW and allarlng Ihe production processes TWr drlre for an independent and Indigenous chemical weeponi poducton capability wit, make them leu dependent onport and lias suecaptlbla to external political prsesuiee.

If the me of chance's csnilrtuee or increases. It would be an unload*hird Work) states mat ohemlca' weapon, nave military unity,ondwtda snsmicel protocol or feary could become more difficult io obtain. I

Nations that have reoantiyhemical capability ornd see chemicals as combating tha threat are not Ike* top wMllnglyflary tod-especla ly in areas of trequeM

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