CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE - 11 MAY 1988

Created: 5/11/1988

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY. UPDATE 11 8

This weekly Situation Report Is prepared by the Central America and Nicaragua Branches, Office of African and Latin American Analysis. This paper waa coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief. Middle Amerlca-Carlbbsan Division, ALA,

CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN WEEKLY UPDATE8

Nicaragua Assuaging Party Concerns

Managua's pursuitease-fire agreement with the rebels Is causing concern among Sandinlsta party loyalists. Embassy and press reports indicate that, after years of promisss that the regime would never talk with the insurgents, party rank and file are worried that the revolution will be betrayed. President

Ortega has publicly admitted that many party members

amnesty for formsr national guardsmen who served Somoza.

The regime is portraying direct talks with the rebelsogical response in dealingefeated force. Sandinlsta-controlled media continue to drive home that point, painting rebel military chief Enrique Bermudez as the major obstacle to peace and highlighting the willingness of some rebel field commandera to negotiate directly with the government. The regime also has stressed that social changes wrought bv the revolution, including land reform, are irreversible.

The Sandinistas probably will continue toine line between dealing with growing party concema and doing what is necessary to Induce the rebels to abandon their military struggle. To entice the rebels to disarm and join the national dialogue, the Sandinistas may follow through on earlier hints that they would consider military reforms and local elections thia year. They also may hope that an end to the fighting would allow them to divert resources from the military to boost party perks. [

Developmqnta Thia Weak

Democratization

Nicaraguan laborday hunger5 May after the government agreed toon wage demands and work norms,

SandlnlataB also agreed not to

narass the hunger strikers, and they releasedeople who had been arrested In connection with the protest. Political parties with ties to Independent unions hsve pledged not to return to the national dialogue until labor demands are met.

Nicaragua allowed independent Radio Corporaclon to return to the airay after it had been shut down forours, according to the official press. Another radio station was allowed to resume broadcasting news after it appealed the suspension of its newscasts.

icaragua has refused to authorize marches sponsoredopposition umbrella group, the

marches in Jinotepe on 8Department onpril did not take place because permits were denied. The Interior Ministry also threatened reprisals if indoordo not require priorwere held instead.

Ceasa-Flre/Amnesty

The official Nicaraguan press reported that seven Indisn rebel commanders androopsease-fire agreement, disarmed, and accepted amnesty onpril.ay, Managua asked the OAS to verify the surrender.

National Reconciliation

the meeting of

selected members of Central AmericanCommission in San Jose last weekacademic approaches to negotiation and but Guatemalanconferredebel leader onof the meeting. No Salvadorans attended. Nicaraguan. opposition member Maurlclo Diaz, press that the Sandinlsta government was simplypeace processactical weapon to improveagalnat both the insurgents and the

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alvadoran Foreign Minister Acavedo told

laat week that the Salvadoran National Reconciliation CooBDiaalon disbanded Itself after having completed Its work under the regional peace agreement. The CosaBisalon presumably would have to be reconstituted if the next Central American Executive CoasDiaslon meeting ratifies its prior decision that National Commissions verify compliance with political provisions of the peace accord. Acevedo said that wouldroublesome political iaaue in El Salvador, since both opposition members of the Commission hsd resigned to protest government policies.

eaya

naynormal meeting witn tne resell would probably take place later this month.

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naa no objection toeeting and that Costa Rlcan President Arias's offer to mediate had been refused.

Verification

OAS representatives told US Embassy officials in Nicaragua that they view the role of the Sapoa verification commission ss an intermediary between the government and the rebela. They believe the commiaaion will inveatigate any alleged ceaae-fire violations but will not judge whether violations actually occurred.

External Aid to Insurgents

Refugees

The Salvadoran Navyebel seaborne aupply operation off the Uaulutan coast onpril, according to the Salvadoran press. The fleeing guerrillas abandoned rifles, ammunition, and materials for explosives, which the Salvadoran Navy believes originated in Nicaragua.

Honduran troops participated- in beating Nicaraguan

Hiskito Indian men and raping women at the border village

of Rus *

government sanctioned the attack.

esult some boo inaians tied into Nicaraguafor UN protection.

have been no abuses of this type in the last several years and there la no indication that the Honduran

Costa Rican Civil Cuardsmenveep operation in the border areaay afterell-armedbelieved to be former antl-Sandlnlsta rebela--surrounded

a police team aent to arrest I

In our view, mil ana other

recent incidentaliUreater public pressure on

the government to support international arrangements to

disarm the rebels who could enter the country as

refugees.

Qjher Pevelopnentg

Costa Rlcan President Arias told the presaay that EI Salvador faces more difficulties than any other Central American country inasting peace. Ariae discounted ths poselbllity of talko for the rest of Presidentterm while noting progress in Nicaragua and guiUWitXa- ( |

Salvadoran President Duarte severelycompliance with the peace accordwith vieitlng South Dakota

Duarte says Nicaragua has reneged on

amnesty, failed to grant full press or personal freedoms, and has continued aiding the Salvadoran rebels. Salvadoran officlalo have not publicized this view in recent weeks.

Central American economic ralnlatera met in San Joseto dlacusa priority areas for aid to the regionfor the UN General Assembly sessionMay. the ministers

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believed the long shopping list in the UN draft plan was too unwieldy, snd proposed concentrating on five areas: food aid, an emergency fund for trade, energy security, external debt, and assistance for refugees. I I

Anti-Sandlnlsta rebel troops continue to move from Nicaragua into Honduras aeeking food and supplies,

An0 combatants were in Honduras asay, witheady to enter the country this week. The Honduran military is expressing increasing concern with the security situation around the Las Vegas salient, reflecting! worries of Honduran citizens In the area.

The World Court announced onay that oral arguments in Nicaragua's suit against Honduras will be heardune. The oral proceedings, like the written pleadings filed by Honduras in7 and Nicaragua inre confined to issues of jurisdiction and admissibility.

TABLE

Positions on Humanitarian Aid to the Antl-Sandlnl ntw PebelB

Tha Nicaraguan government and the anti-Sandinlata rebels are lockedispute over the interpretation of the the provision in the cease-fire agreement ofarch allowing deliveries of humanitarian aid to the rebels by neutral organizationa chosen by mutual sgreement. The Sandinistas say USHonduran cooperatlon--vlolate the Sapoa accord. The Central American Foreign Mlnlatera avoided pronouncing on the gueatlon at the April meeting of the Executive Commission.

Nicaraguan Positions

Nlcsrag'nn Government; Defense Minister Ortega said on day cease-fire was signed that he had no problem with deliverlea by private companies, so long as they were not CIAovernment backed away from this viewpril talka. Baying emphasis ahould be on International organizations . .ormal proposal for using International Red Croaa onpril

Antl-Sandlnlsta. Rebele; wanta private companies ussddeliveries . istrusts Red Cross since localSandlnlsts controlled . .grees toof supplies and means of delivery.

Sapoa Verification Commissiont OAS Secretary General Baena Soarea recently criticized US deliveries aa premature in letter to US .ther member of Commission, Cardinal Obando, told prsss onpril that Baena wrote letter in personal . Obando says he needs more factB

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Views of the Democracies

Honduras: announced onpril it would.allow US deliverlea .aya Sapoa accord provides basis forully cooperating with movement of supplies to border

Costs Rica: Preeldent Ariaa told preaapril hedeliverlea alnce Nicaragua and rebels had agreed . . ff in wake of dispute, however,! '

m aiiov

aid to children to begin immediately

Guatemala: President Cerezo

agreed in principle to allowing uaa of Guatemalan territory . . ndicated he would make public statement but has not dons so

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El Salvador: Presidsnt Duarte

would pertiit use of Salvadoran territory but needed specific rsement of the Central American Executive Commlaalon . .

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